CARE Agriculture and Natural
Resources Strategy
‘Global Agriculture Review’
Julia Berazneva, Louise Buck, Patricia Casal,
Phoebe Garfinkel, Micah Ingalls, David Lee
Courtney Wallace
Cornell University and EcoAgriculture Partners
18, 2009
I. Pathways of change in
CARE’s Agriculture and
Natural Resources Program
II. Drivers of change in
agriculture and food
availability and their impact
on CARE’s target populations
Global Drivers of Change in Agriculture
and Natural Resources Sectors
Driver: Any natural- or human-induced factor that directly
or indirectly brings about change in production, marketing
and institutional support systems for agriculture and natural
Drivers are numerous and layered (Hazel and Wood, 2007)
9 Key Global Drivers:
Population pressure and food distribution
Increasing concentration of population in urban areas
Globalization of the food and agriculture system
Changing consumer preferences
Agriculture land use for non-food products and services
Natural resources scarcity
Climate change
HIV/AIDS Prevelance
Information and Communication Technology Advances
Population pressure and food distribution
• Human population is expected to grow from 6 billion in
2007, to nearly 9 billion by 2050, increasing global demand for food
by 50% next two decades (Hazel & Wood 2007), 70-100% by 2050
(Godfrey et al 2010)
• Hunger due not to food production, but to access to food:
– Purchasing power (income distribution)
– Food price and distribution (markets, infrastructure and policy)
(UN Millenium Project 2005, MEA 2005, von Braun 2005, FAO 2006)
• ‘Global food crisis’ of 2008: changes in food prices affect
food supply with some long term effects (Evans 2008).
• Concerns at regional and local levels:
– Hunger and malnutrition: 1.2 billion people living in poverty,
90% South Asia and Africa, 75% rural who depend on agriculture
– Increase in agriculture demand: land and water requirements
– Environmental impacts: ecosystem services, health risks
– Large, persistant spatial differences
(Cassman & Wood 2005)
Population pressure and food distribution
Per capita agricultural output (including food) has increased
in recent decades: scientific and technological advances allowed
intensification and reduced the demand for land (FAO, 2006)
Future increases in population and staple food needs are expected in
LDCs. Development of domestic agriculture play and important role.
• By 2030 the
world is
expected to
have 79% of
the world’s
urban dwellers
(Caballero 2002)
• Of the 3 billion people living
in urban centers, 1 billion
are living in slums; by 2030,
this figure will double (World Watch
• Asia and Africa’s urban populations are expected to double
to 3.4 billion by 2030 (World Watch Institute 2007)
• Urbanization creates a change in food environments that
directly impact dietary intake and consumer preferences:
(Mendez 2004)
• Men and women enter workforce and have less time for
food production and preparation
(FAO 2004)
• Increasing incomes increase food purchases in urban
(FAO 2004)
• Diets in urban areas tend to be higher in polished grains,
fats, sugars and processed and packaged foods
Globalization of agriculture
and food systems
Globalization means integration of inputs and outputs into global
markets, global sharing of information and knowledge, and global
rules governing such integration.
• Globalization can greatly
enhance the role of
agriculture as an engine of
growth by making it
possible for agriculture to
grow considerably faster
than domestic
• It can also increase food
security through
stimulating demand for
rural, labor-intensive, nontradable goods and
services (FAO 2003).
Globalization of agriculture
and food systems
Requirements to benefit from globalization: perfect knowledge and
frictionless movements of finance, inputs, output, information, and
science across vast geographic areas.
The extent and pace of globalization of agriculture differs by country.
Implications of Globalization:
– Trade liberalization: increased competition in domestic and export
markets, cost reductions in one place have immediate impacts in
other places, role of multilateral and regional trade agreements
– Integrated financial and capital markets: increase in the level of FDI
• Between 1990 and 2004 FDI stock more than tripled in
agriculture and roughly quadrupled in the food processing sector
(von Braun and Díaz-Bonilla 2008)
– Structural changes in agricultural markets and increasing role of
private sector: vertical market integration and consolidation of
market power
– Changes in global and domestic prices: lower world prices due to
productivity gains, but slow transmission of lower prices to domestic
markets due to inefficiencies, increase in retail-level food prices and
their high variability
Globalization of agriculture
and food systems
Implications of the globalized agrifood system for
development and poverty (von Braun and Díaz-Bonilla 2008):
– Changing environment for innovation and information:
• growing level of involvement of the private sector
• increasingly proprietary and competitive research environment
• slowing down of public-sector research expenditure
– Increasing commercialization of small producers:
increasing competitiveness
adverse effects on net sellers of food in inefficient sectors
potential to benefit from vertical integration with agribusinesses
displacement of traditional agriculturalists
– Changes in trade and domestic markets toward a global agrifood
business chain:
• trade and agricultural policies shaped by multilateral, regional, and
bilateral agreements
• influence of private rules such as quality standards
– Consumer-driven agrifood systems:
• greater quality and safety concerns
• reorganization of food chains including supermarkets and agroprocessors
• changing consumers’ preferences
Changing consumer preferences
• Rising incomes in the middle
class, urbanization, and
population growth, are
driving demand for meat,
seafood and other animal
products (FAO 2009)
Source: World Watch 2008
• Livestock contribute 40
Source: World Watch 2008
percent of the global value of
agricultural output and
support the livelihoods and
food security of almost a
billion people (FAO 2009)
Changing consumer preferences
Changing consumer preferences are due to:
1) Urbanization
2) Rising incomes
3) Globalized trade in the agriculture sector
4) Foreign Direct Investment in food processing and retail sectors
(Hawkes 2008)
Dominance of retail food sector has changed the rules of
the game for producers and consumers: “markets” are now
“super-markets” (Reardon 2003)
Consumer preference shifts are beginning to extend beyond
urban areas (Mendez 2004)…
• …but rural areas still struggle with fragmented markets, poor
productivity and high levels of food insecurity
(FAO 2004)
Agricultural land use for Biofuels
• Rapid growth in recent years and projected to continue,
increasing land requirements for biofuels (Royal Society 2008)
– Ethanol: global production tripled (2000-2007), 5.46% share on
global gasoline use.
