EULAKS FLACSO, México 2008 Core elements of Foresight in Europe and Latin America Rafael Popper – [email protected] PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester About the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (PREST) Our Research is broadly grouped into five key themes that reflect both strengths of the Institute and areas of potential growth: • • • • • Technology strategy and innovation management, covering a wide range of topics relating to R&D, innovation strategy, internationalisation and tacit knowledge. There is particular interest in themes such as innovation in defence and security and in medical innovation Services and organisational innovation reflecting Manchester's outstanding track record of research in this field. This covers a range of topics including measurement, management and outsourcing Science, innovation policy and strategic intelligence draws on the extensive and long-standing reputation of Manchester in this field and developments in key areas such as foresight and evaluation of technology programmes Innovation and sustainability is a rapidly growing area of activity which covers environmental management, sustainable consumption and recycling. There is close collaboration with colleagues at the Tyndall Centre in Manchester Innovation, innovation systems and economic development covering familiar issues such as innovation and national and regional development as well as important emerging themes such as innovation as a sustainable route out of poverty in developing economies. Manchester has a particularly outstanding record in the understanding of the dynamics of innovation through evolutionary approaches. Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policy. The main focus of activity has been at national level as governments have sought to: • set priorities; • build networks between science and industry; • change the administrative culture & research systems and; • encompass structured debates with wider participation leading to the creation of common visions. http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/ Bookentry_Main.lasso? id=3977 What is foresight? • Broadly speaking… • Foresight is not about: – forecasting by experts Pro. • Foresight is more about: – trandisciplinarity – long term thinking F – engagement with decision-makers Pol. Par. – drawing upon wide networks of expertise – creating new action networks – extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decisionmaking – … R. Popper (2008) Evolution of Foresight Programmes/Exercises Year Since 1971 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi 2000 Country Exercise/Programme Method(s) Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi Brazil Prospectar Delphi Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others Others Japan 5th STA survey Delphi USA Critical Technologies Others Portugal ET2000 New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others Germany BMFT, T 21 Others Chile TFP Chile Delphi South Korea Foresight Exercise Others Germany FUTUR Others Czech Republic TF Exercise Others Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others Colombia Delphi + Others UK TFP Colombia 1st cycle 3rd UK Foresight Programme Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others 2001 Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others France Technology Delphi Delphi France 100 Key Technologies Others Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi Denmark National TF Denmark Others USA NIH Roadmap USA Others China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others Austria Delphi Austria Delphi Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 2002 2003 Others Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others Spain ANEP Delphi + Others Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others Netherlands Technology Radar Others South Korea SITRA Foresight Others Ukraine Korea 2030 Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others Finland Others France FuturRIS AGORA Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others 2004 France Delphi + Others South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others Russia Key Technologies Others New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others Others Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others Finland Finnsight Others Luxembourg FNR Foresight 21st Century Challenges GAO Others USA Finland SITRA Foresight Others Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others Sweden 1999 Year 1st Swedish Foresight Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc. 2005 2006 Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc. Others Others Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Why? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rationale 1: Directing or prioritising investment in STI (Setting general research directions by identifying previously unknown opportunities) • Informing funding and investment priorities, including direct prioritisation exercises; • Eliciting the research and innovation agenda within a previously defined field; • Reorienting the science and innovation system to match national needs, particularly in the case of transition economies; • Helping to benchmark the national science and innovation system in terms of areas of strength and weakness, and to identify competitive threats and collaborative opportunities; • Raising the profile of science and innovation in government as means of attracting investment. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rationale 2: Building new networks and linkages around a common vision • Building networks and strengthening communities around shared problems (especially where work on these problems has been compartmentalised and is lacking a common language); • Building trust between participants unused to working together; • Aiding collaboration across administrative and epistemic boundaries; • Highlighting interdisciplinary opportunities. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rationale 3: Extending the breadth of knowledge and visions in relation to the future • Increasing understanding and changing mindsets, especially about future opportunities and challenges; • Providing anticipatory intelligence to system actors as to the main directions, agents, and rapidity of change; • Building visions of the future that can help actors recognise more or less desirable paths of development and the choices that help determine these. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rationale 4: Bringing new actors into the strategic debate • Increasing the number and involvement of system actors in decision-making, both to access a wider pool of knowledge and to achieve more democratic legitimacy in the policy process; • Extending the range of types of actor participating in decision-making relating to science, technology and innovation issues. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rationale 5: Improving policy-making and strategy formation in areas where science and innovation play a significant role • Informing policy and public debates in these areas; • Improve policy implementation by enabling informed “buy-in” to decision-making processes (for example, so that participants in foresight activities are able to use the understanding acquired here to argue the case for change, and to bring it to bear in more specialised areas than the Programme as a whole has been able to). Manchester Institute of Innovation Research How? Foresight should be carefully planned Pre-Foresight Rationales Sponsor(s) Objectives Orientation Resources - Core team * - Time - Money - Infrastructure - Cultural - Political Approaches Time horizon Methodology Workplan - Activities - Tasks - Deliverables Scope - Context - Coverage Recruitment Project team * - skills Partners Sub-contractors Steering Group Experts - Thematic - Sectoral - Regional - National - International Champions - Thematic -… International Panels Methodologist Facilitators Rapporteurs The Foresight Diamond Generation Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) KNOWLEDGE (Popper, 2008) Action Advising - Strategies - Policy Options - Recommendations -… Transforming - Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making -… Renewal Learning - Process - Products Evaluation - Impacts - Efficiency - Appropriateness Dissemination - Shared Visions - Foresight Culture -… Step 5: evaluating Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures R. Popper (2008) Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues Meta principles of foresight 1. Contextualised Foresight needs to be rooted in the context within which it is to be implemented be it national, regional, local, corporate, organisational; 2. Credible The robustness of the evidence and the reputation of those presenting and validating it should be such that results are treated as credible; 3. Diversed Foresight must keep an ear open to unpopular views and not rush to a consensus; relevant (and seemingly less relevant) stakeholders should be engaged wherever possible, either in the exercise itself or in pre- and postforesight activities; 4. Systematic A foresight exercise should develop and follow a systematic approach which can easily be replicated. Methods should as far as possible allow comparisons / benchmarking and yield reproducible results; 5. Far-sighted There is little point to foresight which does not include a creative element that is explicitly future-oriented and moves beyond mere zeitgeist; Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight Meta principles of foresight 6. Transparent The objectives of an exercise should be clear to all; the design of the process, the sources of information and the means used to analyse data should all be available to those expected to participate and make use of the results; 7. Embedded Foresight’s impact endures where a culture for foresight is able to spread; 8. Engaged The commitment of those capable of acting upon the results should be secured in advance; 9. Efficient In its use of public (or private funds) foresight should be carried out with due economy and efficiency but be adequately resourced to be effective; 10. Adaptive Foresight should be adaptive, drawing upon lessons from previous and current activity to meet evolving demands. Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Who? http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/efmn_global_foresight_outlook_gfo_2007.pdf Mapping Sample EU27+ Trans-Europe North America Latin America Asia Africa Oceania 15 11 800 29 68 12 39 24 7 75 109 72 62 400 Over 1600 cases 570 557 0 Level 0 + Level 1 Level 2 + Level 3 R. Popper (2008) frequency + levels + groupings + scale … R. Popper (2008) Global foresight practices (1/3) EU27+ (515 cases) EU27+ (450 cases) Government Government Agencies / Dep. Research Research Community Firms Business sponsors NGOs IGO Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Other sponsors NGOs General Public Trades Unions 0% 50% 100% Trans-Europe (61 cases) audiences Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. 0% North America (108 cases) 50% 100% Trans-Europe (57 cases) North America (101 cases) Government Agencies / Dep. Research Community Government Government Government Agencies / Dep. Research Research Research Community Business Business NGOs NGOs IGO IGO Other sponsors Other sponsors NGOs NGOs General Public General Public Trades Unions Trades Unions 0% 50% 100% Latin America (24 cases) 0% 50% 100% Firms Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Intermediary organizations The main users of foresight are the 0% 50% 100% 0% Asia (47 cases) Latin America (24 cases) Asia (60 cases) Government Government Government Agencies / Dep. Government Agencies / Dep. Research Research Research Community Research Community Business Business The main sponsor of foresight is the Government NGOs NGOs IGO IGO Other sponsors Other sponsors General Public General Public 0% 50% 100% Africa (9 cases) 0% 50% 100% Oceania (13 cases) Gov. depts/agencies Research Community Firms Firms Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Intermediary organizations NGOs NGOs Trades Unions Trades Unions 0% 50% 100% 0% Africa (10 cases) Oceania (13 cases) Government Government Government Agencies / Dep. Government Agencies / Dep. Research Research Research Community Research Community Business Business NGOs NGOs IGO IGO Other sponsors Other sponsors NGOs NGOs General Public General Public Trades Unions Trades Unions 0% Source: Popper et al (2007) 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 50% Firms Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Intermediary organizations 0% Source: Popper et al (2007) 50% 100% 0% 100% 50% 100% 50% 100% Global foresight practices (2/3) EU27+ (517 cases) EU27+ (423 cases) 2051-2100 1% 2031-2050 2026-2030 2021-2025 National 10% 9% time horizon 7% 26% 2016-2020 2011-2015 23% 2010 23% 0% Trans-Europe (55 cases) North America (89 cases) 2051-2100 0% 2051-2100 0% 2021-2025 5% 2031-2050 11% 29% 2011-2015 10% 50% 0% 50% Latin America (21 cases) Asia (44 cases) 2051-2100 0% 2051-2100 2031-2050 0% 2031-2050 2% 10% 43% 2016-2020 38% 2011-2015 2010 2026-2030 9% 2021-2025 9% 36% 20% 2011-2015 ~90% 50% 0% 50% Africa (10 cases) Oceania (11 cases) 2051-2100 0% 2051-2100 0% 2031-2050 0% 2031-2050 2026-2030 10% 2021-2025 10% 60% ~80% 2011-2015 0% 2010 20% 0% Source: Popper et al (2007) 50% Supra national Europe Europe 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% The most common territorial scopes are Latin America (24 cases) Asia (65 cases) National Transborder Supra national Europe 0% National National Sub-national Sub-national Transborder Supra national Europe 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 50% 100% Oceania (15 cases) National National Sub-national Sub-national Transborder Transborder Supra national Supra national Europe Europe 9% 2021-2025 18% 2016-2020 18% 2011-2015 27% 2010 27% 0% Supra national Africa (11 cases) 2026-2030 0% 2016-2020 Transborder ~74% 18% 2010 0% Sub-national Transborder Sub-national 2016-2020 10% Sub-national 5% 10,15,20 years 2021-2025 National 0% The most common time horizons are 2026-2030 0% National ~74% 21% 2010 0% North America (108 cases) 43% 2011-2015 24% 2010 11% 2016-2020 ~79% 100% Trans-Europe (62 cases) 10% 2021-2025 25% 50% 4% 2026-2030 5% 2016-2020 Supra national Europe 50% 2026-2030 Transborder ~73% 0% 2031-2050 territorial scope Sub-national ~72% 50% 0% Source: Popper et al (2007) 50% 100% 0% Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Guides & Handbooks • The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008) • Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007) • Global Foresight Outlook (2007) http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/foresight/rif_guide.pdf http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf • The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook • Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages) EU Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC • TFP created in 1999 • Main actors – UNIDO – Governmental agencies and departments • Main objectives – Foresight culture – High-level political awareness – Industrial & technological development • Main activities – – – – Capacity building / Training courses Seminars / conferences Sectoral / industrial exercises Publications • Main countries – Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela Foresight in Mexico • Main actors – Javier Barros Sierra Foundation – College of Mexico – Autonomous University of Mexico – Technological Institute of Monterrey • Foresight outlook – In the 1980s Mexico led the first Latin initiative to promote the integration of foresight efforts in many countries, the so-called Technological Prospective for Latin America (TEPLA), which helped to translate selected European foresight experiences into Spanish. – In 1990s the country showed a decline in regional leadership – Since 2000 foresight work has begun to recover. – Current activities are mainly related to entrepreneurial foresight and efforts of public institutions focused on education, science and technology. – There is also a Mexican node of the Millennium Project, a chapter of the World Futures Society (WFS) and an online journal for prospective studies which has provided a space for disseminating experiences in Spanish – capacity-building and teaching programmes – Whilst Mexico has a long tradition in forecasting and futures research, it has yet to organise a fully-fledged national foresight programme. EU Foresight in Argentina • • • TFP created in 2000 Main actors – Secretary for Science & Technology - SECyT – UNIDO link Main activities 1. Learning from international experiences 2. diagnostic studies in 3 sectors: Biotechnology, Chemical and Textile industries 3. Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000 but frozen in 2001) 4. (most recent) Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI for 2015 (not called foresight!) • started in October 2003, completed in 2005 • coordinated by the National Observatory of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation (ONCTIP) • Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key areas • Over 4,000 people involved • Main goals: – To strengthen & enlarge the National System of STI – To improve quality, efficiency & pertinence of S&T activities – To increase S&T expenditure to 1% of the GDP in 2007 – To increase participation of the private sector to the 0.50% of the GDP EU Foresight in Chile • TFP Created in 2001 • Main actor – Ministry of Economy • Main objectives – discovery pathways toward a desired future – identification of strategies or action plan for its achievement. • Main methods – Brainstorming – Delphi • Main activities – – – – – – ‘e-ducation industry’: ICT applied to Education aquaculture industry wine production and exports biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture biotechnology applied to forest industry the Chilean software industry. Foresight in Cuba • Main actor – Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology (OCCyT) • Main objectives – Monitoring emerging technologies – developing foresight exercises in key strategic sectors – developing human capital with proactive attitudes as opposed to reactive • Main methods – Technology watch (trends & disruptions) – Brainstorming – Delphi • Main activities – Health – Biotechnology – Information technology EU Foresight in Peru • Main actors – UNIDO link since 2001 – CONCYTEC since 2002 – Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002 • Main objectives – Build foresight capabilities – Support exercises in strategic sectors (mainly pilots!) – Strengthen links with international foresight practitioners • Main methods – – – – Brainstorming SWOT Scenarios Cross-impact • Main activities – textile and clothing, biotechnology and agriculture, sea products and water, new materials, energy, housing and construction and tourism Foresight in Uruguay • Main actors – Presidency – UNIDO link (2000) – Various ministries • Main objectives – competitive industrialization of the country – integration of knowledge in the value chain • Main methods – – – – – Brainstorming Surveys Panels Delphi Scenarios & recommendations • Main activities – Energy – Transport and logistic – Biotechnology & agriculture EU Foresight in Venezuela • • • • Main actors – MCT, CENDES, IESA – UNIDO link – UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA, UNESR, 4-sight-group Main objectives – Building capabilities & foresight culture + execute exercises – Promote endogenous development, social inclusion & technological sovereignty Main methods – Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus groups, community dialog, Interviews Main activities – Yucca in Gondola; Shared Vision of the Future of the Gas Industry; Scenarios for the Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country; and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food Security by 2011 – National Plan for STI 2005-2030 • Main actors – FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES, universities • Main objectives: – To build an evaluation & promotion system for new stakeholders – To relate STI results to the needs of most excluded people – To promote a selective assimilation of technologies – To promote pertinent technological developments EU Foresight in Brazil • Main actors – – – – MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq UNIDO link (with MDIC) UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others CGEE • Main objective – To inform both government and industry about possible impacts of S&T trends • Main methods – – – – Brainstorming Prioritisation workshops and surveys Delphi Scenarios & cross-impact • Main activities – – – – – Brazil 2020 MST / PROSPECTAR MDIC / BTFP NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos CGEE activities… Brazil: PROSPECTAR Programme • • • • • Main actors – MST, National Council of S&T (CCT) + Anchor Institutions, CNPq, Fund for National Studies & Research (FINEP) & a team from the Centre of Advanced Studies and Systems of Recife (CESAR) Main objectives – To examine macro-issues related to STI with a focus on technological trends and inform key stakeholders about the future impacts of trends Main methods – Brainstorming & prioritisation – Delphi Main areas – Agriculture; Health; Energy; Telecommunications and IT; Materials; Hydro resources; Aeronautics; and Space Main remarks – The massive mobilisation of the scientific community (>10k people) – The programme raised awareness of the challenges Brazil was facing as a federation & raised the importance of Foresight in the scientific community Brazil: The BTFP Programme • Main actors – Secretary of Industrial Technology (STI) at the Ministry of Industry, Development and Commerce (MIDC) – UNIDO, EMBRAPA + Anchor institutions • Main objective – To contribute to development of the productive sector • Main methods – Foresight techniques applied to productive chain methodology • modelling; segmentation; performance indicators; critical factors; future events; Delphi survey + scenarios & cross-impacts (optional) • Main areas – Civil construction; Textiles & clothing; Plastics; and Wood & furniture • Main remarks – The methodological approach proved to be useful to understand the complexity of long-term planning on issues concerning a large variety of market segments and stakeholders (from raw material producers to final consumers) EU Brazil: NAE activities • Main actor – Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE) of the Presidency of the Republic • Main objective – to define national objectives based on a large-scale dialog between different stakeholders of society • Main methods – Trends & issues. 600 experts looking for Megatrends in 7 dimensions: Institutional; Economic; Socio-cultural; Territorial; Knowledge; Environment; and Global – From 50 strategic themes to strategic goals & objectives – Strategic Focus (cross-impact + Delphi + Scenarios) • Main projects – Improving the quality of basic and primary education • Main remarks – Results are still being processed but the response rate has been very satisfactory (around 38,000 participants) EU Brazil: CGEE activities • Main actors – CGEE + sponsors + other relevant stakeholders • Main objective – To support and execute foresight activities in Brazil – To raise awareness of about the future of key sectors • Main methods – Brainstorming surveys – Workshops – Delphi • Main projects – Energy, Biofuel, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Climate Change, and Water Resources, among others • Main remarks – Companion-system – Innovation portal – Delphi system EU Foresight in Colombia • Main actors – Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity (CNP), SENA – UNIVALLE, Externado – CAF, CAB, UNIDO (incubation) • Main objectives – Building capabilities & foresight culture – Fund and execute exercises • Main methods – Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi, cross-impact – Scenarios & recommendations • Main activities – – – – – – – – Electric Sector Food Packaging Sector Lacteous Sector Export potential of the health sector cluster in the Cauca Valley Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in Santander Making Cartagena a tourist destiny Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá plains Among others… EU Colombian Foresight Programme (1st Cycle) First Cycle of the Colombian Foresight Programme (2003 –04) P1 Colombian Milk Sector sectoral P2 Colombian Electricity Sector sectoral P3 Colombian Food Packaging Sector sectoral P4 Tourism Sector in Cartagena City secto-territorial P5 Health Cluster of the Cauca Region secto-territorial P6 Horticulture in the Bogota Plains secto-territorial P7 Vegetable Fibres in Santander Region secto-territorial P8 National Biotechnology Programme thematic EU Colombian Foresight Programme (2nd Cycle) Second Cycle of the Colombian Foresight Programme (2005–07) P9 Colciencias: Productive Transformation of Colombia into a Knowledge Economy P10 Colciencias / DNP: National STI Plan – Colombia Vision 2019 P11 Colciencias / MCIT: Micro-Small-and-Medium Enterprises Fund (Fomipyme) P12 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Tuberculosis P13 Colciencias / C. Excellence: New Materials (Hardening Surface) P14 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Essential Oils and Natural Products (Medicinal Plants) P15 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Genetic Resources and Biodiversity (Black Sigatoka in Plantain) P16 