®
The C4I Revolution:
Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, &
Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing President
Bush Has Done Improves National Security
Robert David Steele
OSS.NET
9 January 2003
San Antonio, Texas
®
9-11: Systemic Failure
®
9-11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot
• Collection:
– Satellites deaf
– Spies incompetent
• Data entry: FBI still in
pencil & paper mode
• Translation: lack of
personnel or funds
• Processing: no single
central OpIntel “plot”
• Analysis
– Did not connect the
dots (dots found to
have been known)
– Marginally-qualified
analysts (no language,
culture, history)
• Liaison: “business as
usual,” no demands
• Mind-set: muddled
®
9-11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog
• World Trade Center
1st Bombing
– Sidelined to law
enforcement
– Documents not
translated
– Ignored bin Laden’s
open declaration of war
– No change to visa or
border security process
• Global Terrorism
– Ignored warnings on
cockpit and airport
safety (industry against)
– Accepted bombings of 2
embassies, a barracks,
and a naval vessel as
“cost of doing business”
– Accepted lack of action
by other nations
®
Global Intelligence Failure
Breakdown in Collection and Understanding
Digital
English
Language
Oral/Unpublished
NRO
NSA
Foreign
Languages*
Analog
FBIS
UN/STATE
CIA/DO
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
®
Global Processing Failure
Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
More Satisfying
50%
0%
Less Costly
Does Not Exist
OSINT
HUMINT
STATE
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
50%
®
World War III Players
NationStates
Companies
Bacteria
Citizens
Gangs
®
Conflict Facts for 2002
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with
permission © 2002 A. Jongman
®
Ethnic Fault Lines 2000
18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
®
Water & War
Hyper-Arid
1
3
4
Arid
5
Semi-Arid
6
Sub-Humid
Water
Pollution
2
Source: The State of the World
Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
®
Global Threats to Local Survival
Complex Emergencies
32 Countries
Water Scarcity &
Contaminated Water**
Refugees/Displaced
66 Countries
Ethnic Conflict 18
Genocides Today**
Food Security
33 Countries
Resource Wars, Energy
Waste & Pollution**
Modern Plagues*
59 Countries & Rising
Corruption Common
80 Countries
Child Soldiers
41 Countries
Censorship Very High
62 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide),
Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
®
Asymmetric War
• Whatever it takes-–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Fight dirty
Fight smart
Sabotage
Bug bombs
Electronic attack
Anthrax = panic
“Ju jitsu” warfare
• $500K = $100B loss
®
Public
Health
Vulnerabilities
on the
Home Front
DATA
Corruption
ECONOMIC BLAHS
No Fly No Spend No Hire
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS
Off-base power, down-links, antennas
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE
Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
13
®
STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR
Defense Against Weapons Systems
“Over There”
Offense Against
Fixed Ground
State
as Threat
and Target
OLD
NEW
Individual
as Threat
and Target
Offense Against
Distributed Groups
Defense of Infrastructure
Here at Home
PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR
®
Unbalanced Power
Smart Mobs
• Liberated Thinking
• Nomadic Connections
• Global Grid Power
• Swarmed Resources
• 24/7 Always On
• Geospatial Foundation
• Reputation is Power
Dumb Organizations
• Stove-Pipe Drones
• Hard Copy Files
• File Clerks Weak Link
• Locked-Up Resources
• 9-to-5 Compartments
• Legal Foundation
• Power is Reputation
®
Dealing With Smart Mobs
Does Not Work
• Nuclear Bombs
• Aircraft Carriers
• Tanks & Artillery
• Secret Satellites
• Not So Secret Spies
• Young Kid Analysts
• Political Bluffing
Could Possibly Work
• Deep Understanding
• Financial Incentives
• Focused Education
• Coalition Intelligence
• Coalition Special Forces
• Tracking Individuals
• Killing Individuals
®
C4I Big Picture
Four processing quadrants
IV - Organizational Intelligence
Out-Sourcing of
Information
Processing
Organizational
Memory System
EXTERNAL
CHUNKS
(Intellectual Property)
Patents, Etc.
