ICIMOD – The Mountain Institute
International Workshop on Climate Change
Adaptation in Mountains
Nepal, 25-26 September 2011
Climate Change, GLOF risk and glacial lake
monitoring in Cordillera Apolobamba,
Bolivia
Dirk Hoffmann
Instituto Boliviano de la Montaña - BMI
Bolivian Mountain Institute
Preliminary considerations 1
rapid retreat of
mountain glaciers
is the most visible sign of
global warming
Preliminary considerations 2
what is happening with glaciers
worldwide is probably also happening
– silently and largely invisible to the
majority of the people –
to the ecosystems around the world
Preliminary considerations 3
given the present rate of
climate change,
in 20 years´ time the world
is likely to look very different
than what we can now
imagine
Climate Change is a fact.
Scientists are only debating the velocity and the
magnitude of the impacts.
Climate Change is a reality in the
Bolivian Andes
• Temperature,
precipitation and
humidity have changed
considerably over last
50 years
• Temperature increase is
now about 0.3 C per
decade
• Temperature increase is
higher at higher
altitudes
Global warming in mountain regions
Source: Bradley et al. 2006
The 2-degrees target
• The UN Climate Change Convention calls for limiting
global warming to levels that do not interfere
dangerously with the global climate system.
• Political consensus: 2 degrees C as a limit
• Reality: This is no more possible („warming in the
pipeline“)
• September 2009: Scientific conference in Oxford to
discuss a world four degrees warmer (in 2100,
compared to pre-industrial times)
Global temperature 500 - 2100
IPCC, 2001
Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels
What are the consequences for Bolivian
glaciers?
Glacier retreat in Bolivia
• Due to global warming, the world’s tropical
glaciers are retreating at an unprecedented
rate.
• The accelerated melting of glaciers - as in
most parts of the world - commenced around
1980.
• Tropical glaciers: Peru 70%, Bolivia 20%,
Ecuador & Columbia 4%, rest of the world 1%
• According to the World Glacier Monitoring
Service (WGMS), Bolivia holds 566 km² of
glaciated area (data from 80s).
Direct visual impact
Laguna Moro Kholla, Cordillera Real
March 2007
October 2009
Photos: Hoffmann
Glacier retreat in the Cordillera Real
• The volume changes of 21 glaciers in the Cordillera Real
have been determined between 1963 and 2006 using
photogrammetric measurements.
• From this relationship, the ice volume loss of 376
glaciers has been assessed in this region.
• The results show that these glaciers lost 43% of their
volume and 48% of their surface area between 1975
and 2006.
Cordillera Real: 50 % reduction in surface area and
volume over the last 35 years.
Soruco, A., C. Vincent, B. Francou, and J. F. Gonzalez (2009), Glacier decline
between 1963 and 2006 in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36,
L03502, doi:10.1029/2008GL036238.
Huayna Potosí summit, 6.088m
August 2003
October 2009
El ejemplo del Chacaltaya
Izquierda: competencia de ski en los años 70
Derecha: el parche superior del Glaciar Chacaltaya, 2005
Glacier retreat across the tropical Andes
0
-200
-50000
-400
-100000
-600
-150000
antizana 15A
antizana15b
-800
-200000
yanam arey
broggi
-1000
-250000
pastoruri
uruashraju
-1200
Cajap
-300000
Cumulative area evolution (m²)
Cumulative length evolution (m)
0
Zongo (area)
-1400
Charquini-S (area)
-350000
Chacaltaya (area)
-1600
1930
-400000
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Edson Ramírez, Instituto de Hidráulica e Hidrología (IHH)
Glacial lakes and outburst floods
• The recent forming of
glacial lakes in the
Andes dates from the
end of the Little Ice
Age (1550-1850), but
has increased sharply
in the 1980s.
• GLOFs have been
reported from Peru
(e.g. Huaráz, 1941),
the Himalayas and
other high mountain
regions of the world.
• A first documented case for
Bolivia occurred in the Keara
watershed in the Cordillera
Apolobamba in November 2009.
