TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM
ZONAS SISMICAS
Victor A. Huérfano
MAPA DE INUNDACION
Aurelio Mercado
PR TWMP
Saving lives and property depends on how well the community is prepared
Bathymetry/Topographic data
Population and Infrastructure
Hypothetical Tsunami Scenarios
(Seismology/Previous work)
Computer Simulations
Initial Conditions
(Mansinha and Smylie)
Propagation and run up
(TIME project, Shuto)
Real Time Monitoring
Forecasting
Observations
Observations
Numerical Modeling
Numerical Data Base
Historical Observations
Instrumental Data Base
Alert System
Worst Case Scenario
Vulnerability
Messages
(Protocols)
Tsunami Hazard Planning
Education and Outreach
ZONAS SISMICAS Y SISMICIDAD LOCAL
BACKGROUND
Puerto Rico
Dominican Rep.
Virgin
Islands
Cuba
Lesser
Antilles
Jamaica
Haiti
Trinidad
PLATE BOUNDARIES
Septentrional Fault
Mona
Canyon
North America
Plate
Puerto Rico Trench
19ºN Fault Zone
Anegada Passage
Muertos Trough
Caribbean
Plate
Cocos
Plate
South America
Plate
1670 MM = VII, San Germán y San Juan
1787 M @7-8,MM = VII-VIII, Costa Norte, Este y Oeste
1867 M =7.3, MM = VIII, Islas Vírgenes, Tsunami 20’
1918 M = 7.3, MM = VIII, Área Oeste de PR, Tsunami 20’
1943 M = 7.5, MM = V, Noreste de Puerto Rico
EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS
and
Active Volcanoes
1943
1842
1564
1946
1670
1787
1867
Soufriere
1770
1918
1751
Kick’em Jenny
Shepherd, et al, (1992)
1670 MM = VII, San Germán y San Juan
1787 M @7-8,MM = VII-VIII, Costa Norte, Este y Oeste
1867 M =7.3, MM = VIII, Islas Vírgenes, Tsunami 20’
1918 M = 7.3, MM = VIII, Área Oeste de PR, Tsunami 20’
1943 M = 7.5, MM = V, Noreste de Puerto Rico
EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS
and
Active Volcanoes
1842
300 (???) casualties
1918
1867
40 (100) casualties
17 casualties
1780
300 (???) casualties
Soufriere
1692
1946
2000 (???) casualties
100 (1790) casualties
Kick’em Jenny
Shepherd, et al, (1992)
MEDICIONES DE GPS
Jansma, 2000
TSUNAMIS EN PUERTO RICO
Intensity
H (m)
I-V
< 1.0
VI
2.0
VII-VIII
4.0
IX-X
8.0
XI
16.0
XII
32.0
PLACAS TECTONICAS: Sismicidad Mundial
CARIBBEAN PLATE
PUERTO RICO
Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez
(2006)
DISTRIBUCION LOCAL DE SISMICIDAD
Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
(J. Joyce)
(ten Brink)
(P. Dillon)
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
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( Masson
and
Scanlon )
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PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
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( D. Larue )
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
(N. Grindlay )
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
(W. McCann )
ZONAS SISMICAS Y MODELAJE NUMERICO
PRT-B
Segments: 27
Maximum M: 8.0
PUERTO
Recurrence T: 3800
SEPTENTRIONAL F.
Segments: 14
Maximum M: 7.8 (ref)
Recurrence T: 1900
EASTERN DR.
Segments: 9
Maximum M: 7.2
Recurrence T: 800
19ºN
Faults: 102
Segments: 16
SOMBRERO SZ
M: 7.6
Segments: 24
Segments:
268Maximum
MONA
CANYON
Recurrence T: 3300
Maximum M: 7.7
Segments:
24
Maximum
M
(Faults):
7.6
Recurrence T: 1200
Maximum M: 7.5
NORTH PLATFORM
Maximum
Recurrence
T: 2000 M (Segments): 7.2
Segments: 25
ANEGADA P.
Seismic Catalogue:
10031
Maximum
M: 6.8
Segments: 28
Recurrence
T:
2500
SOUTHWESTERN
Waveform Catalogue: 3518
Maximum M: 7.7
Segments: 36
Recurrence T: 3700
Quakes
Maximum
M: 6.6used: 4422
Recurrence
Depth:T:≤1800
50 km
LEEWARD LZ.
Offshore Seismicity
Segments: 11
MUERTOS T.
Completeness:
3.2 Ml (Outside)
Maximum M: 7.0
Segments:
28
Maximum M: 7.7
Recurrence T: 3700
( Huérfano )
RICO REGION
PRT-A
Segments: 24
Maximum M: 8.0
Recurrence T: 3800
Recurrence T: 3000
PR-TWMP Numerical Data Base
TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ATACK
HYPOCENTER
GEOMETRY, SIZE and TIMING
MALLAS UTILIZADAS EN LAS SIMULACIONES
A : 27 sec/arc
B : 9 sec/arc
C : 3 sec/arc
Geometry
Size…….
{
R5:
Strike = 122
Dip = 80
Rake = 90
Mw = 7.7
TSUNAMI
INUNDATION MAP
Salinas, PR
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puerto rico fault systems - Red Sísmica de Puerto Rico