® DoD OSINT Program: A Speculative Review Robert David Steele Founder, USMC Intelligence Command Founder, OSS Network ® The OSINT Marketplace Federal Marketplace US Spends Today: $250M Needs to Spend: $1.5B Other Governments Should Spend an Equal Amount. TOTAL: $3B/Year Corporate Marketplace Multinationals Today: $12-15B • Mostly “BI” or IT • Mediocre CI or external à la carte small stuff Small Business Today: $1B Should Increase by 10X TOTAL: $100B/Year State & Local Marketplace 50 States Spend Today: $0 Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds ($30M/state) for Community Intelligence Centers/networks Others should follow along. TOTAL: $3B/Year Associational Marketplace UN, Red Cross, Amnesty International, others: $100M Need to Spend: $1B+ Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence are the Wild Cards-potential for Google customers alone is $8B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the average. ® OSINT Matters I • "By `intelligence' we mean every sort of information about the enemy and his country-the basis, in short, of our own plans and operations." Clausewitz, On War, 1832 Emphasis Added. You get no points for just knowing secrets when they are less than 2% of what you need to know. ®® OSINT Matters II What’s on the other side of the hill? All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing what was at the other side of the hill”. Duke of Wellington quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884) ®® OSINT Matters III Strategic Planning This is what got General Schoomaker’s attention. • History • Context Operational Coordination • Current Awareness • Key Personalities/Motivators Tactical Employment • Imagery & Image Maps • Translation Support Acquisition Design • Strategic Generalizations • Critical Technologies ® Brief History of OSINT • • • • • • • • Diplomats diminished FBIS in WW II FBIS going, going…. FRD on the margin ER&A cut, cut, cut We do secrets “On your own time…” “Use the Internet” ® USMC Intelligence Experience • 1988 MCIC start-up • $10M on DODIIS • Learned 90% raw info – – – – Not secret Not online Not in English Not available from DC • No DoD focal point • No knowledge base ® US IC Response • HPSCI Forced the Issue in 1992 • FBIS claimed the turf and promptly blew it • COSPO created, DIA led & screwed it up • Markowitz tried hard, Dempsey blocked • Tenet June 1997 slam ® Meanwhile…. • 1994 Steve Emerson got it right on jihad within the US • 1996 Yossef Bodansky got it right on BL’s declaration of war • 1997 Pete Schoomaker established SOCOM OSINT ® DoD OSINT Today • • • • • OSD POC Died DIA stopped OSINT No DoD Doctrine No DoD Budget CINCS & Services & Agencies spending around $25M in complete disorder & mostly on data mining ® Data Mining is not Data Capture • Spending $250M on data mining, and less than $10M on open source data capture, is not cool. • 80% of what we need is not available to Forget about the letter, which FBIS or anyone else as requires reading the language, we are now unled, unI’ve got the stamp…so pretty! funded, and untrained. ® Meanwhile…. • 2003 SecDef quotes Bin Laden training manual as saying Al Qaeda gets 80% of its intelligence from OSINT but… • Ramps up OPSEC (good) but does not establish DoD OSINT ® Good News I • JWAC $14M • SOCOM OSINT $1M+ • Army OSINT Lab $3M (U. New Mexico) • PACOM VIC (J-8) surviving J-2 attacks • EUCOM, other CINCs spending $500K each ® Good News II • Pete Dorn did some good on the SSCI – $4.5M to Kansas – $5.5M to JFCOM • • • • NSA AIRIES $10M? CIA/DI $2M? OMB Code M320 SASC Thinking… ® Good News III • Dr. Cambone gets it. • 27 Feb 03 Exchange with Senator Warner • “Six Points Speech” – – – – – – Universal coverage Strategic warning Agile, flexible Intelligent intelligence Real-time, real-world “Exquisite intelligence” ® Proposed DoD OSINT Program • $125M start year • $1.5B FOC by 2010 • Corporations go on to: – – – – – – $150B/yr Corporate BI $15B/yr Small Business BI $8B/yr Google a la carte $1.5B/yr Homeland Security $1.5B/yr Foreign HS $1B+/yr UN/NGO • It all starts with DoD….. ® World War III Players NationStates Private Sector Bacteria E d uca tio n vs. Ca tastrop he H o m o S ap ie ns vs. B acte ria G o ve rn m e nts vs. G a n gs Citizens C itize ns vs. C o rp ora tio ns Gangs Mother Earth Water-Air-Green ® New Craft of Intelligence China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Narrowly focused! I IV Lessons of History Spies & Secrecy II III Global Coverage National Intelligence Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning Harness distributed intelligence of Nation ® Baker’s Dozen Approach • Digital History Project • NGO Data Warehouse • Global Coverage Virtual International Task Forces • Generic Open Source Intelligence Training (for all seven tribes) • JFCOM Lead to Create Generic Analytic Tool-Kit • Five Regional OSINT Centers (Multi-National) • International Trade Center • Digital Marshall Plan (also JFCOM/ATC lead) • University of the Republic ® Digital History Project • Digital History Project will, within one year, digitize essential Chinese & Islamic pages, and such other foreign language