– Biodiesel: global productionincreased eleven-fold (2000-2007),
1.5% share in global diesel fuel use (UNEP 2009)
• Motivations for biofuel production
– GHG mitigation, they appeared to be carbon-neutral
– Energy security, alternative fuel to meet the demand
• Country production
– Ethanol: 90% Brazil (sugarcane), USA (maize)
– Biodiesel: 75% EU (France, Germany)
– Ethanol and biodiesel based in agricultural feedstocks
(sugarcane, palm oil, jatropha, cassava, rice, wheat..): rapid
expansion in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia) and Latin
America (World Bank 2007)
Agricultural land use for biofuels
Support mechanisms:
Economic Incentives: incentives and subsidies (public and private)
made possible the rapid growth of biofuel production - necessary to
develop a competitive industry (UNEP 2009)
Policy support: blending mandates (10-15% ethanol, 2-5% biodiesel)
and country targets (17 countries by 2006) (World Bank 2007)
Support at different
levels of biofuel
production chain.
Source: FAO, 2007
Agricultural land use for biofuels
Concerns related to biofuel demand:
• Pressures on food security
– New demand for agricultural feedstocks, increasing competition
for natural resources (land, water)
– Increase in price of food crops, competition food vs. fuel,
increasing food insecurity and poverty (particularly in urban
areas) (FAO 2008)
• Life-cycle GHG emissions and evironmental impacts
– Emissions assessment requires LCA, including land-use change
derived emissions and inputs (stardards) (Royal Society 2008)
– LU and intensification affects water quality and availability
– LU/LUC threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services (FAO 2008)
Agricultural land use for
ecosystem services
• Agricultural landscapes provide critical ecosystem
services on which people’s livelihood depends:
– Biodiversity conservation
Pest and disease control
Water availability and filtration
Erosion control
Productive soil
Vegetation cover
Carbon sequestration
Recreational opportunities, aesthetic beauty, cultural identity
By making better use of water and land and providing such environmental
services as managing watersheds, agriculture can make growth more
environmentally sustainable (UNEP 2009, World Bank 2008)
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
Forest resource degradation and scarcity
– Livelihood basis for 1.6
billion people (CIFOR 2008)
– Aggregate loss of 13
million ha/year natural
forest (CIFOR 2008)
– High local variation in both
gross change and rate of
change (FAO 2007)
Rate of loss:
1st Nigeria 11.1%/year
2nd Viet Nam 10%/year
Degradation of forest resources is
primarily driven by:
• Conversion of forest to agricultural land
• Logging (USD99 billion/year) (CIFOR 2008)
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
Water and Aquatic Resources- primary resource
constraint of future decades
Current water shortages
are severe and growing,
expected to be greatly
exacerbated by GCC.
Driven by:
• Agricultural
consumption primary
• Changing climate
Coloured areas to experience water-stress (Vorosmarty et al 2000)
Erosion of global freshwater fisheries primarily driver by
decreasing water quality and quantity, driven by
agricultural conversion.
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
Land degradation by agricultural practices
• 40% of
agricultural lands
degradation, 16%
degraded (FAO 1999)
• Salinization of
irrigated soils1.5 million
(Foley et al 2005)
Drivers of unsustainable agricultural
• Increasing demand from population pressures
• Trade liberalization, growing income
disparities, poor governance
Natural resources
degradation and scarcity
• Ecosystem functioning
and the provision ES
• Provision of non-farm
food sources
• Source of new genetic
material for crop
cultivars- major losses
anticipated (CGIAR 2009)
Biodiversity change scenarios to 2100 (Sala et al 2008)
Key drivers:
• Land conversion from natural forest,
which also impact aquatic systems (Sala et
al 2008)
• Exacerbated by population pressures and
global climate change
Climate change
• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
(IPCC 2007).