Data
Visualization
III - External Information
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Government Monitoring
E-Commerce
TECHNICAL
Automated Analysis
Project/Group
Management
Heterogeneous
Search & Retrieval
Data
Conversion
Vendor Reporting
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Expert Hires
“Just Enough,
Just in Time”
Business
Intelligence
Institutionalized
Local
Knowledge
HUMAN
Training
Personal Brand
Cell #
Churning
(Rotationals)
Internal Reporting
PERSONALITY
(Insight/Intuition)
Trip
Reports
INTERNAL
I - Knowledge Management
II - Collaborative Work
®
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
Revision Tracking
and Realtime Group
Review
Desktop
Publishing and
Word Processing
A
Collaborative
Work
B
C
Interactive Search
and Retrieval of
Data
Clustering and
Linking of
Related Data
Conversion of
Paper Documents
to Digital Form
Notetaking and
Organizing Ideas
Graphic and MapBased Visualization
of Data
Statistical Analysis
to Reveal
Anomalies
Automated
Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature
Production of
Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Non-Text Data
Generic Analytic
Functionalities
Structured
Argument
Analysis
Modeling and
Simulations
Detection of
Changing Trends
Processing Images,
Video, Audio,
Signal Data
Processing
Desktop:
Detection of Alert
Situations
Automated Extraction
of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing
and Converting
Data Formats
Restricted Information
®
Processing Desktop
No Easy Solutions
Plan
Extend
SYSTRAN+?
Other
CATALYST
Elements?
**Powerize
Excaliber
Copernic
Collect
**C-4-U Scout
Topic
**CI Spider
GMS, Athens **E-Sense
Aerotext
**Corporate Intelligence Service
**Knowledge.Works
OSALAT Information Portal,
Comprendium
CrimeLink **WisdomBuilder
Identifier, SIFT,
Analyst Workbench
OnTopic, Labrador
**Plumtree Corporate Portal
**Strategy!
Intelligent Miner
**TextAnalyst
For Text
**Wincite
**Market Signal Analyzer
Analyst Notebook
Groove?
Share
Analyze
EDGE?
ClearForest Suite
Report
** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report
Content Extractor
MindMap?
®
New C4I Strategic Priorities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Open Source Collection
Multi-Media Processing
Analytic Toolkits
Analytic Tradecraft
Defensive Security
Leadership
Training
Culture
®
Incumbent’s External Handicaps
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Unbalanced Staff
Failed Intelligence
Maginot Line Military
No Counterintelligence
Education Broken
National IT Fragmented
Public Health Broken
Water - No Strategy
Energy - No Strategy
®
White House Staff Upgrade
P resident
Chief of S taff
Director General
National P olicy
Director General
Intelligence
Director General
S trategy
Director of
C lassified Intelligence
Chairm an, National
Intelligence Council
Director, G lobal
Inform ation Foundation
Director General
National Research
®
Security Shortfalls
• Intelligence Failed, Not
Changing the Cultures
• Heavy Metal Military,
Useless 90% of the Time
• No National
Counterintelligence
Agency or State & Local
Counterintelligence,
Private Sector Uncovered
®
Prosperity Shortfalls
• Education and IT
fragmented (content,
connectivity,
coordination, C4
security on Net)
• Public health
unfunded, children
falling by wayside
• No water or energy
strategy
®
South America Today
15% of the Conflict, <5% of the Budget?
GOOD
BAD
UGLY
Costa Rica
Haiti
Mexico
Chile
Colombia
Brazil
Uraguay
Venezuela
Cuba
El Salvador
Argentina
All Others
Culture
Violence
Poverty
®
Regional Agile Forces for Peace
Strategists
Advise Policy
Citizen Education
Domestic Threats
Water, Food, Health
Regional Network
Electronic Security
Set Standards, Stand Watch
OAS
CTF
Ground Truth
Force on Force
Train Local Services
Small Wars
Observe with Warrior’s Eyes
Control Territory
Constabulary
Stabilize Failed States
®
Regional Intelligence Center
Chief of Center
Country A
Deputy for Collection
Country B
OSINT
HUMINT
IMINT
SIGINT
Deputy for Processing
Country C
Digitization
Translation
Visualization
Analytic Support
Deputy for Counterintelligence
Country E
Deputy for Analysis
Country D
Warning
Estimative
Countries
Issues
Deputy for Covert Action
Country F
®
Necessary Changes in Emphasis
Striking a better balance
• Must strike a better balance
between
–
–
–
–
–
technical (-) and human assets (+)
secret (-) and open sources (+)
hard power (-) and soft power (+)
reaction (-) and prevention (+)
unilateral (-) and truly multilateral
combined operations (+)
®
Proposed Strategy: 1 + iii:
Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities
1
i
i
i
BIG WAR
SMALL WAR
OOTW
REAR AREA
Base Rights
Small Wars
Water
Intelligence
Protect Canal
Constabulary
Food
Border Patrol
Protect Oil
Ground Truth
Health
Port Security
Training
Environment
Electronic
Education
Public Health
50%
250B vs. 400B
15%
75B vs 20B
20%
100B vs. 20B
15%
75B vs. 38B
®
Contact Information
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Robert David Steele
OSS.NET
POB 369
Oakton, VA 22124
Email: [email protected]
Voice: (703) 242-1700
Fax: (703) 242-1711
Web: www.oss.net
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