EULAKS
FLACSO, México 2008
Core elements of Foresight in
Europe and Latin America
Rafael Popper – [email protected]
PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester
About the Manchester Institute of
Innovation Research (PREST)
Our Research is broadly grouped into five key themes that reflect both
strengths of the Institute and areas of potential growth:
•
•
•
•
•
Technology strategy and innovation management, covering a wide
range of topics relating to R&D, innovation strategy, internationalisation
and tacit knowledge. There is particular interest in themes such as
innovation in defence and security and in medical innovation
Services and organisational innovation reflecting Manchester's
outstanding track record of research in this field. This covers a range of
topics including measurement, management and outsourcing
Science, innovation policy and strategic intelligence draws on the
extensive and long-standing reputation of Manchester in this field and
developments in key areas such as foresight and evaluation of
technology programmes
Innovation and sustainability is a rapidly growing area of activity
which covers environmental management, sustainable consumption
and recycling. There is close collaboration with colleagues at the
Tyndall Centre in Manchester
Innovation, innovation systems and economic development
covering familiar issues such as innovation and national and regional
development as well as important emerging themes such as innovation
as a sustainable route out of poverty in developing economies.
Manchester has a particularly outstanding record in the understanding
of the dynamics of innovation through evolutionary approaches.
Foresight has emerged as a key
instrument for the development
and implementation of research
and innovation policy.
The main focus of activity has
been at national level
as governments have sought to:
• set priorities;
• build networks between science
and industry;
• change the administrative
culture & research systems and;
• encompass structured debates
with wider participation leading
to the creation of common
visions.
http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/
Bookentry_Main.lasso?
id=3977
What is foresight?
• Broadly speaking…
• Foresight is not about:
– forecasting by experts
Pro.
• Foresight is more about:
– trandisciplinarity
– long term thinking
F
– engagement with decision-makers
Pol.
Par.
– drawing upon wide networks of expertise
– creating new action networks
– extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decisionmaking
– …
R. Popper (2008)
Evolution of Foresight Programmes/Exercises
Year
Since
1971
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Country
Exercise/Programme
Method(s)
Japan
1st to 4th STA surveys
Delphi
2000
Country
Exercise/Programme
Method(s)
Japan
7th STA Survey
Delphi
Brazil
Prospectar
Delphi
Brazil
TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC)
Delphi + Others
France
2nd 100 Key Technologies
Others
Others
Japan
5th STA survey
Delphi
USA
Critical Technologies
Others
Portugal
ET2000
New Zealand
Public Good Science Fund
Others
Venezuela
TFP Venezuela 1st cycle
Delphi + Others
Germany
BMFT, T 21
Others
Chile
TFP Chile
Delphi
South Korea
Foresight Exercise
Others
Germany
FUTUR
Others
Czech Republic
TF Exercise
Others
Turkey
Vision 2023
Delphi + Others
Colombia
Delphi + Others
UK
TFP Colombia 1st cycle
3rd UK Foresight Programme
Cyprus, Estonia, Malta
eForesee
Others
2001
Germany
Delphi ’93
Delphi
UK
1st TF Programme
Delphi + Others
France
Technology Delphi
Delphi
France
100 Key Technologies
Others
Japan–Germany
Mini-Delphi
Delphi
Denmark
National TF Denmark
Others
USA
NIH Roadmap USA
Others
China
TF Towards 2020
Delphi + Others
Greece
Technology Foresight Greece
Others
Norway
Research Council 2020 studies
Others
Sweden
2nd Swedish TF
Others
Austria
Delphi Austria
Delphi
Japan
6th STA survey
Delphi
2002
2003
Others
Australia
Matching S&T to futures needs
Others
Spain
ANEP
Delphi + Others
Hungary
TF Programme (TEP)
Delphi + Others
Japan
8th Japanese Programme
Delphi + Others
Netherlands
Technology Radar
Others
South Korea
SITRA Foresight
Others
Ukraine
Korea 2030
Ukranian TF Programme
Delphi + Others
Finland
Others
France
FuturRIS
AGORA
Venezuela
TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle
Others
2004
France
Delphi + Others
South Africa
Foresight Exercise
Delphi + Others
Germany
Delphi ’98
Delphi
Ireland
Technology Foresight Ireland
Others
Russia
Key Technologies
Others
New Zealand
Foresight Exercise
Others
Colombia
TFP Colombia 2nd cycle
Delphi + Others
UK
2nd UK Foresight Programme
Others
Brazil
Brazil 3 Moments
Delphi + Others
Others
Romania
Romanian S&T Foresight
Delphi + Others
Finland
Finnsight
Others
Luxembourg
FNR Foresight
21st Century Challenges GAO
Others
USA
Finland
SITRA Foresight
Others
Poland
Poland 2020 – TF Programme
Delphi + Others
Sweden
1999
Year
1st Swedish Foresight
Spain
OPTI Technology Foresight
Delphi
South Korea
Korean Technology Delphi
Delphi
Thailand
ICT Foresight
Delphi + Others
China
TF of Priority Industries
Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
2005
2006
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Others
Others
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Why?