• Climate change increases risk and vulnerability and undermines
human resilience. Distribution of climate change effects is uneven
across time and space but developing countries and poor people are
disproportionately affected.
Main consequences:
– Higher average temperatures, changing rainfall patterns,
decreasing water availability and water quality, rising sea
levels, species extinction
– Increase in variability and unpredictability of extreme
weather events
– Resulting impacts on agricultural prices, production and
– Impacts on per capital calorie consumption and child
Climate change
– Increase in the number of people affected by natural disasters
and in the scale of economic damage
– Increased migration and displacement
2°C temperature
rise above preindustrial levels
means 1 to 2
billion more
people suffering
from increased
water stress and
100 to 400 million
more people at
risk of hunger
(WDR 2010).
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Estimated adult HIV prevalence for countries (2007)
Source: UNAIDS, 2008
In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is depleting the region of its food producers and farmers,
decimating the agricultural labour force for generations to come.
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Key facts:
• HIV/AIDS threats rural development: over two thirds of
the population of the 25 most-affected countries live in rural
areas. AIDS mostly affects the productive age group (15-50
years). The loss of productive members affects household
capacity to produce and buy food in those comunities.
• The pandemic is shifting from urban to rural areas:
today, 95% of people living with, and dying of, HIV/AIDS are
in developing countries. The overwhelming majority are the
rural poor, and among them women figure disproportionately.
• Most of the response to the epidemic has come from the
health sector. However, HIV/AIDS is more than a health issue,
up to 80% of the people in most affected countries
depend on agriculture for their subsistence. The
agricultural sector cannot continue with “business as usual”, a
new focus on agricultual responses is needed (FAO, 2006a).
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Impacts of HIV/AIDS
• The consequences of HIV/AIDS contribute to making the rural
poor more vulnerable to infection: poverty, food insecurity,
malnutrition, reduced labour force and loss of local knowledge.
• The agricultural sector has a critical role to play in breaking
this cycle. Through actions that support sustainable agriculture
and rural development, CARE has an opportunity to contribute
preventing and mitigating the impacts of HIV/AIDS (FAO 2006a).
• HIV/AIDS exacerbates gender-based differences in access to
resources and social exclusion. Women’s productive activities
decrease due to their role as care providers, as well as their
contribution to household income. Increased need for cash
income sometimes results in sex work. Increase in gender
inequality results in a decrease in access to land, credit and
knowledge, for women in general and, in particular for widows
(FAO-Dimitra 2005, FAO 2006b).
HIV/AIDS prevalence
Some strategies FAO is working on that
represent opportunities for CARE to engage
in and collaborate:
• Supporting diversity, gender equality and human rights,
• Reducing the stigma that accompanies HIV/AIDS, and
• Building partnerships and developing creative synergies with
other sectors, and wrking with other stakeholders.
• Helping develop formal and informal institutions (schools,
extension services, …) to preserve local knowledge and
transmit it across generations.
• Participating in the development and implementation of
labour saving technologies and practices, such as low-input
agriculture, tools, improved seed varieties, intercropping,
minimum tillage, access to potable water, fuel-efficient stoves
that can free women for productive activities, etc.
Advances in Information
Communication Technology (ICT)
• Advances in ICTs are coming about through the merging of
information technologies (mainly computer systems) and
communication technologies (particularly cell phones).
• Smallholder farmers in developing countries, as well as
researchers and extension workers, can benefit from current
ICTs: access market information; collect data on crop
production, environment, farming techniques, etc; access
geographic information and share knowledge
(Ballantyne, Maru and Porcari, 2009).
• For small, resource poor farmers and producers in developing
countries, applications of ICTs have not yet become
mainstream due to low economic returns from agriculture and
lack of access to affordable technology (CGIAR Science Forum,
• Mobile phone has revolutionized the lives of millions of urban
and rural poor by connecting and involving them in viable
economic activities (Samii, 2010).
Advances in Information
Communication Technology (ICT)
• Mobile subscribers in Africa have reached 448.1 million
(54% of the total population) and are expected to reach 561
million by 2012.
• In Africa, mobile phones allow those excluded from
telecommunications infrastructure to take an active part in
improving their livelihoods due to the affordable pricing
schemes of mobile services. This social and economic
inclusion has led to the willingness of poor rural households
to spend 4-8% of their income on mobile telephony.
• Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009
(World Economic Forum to INSEAD): "mobile telecommunications
has had a positive disruptive impact on life in many
developing economies, especially in rural areas."
• Mobile telephony is providing poor rural people with a point
of contact allowing them to take part in the economic
system and enter in the job market.
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Ecoagriculture approach to sustainable biofuel production