China and the Global
Publishing Market
Publishing Workshop, Beijing, September 4, 2007
H. Dirk Koehler, Publisher, The World Bank, Washington, DC
I want to thank Kathleen Louise Peddle, intern in the World Bank’s Office of the
Publisher for her support in researching and putting together these slides.
1
Number of Native Speakers
(millions)
1,400
1,212
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
341
322
125
200
78
0
Mandarin
English
Spanish
Japanese
French
Source: http://encarta.msn.com/media_701500404/Languages_Spoken_by_More_Than_10_Million_People.html
2
More than Native Speakers…
1378
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,200
1,000
800
178
600
941
400
600
200
600
341
China
English-Speaking World
0
Population
(millions)
Number of Native Number of 2ndNative and 2ndSpeakers (millions) language speakers language speakers
(millions)
The English-Speaking World’s population includes Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, UK, US, Guyana, Jamaica, Bangladesh, India,
Pakistan and Sri Lanka
3
Distribution of Native English Speakers
in the Major Publishing Markets
(millions)
South Africa, 4
New Zealand, 4
Australia, 15
Canada, 18
United Kingdom, 58
US, 215
Total 314 m
4
Distribution of the Total Number of Native
and Second-Language English Speakers
(millions)
Other, 220
New Zealand, 4
India, 350
South Africa, 14
Australia, 17
Canada, 25
US, 251
UK, 60
Total 941 m
5
From Speakers to Book Markets
Population, GDP and PPP GNI 2005
40,000
36,342
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
16,811
Mandarin
English
15,000
10,000
5,000
6,600
1,305
2,234
460
0
Population
(millions)
GDP (US$ bn)
PPP GNI per
capita (US$)
6
From Speakers to Book Markets…
Adult Literacy and Secondary School Enrollment 2005
100%
98.16%
90%
80%
99.04%
91%
70%
73%
60%
Mandarin
50%
English
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Adult Literacy
Secondary School Enrollment
7
Distribution of Annual Sales
China and the English-Speaking World
Approximate Sales Revenue 2006 US$bn
China, 15.6
English-speaking
countries, 35.91
Total US$ 51bn
8
Distribution of Annual Sales
The English-Speaking World
Approx Sales US$bn 2006
Canada, 1.9
New Zealand, 0.2
Australia, 1
South Africa, 0.3
UK, 3.71
US, 28.8
Total 35.91 US$bn
9
The United States of America
 28.2 US$ bn sales per annum
 15,000 publishing companies
 195,000 new titles published per annum
 5,238 booksellers
 6,000 public libraries
 58 million broadband subscribers
 211 million Internet users
10
SWOT Analysis of the US Market
Strengths
Weaknesses
 Positive development forecast, estimated 18%
 Inhospitable market for translations into
growth in next 5 years
 Trade sector accounts for 31% of total sales
 New title development strong = 195K in 2004
(52% of the new title output of all the Englishlanguage countries)
 English-language publishers (mostly US but
also English world) produced 40% of the world’s
book content in 2004
 Strong home base enables expansion into
other markets (e.g. Europe, China?, multinational
publishers)
 International leader in technology (e-publishing)
English from other languages (only 3% of the
books on sale were translations in 2004)
 Recent growth in new title output has been
driven by ‘soft’ categories i.e. adult fiction,
religion and children’s books
 Decline in science and technology books,
burst in computer books ‘bubble’
 Inward looking, risk of isolationism
 Reading culture in decline, new media in
upswing (shorter attention span)
Opportunities
Threats
 Enormous size of US/Can. Market
 Weakened competitiveness due to high costs
 Minorities not well served
and prices
 Foreign-owned publishers
 Dynamic market, open to innovations
11
The United Kingdom
 3.71 US$ bn sales per annum
 2,275 publishing companies
 200,000 new titles published per annum
 3,100 booksellers
 4,600 public libraries
 13 million broadband subscribers
 38 million Internet users
12
Australia
1 US$ bn sales per annum
 Approx 450 publishing companies
 Approx 10,000 new titles published per annum
 2,300 booksellers
 2000 public libraries
 4 million broadband subscribers
 15 million Internet users
 Approx
13
Canada
 2 US$ bn sales per annum
 493 publishing companies
 11,500 new titles published per annum
 2,000 booksellers
 8 million broadband subscribers
 22 million Internet users
14
South Africa
 0.3 US$ bn sales per annum
 158 publishing companies
 3,000 new titles published per annum
 580 booksellers
 1,200 public libraries
 0.3 million broadband subscribers
 5.1 million Internet users
15
New Zealand
 0.2 US$ bn sales per annum
 100 publishing companies
 2,266 new titles published per annum
 370 booksellers
 0.6 million broadband subscribers
 3.2 million Internet users
16
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The English-Language Publishing Market