The Keara GLOF incident, November 2009
All photos: Martín Apaza Ticona
Apolobamba glacier lake inventory
• Undertaken by Daniel Weggenmann, Heidelberg
University
• Following Huggel methodolgy:
- using easily available satellite images
- overview of all existing lakes
- determination of age, size, volume, growth rates,
material of dam, distance to glacier
- classification according to risk potential
- field visit to selected glacial lakes
The Cordillera Apolobamba
• Apolobamba mountain range accounts for about
7.5% of the world’s tropical glaciers. Yet, there is
almost no documentation available on glacial retreat.
The geographical setting:
Apolobamba mountain range
• Northernmost part of the
Eastern branch of the
Andean Cordillera in Bolivia;
bordering with Peru
• 120 km long
• About 250 km northwest
of La Paz and north of Lake
Titicaca
• One of the least explored
and least accessible
mountain ranges in the
Andes
• Various peaks higher
than 5,500 m
Apolobamba glacier area
• Largest continuous glaciated area in Bolivia, with an extent of
220 km² (in the 1980s).
Source: World Glacier
Monitoring Service (WGMS)
Source: Google Earth
Glacier area loss in the Cordillera Apolobamba
1976 - 2009
Elaboration:
R. Tarquino
Glacier retreat in Cordillera Apolobamba
1976 - 2009
Elaboration: Rodrigo Tarquino
Area loss more than 50%
Satelite image of Apolobamba glaciers
(Cololo region)
Glacier lake Ulla Khaya
Glacier lake
Laguna Isquillani
Results of glacier lake inventory
• From 1986 – 2008 the number of contemporary
glacier lakes went up from 174 to 216
• Total lake area grew by aprox. 2.5 km²
• Information integrated in GIS data base
• List of the potentially most dangerous lakes
• Recommendations for future monitoring
The Apolobamba Glacier Lake Inventory
Daniel Weggenmann 2011
The participatory approach to
glacial lake monitoring
• Monitoring system of ANMIN Apolobamba, an
essential tool of park managment.
• Monitoring “by the people of the protected area”,
i.e. park guards and local population.
• Assistance from NGOs and university.
• What is being monitored: Water bodies, glaciers,
traditional types of potatoes, fauna, peat bogs
(bofedales), climate, conflicts with wild life, mining,
knowledge about traditional plants, tourism, project
management, education, financial management...
Apolobamba Protected Area
Área Natural de Manejeo Integrado (ANMIN)
• Declared in 1972 as National Reserve Ulla Ulla for the
protection of the vicuna (240,000 ha).
• Recognized as a
UNESCO Biosphere
Reserve in 1977.
• Expanded to
Apolobamba Natural
Area for Integrated
Management in 2000
(now 483,743 ha).
• Altitudinal range from
800 to more than 6,000
metres.
Photo: Hoffmann
Map of Apolobamba
Source: SERNAP
Measuring high
altitude lakes
Institutional set-up
University/Science
Ecological Institute/UMSA, La Paz
Oxford University, UK
Heidelberg University, Germany
State
SERNAP – Protected Areas
Administration
Local population
NGOs
WCS – Wildlife Conservation Society
BMI – Bolivian Mountain Institute
Perspectives
• Long term glacier and glacier lake monitoring as
integral part of park management (SERNAP & local
people) on the basis of thesis work and glacier lake
inventory prepared by D. Weggenmann, Heidelberg
University as part of thesis on GLOFs and risk
management
• Definition and implementation of adaptation measures
(local people, municipalities, NGOs)
• Continuing documentation and establishment of a Bolivian
glacier archive (BMI)
• Accompanying scientific work:
- R. Tarquino, Instituto de Ecología: consequences of
glacier retreat for park management
- C.K. López, FLACSO Ecuador: water management by
local indigenous communities
www.climate2011.net
Thank you for your attention!
Instituto Boliviano
de la Montaña - BMI
Contact:
[email protected]
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glaciers - Cambio Climático Bolivia