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Rationale 1: Directing or prioritising investment
in STI (Setting general research directions by
identifying previously unknown opportunities)
• Informing funding and investment priorities, including
direct prioritisation exercises;
• Eliciting the research and innovation agenda within a
previously defined field;
• Reorienting the science and innovation system to match
national needs, particularly in the case of transition
economies;
• Helping to benchmark the national science and
innovation system in terms of areas of strength and
weakness, and to identify competitive threats and
collaborative opportunities;
• Raising the profile of science and innovation in
government as means of attracting investment.
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Rationale 2: Building new networks and
linkages around a common vision
• Building networks and strengthening
communities around shared problems
(especially where work on these problems has
been compartmentalised and is lacking a
common language);
• Building trust between participants unused to
working together;
• Aiding collaboration across administrative and
epistemic boundaries;
• Highlighting interdisciplinary opportunities.
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Rationale 3: Extending the breadth of
knowledge and visions in relation to the future
• Increasing understanding and changing
mindsets, especially about future opportunities
and challenges;
• Providing anticipatory intelligence to system
actors as to the main directions, agents, and
rapidity of change;
• Building visions of the future that can help
actors recognise more or less desirable paths
of development and the choices that help
determine these.
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Rationale 4: Bringing new actors into the
strategic debate
• Increasing the number and involvement of
system actors in decision-making, both to
access a wider pool of knowledge and to
achieve more democratic legitimacy in the
policy process;
• Extending the range of types of actor
participating in decision-making relating to
science, technology and innovation issues.
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Rationale 5: Improving policy-making and
strategy formation in areas where science and
innovation play a significant role
• Informing policy and public debates in these
areas;
• Improve policy implementation by enabling
informed “buy-in” to decision-making
processes (for example, so that participants in
foresight activities are able to use the
understanding acquired here to argue the case
for change, and to bring it to bear in more
specialised areas than the Programme as a
whole has been able to).
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
How?
Foresight should be carefully planned
Pre-Foresight
Rationales
Sponsor(s)
Objectives
Orientation
Resources
- Core team *
- Time
- Money
- Infrastructure
- Cultural
- Political
Approaches
Time horizon
Methodology
Workplan
- Activities
- Tasks
- Deliverables
Scope
- Context
- Coverage
Recruitment
Project team *
- skills
Partners
Sub-contractors
Steering Group
Experts
- Thematic
- Sectoral
- Regional
- National
- International
Champions
- Thematic
-…
International
Panels
Methodologist
Facilitators
Rapporteurs
The Foresight
Diamond
Generation
Existing knowledge
is amalgamated,
analysed and
synthesised
Tacit knowledge is
codified
New knowledge is
generated (e.g.
elucidation of
emerging issues,
creation of new
visions and images
of the future, etc.)
KNOWLEDGE
(Popper, 2008)
Action
Advising
- Strategies
- Policy Options
- Recommendations
-…
Transforming
- Networking
- Policy-making
- Decision-making
-…
Renewal
Learning
- Process
- Products
Evaluation
- Impacts
- Efficiency
- Appropriateness
Dissemination
- Shared Visions
- Foresight Culture
-…
Step 5: evaluating
Step 4: shaping the future through
strategic planning
Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the
exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures
R. Popper (2008)
Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
Meta principles of foresight
1. Contextualised
Foresight needs to be rooted in the context within which it is to be
implemented be it national, regional, local, corporate, organisational;
2. Credible
The robustness of the evidence and the reputation of those presenting and
validating it should be such that results are treated as credible;
3. Diversed
Foresight must keep an ear open to unpopular views and not rush to a
consensus; relevant (and seemingly less relevant) stakeholders should be
engaged wherever possible, either in the exercise itself or in pre- and postforesight activities;
4. Systematic
A foresight exercise should develop and follow a systematic approach which
can easily be replicated. Methods should as far as possible allow
comparisons / benchmarking and yield reproducible results;
5. Far-sighted
There is little point to foresight which does not include a creative element that
is explicitly future-oriented and moves beyond mere zeitgeist;
Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight
Meta principles of foresight
6.