Colciencias / C. Excellence: Culture, Development and Peace P17 Colciencias / EAAB / EPM: Pilot on the Water Recycling Cluster P18 Colciencias / CIDET: Pilot on the Electricity Cluster P19 Colciencias Programmes: Biodiesel Production Technologies P20 Colciencias Programmes: Bioinputs (e.g. biofertilizers) P21 Colciencias Programmes: Electronics Applied to Agriculture P22 Colciencias Programmes: Nanotechnology Manufacturing Methods P23 Colciencias Programmes: Malaria Vaccines P24 Colciencias Programmes: Social Conflicts Resolution P25 Colciencias: National Capacities in Higher Education, Research and Innovation P26 Colciencias / MADR: Furniture and Wood Products P27 Colciencias / MADR: Cacao and Chocolate P28 Colciencias / MADR: Dairy Products P29 Colciencias / MADR: Tilapia Fish Environmental Scanning + Foresight (ESF) Environmental Scanning (ES) Environmental Scanning + Productive Chain Foresight (ESPCF) International Networks Projects P30 Productive Transformation and Higher Education in CAB countries (SECAB) P31 Scenarios for Research and Technology Development Cooperation with Europe (SCOPE) P32 Strategic Euro-Latin Foresight Research and University Learning Exchange (SELF-RULE) ESF Latin Foresight Panorama (Experiences and Cooperation) Country State of Evolution * Level + Focus # Objectives ~ Argentina A/I R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act-P Bolivia Im Se F/s A Brazil A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P Chile Le N, R, Se F/s, P A, Act, Act-P Colombia A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P Cuba A/I R, Se, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P Ecuador Le Se, Ac F/s A Panama Im Se F/s A Paraguay Im Se F/s A Peru Le N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne Mexico A/I N, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne Uruguay Le N,R, Se F/s A Venezuela A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P * + # ~ EU State of evolution: position of foresight/future activities in the country along a spectrum from imitation [Im], via learning [Le} to adaptation/innovation [A/I] Level: national [N], regional [R], sectoral [Se], organizational [O], academic [Ac] Focus: foresight [F/s], policy action [P] Objectives: anticipation [A], networking [Ne], action achieved [Act], action proposed [Act-P] Countries with 1 or more foresight projects with Europe Manchester Institute of Innovation Research With whom? Monitoring Foresight Cooperation Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation Knowledge Transfer Advice / Support Process Design Methodology support Process Management Training / Capacities Basic Intermediate Advanced Post-graduate Sustainable Partnership Joint Research LA funded EU funded EU-LA funded Shared Platforms Knowledge base Infrastructures Instruments Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation Advice and Support • For example, in Colombia: Public sector • Colciencias, SENA, DNP, Ministries, etc. Private sector • Chambers of Commerce • Public enterprises Academic sector • UNIVALLE, National University, etc. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation Training / Capacities • Capacities building activities On demand • National Foresight Programmes, Research Centres, Etc. • Mobility Programmes Successful one-off experience • SELF-RULE • Post-graduate programmes Under construction Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation Research • Joint research projects Methodological standards (CO-UK) • Mapping/monitoring foresight SELF-RULE and EFMN (EU-LA) • Evaluation of foresight experiences Colombian Foresight Evaluation (CO-UK) Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Core Elements of Foresight Cooperation Shared Platforms • Knowledge base Publications • Books • Chapters • Papers • Reports • Case studies / data bank Case studies repository ??? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research So, what? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Cooperation Opportunities (FP7 Calls…) • Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their implications – Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social platform on research for families and family policies – EUR 1.5M (support action) • Activity 8.4. Europe in the world – Area 8.4.1. Interactions and interdependences between world regions and their implications - SSH-2009-4.1.2 Geopolitics and the role of Europe in a changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating action) Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Cooperation Opportunities (FP7 Calls…) • Activity 8.7. Foresight activities – Area 8.7.5. Mutual learning and cooperation - SSH-2009-7.5.1 Consolidating the information system for foresight– EUR 720.000 Euros Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions) At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which is established in a MS or AC, and no two of which are established in the same MS or AC. Coordination and support actions (support actions) At least 1 legal entity Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rafael Popper [email protected] Gracias!