historical, political, economic, social, and related information, as needed to create a foundation for rapidly visualizing and modeling historical information relevant to current and projected threats. $5M Yr 1 ® NGO Data Warehouse • NGO Data Warehouse and Network will provide free storage and network access to all NGOs, and will in cooperation with the Pearson Peacekeeping Center in Canada, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and selected lead elements of the NGO community, put vital NGO “local knowledge” online for US use. $10M Yr 1 ® Global Coverage Teams • Global Coverage “Virtual International Task Forces” will establish a series of topical task forces to manage global force protection monitoring and rapid response surge assessments. A special emphasis will be placed on long-term topics not qualifying for classified collection and analysis but still vital to national security. $10M Yr 1 ® Generic OSINT Training • Generic Open Source Intelligence Training Program will create distance learning modules as well as 4-person MTT to visit every CINC, every ally, every Embassy, every NGO, and key universities as well as key corporations, all of which will be voluntarily integrated into a global information-sharing grid. Early emphasis will be on shared templates for data capture. $10M Yr 1 ® Generic Analytic Tool-Kit • JFCOM, perhaps building on the Future Intelligence Collaborative Environment (FICE) will develop a generic multi-media analytic toolkit integrating all eighteen of the functionalities identified in 1985 by the Office of Scientific & Weapons Research. This tool-kit will be readily available to all seven intelligence tribes, internationally. $10M Yr 1 ® Regional OSINT Centers • Regional multi-national and multi-tribal OSINT Centers will be established by each of the five area commanders including NORTHCOM. Such centers will fully leverage indigenous allied and coalition partner access to local knowledge that is not digital, and to native language skills not available to US forces. $50M Yr 1 ® Regional Intelligence Center C hief of C ente r S ing apor e D eputy for C ollec tio n A us tralia O S IN T H U M IN T IM INT S IG INT D eputy for P roc es s in g M alay s ia D igitiz atio n T rans latio n V is ualiz atio n A naly tic S uppor t Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan D eputy for A naly s is C hin a W arnin g E s tim ativ e C ountrie s Is s ues Deputy for Covert Action Thailand ® International Trade Center • An International Trade Center and Chamber of Commerce Network will establish a webbased means of connecting and leveraging the local knowledge of all US General Managers stationed overseas, while enhancing US business access to risk and other warning information funded by the DoD OSINT Program. $5M Yr 1 ® Digital Marshall Plan • The Digital Marshall Plan, with JFCOM (and ATC in the lead for NATO) will fund the accelerated introduction of Internet connectivity to areas now “dark” for U.S. forces, with a special emphasis on Muslim countries. Abandoned DoD satellite bandwidth will be repurposed to provide free T-3 connectivity where possible. $10M Yr 1 ® University of the Republic • The University of the Republic, with a Global Outreach Program, will bring together and educate “cohorts” of promising entry-level, mid-career, and senior-level subject-matter experts from across all seven tribes and across all nations, in this manner creating a multi-generational international SME reserve expert on all topics/countries. $15M Yr 1 ® Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Pol Terror Level 3 Imprisonment, executions Pol Terror Level 4 Large numbers, torture Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman Pol Terror Level 5 Entire public, no limits ® Global Threats to Local Survival Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Food Security 33 Countries Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Corruption Common 80 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 ® Four Different Threats to America: Require Four Different Security Approaches PHYSICAL STEALTH, HIGH TECH PRECISION BRUTES TARGETING (BIG WAR) ECONOMIC WAR HIGH TECH CYBER STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY SEERS (HOME) CULTURAL WAR NATURAL LOW TECH STEALTH, BRUTES RANDOM (GANGS) TARGETING TERRORISM LOW TECH SEERS IDEO - (POOR) STEALTH, MASS TARGETING ® NATO OSINT ® European Intelligence Network • Open borders demand regional intelligence • Decades of lax control over immigration & citizenship demand aggressive policing • EUROPOL won’t do • Europe has a chance to do something brilliant ® New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance within national security. 1 i i i CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol Reserve Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security Reserve Environment Electronic Peace Navy Public Health 50% 250B vs. 400B 15% 75B vs 20B 20% 100B vs. 20B 15% 75B vs. 32B ® We Can Do This! • Lead to the Big Dogs: – Lockheed Martin – Northrop Grumman – Boeing, Booz, etc. • Help Each Other or Get Out of the Way • OSINT Professional Association Needed? • OSINT has arrived.