Transparent
The objectives of an exercise should be clear to all; the design of the
process, the sources of information and the means used to analyse data
should all be available to those expected to participate and make use of the
results;
7.
Embedded
Foresight’s impact endures where a culture for foresight is able to spread;
8.
Engaged
The commitment of those capable of acting upon the results should be
secured in advance;
9.
Efficient
In its use of public (or private funds) foresight should be carried out with
due economy and efficiency but be adequately resourced to be effective;
10. Adaptive
Foresight should be adaptive, drawing upon lessons from previous and
current activity to meet evolving demands.
Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Who?
http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/efmn_global_foresight_outlook_gfo_2007.pdf
Mapping Sample
EU27+
Trans-Europe
North America
Latin America
Asia
Africa
Oceania
15
11
800
29
68
12
39
24
7
75
109
72
62
400
Over 1600 cases
570
557
0
Level 0 + Level 1
Level 2 + Level 3
R. Popper (2008)
frequency
+
levels
+
groupings
+
scale
…
R. Popper (2008)
Global foresight practices (1/3)
EU27+ (515 cases)
EU27+ (450 cases)
Government
Government Agencies / Dep.
Research
Research Community
Firms
Business
sponsors
NGOs
IGO
Other target audiences
Intermediary organizations
Other sponsors
NGOs
General Public
Trades Unions
0%
50%
100%
Trans-Europe (61 cases)
audiences
Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.
0%
North America (108 cases)
50%
100%
Trans-Europe (57 cases)
North America (101 cases)
Government Agencies / Dep.
Research Community
Government
Government
Government Agencies / Dep.
Research
Research
Research Community
Business
Business
NGOs
NGOs
IGO
IGO
Other sponsors
Other sponsors
NGOs
NGOs
General Public
General Public
Trades Unions
Trades Unions
0%
50%
100%
Latin America (24 cases)
0%
50%
100%
Firms
Firms
Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.
Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.
Other target audiences
Other target audiences
Intermediary organizations
Intermediary organizations
The main users of foresight are the
0%
50%
100%
0%
Asia (47 cases)
Latin America (24 cases)
Asia (60 cases)
Government
Government
Government Agencies / Dep.
Government Agencies / Dep.
Research
Research
Research Community
Research Community
Business
Business
The main sponsor of foresight is the
Government
NGOs
NGOs
IGO
IGO
Other sponsors
Other sponsors
General Public
General Public
0%
50%
100%
Africa (9 cases)
0%
50%
100%
Oceania (13 cases)
Gov. depts/agencies
Research Community
Firms
Firms
Firms
Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.
Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.
Other target audiences
Other target audiences
Intermediary organizations
Intermediary organizations
NGOs
NGOs
Trades Unions
Trades Unions
0%
50%
100%
0%
Africa (10 cases)
Oceania (13 cases)
Government
Government
Government Agencies / Dep.
Government Agencies / Dep.
Research
Research
Research Community
Research Community
Business
Business
NGOs
NGOs
IGO
IGO
Other sponsors
Other sponsors
NGOs
NGOs
General Public
General Public
Trades Unions
Trades Unions
0%
Source: Popper et al (2007)
50%
100%
0%
50%
100%
50%
Firms
Firms
Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.
Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed.
Other target audiences
Other target audiences
Intermediary organizations
Intermediary organizations
0%
Source: Popper et al (2007)
50%
100%
0%
100%
50%
100%
50%
100%
Global foresight practices (2/3)
EU27+ (517 cases)
EU27+ (423 cases)
2051-2100
1%
2031-2050
2026-2030
2021-2025
National
10%
9%
time horizon
7%
26%
2016-2020
2011-2015
23%
2010
23%
0%
Trans-Europe (55 cases)
North America (89 cases)
2051-2100 0%
2051-2100 0%
2021-2025
5%
2031-2050
11%
29%
2011-2015
10%
50%
0%
50%
Latin America (21 cases)
Asia (44 cases)
2051-2100 0%
2051-2100
2031-2050 0%
2031-2050
2%
10%
43%
2016-2020
38%
2011-2015
2010
2026-2030
9%
2021-2025
9%
36%
20%
2011-2015
~90%
50%
0%
50%
Africa (10 cases)
Oceania (11 cases)
2051-2100 0%
2051-2100 0%
2031-2050 0%
2031-2050
2026-2030
10%
2021-2025
10%
60%
~80%
2011-2015 0%
2010
20%
0%
Source: Popper et al (2007)
50%
Supra national
Europe
Europe
50%
100%
0%
50%
100%
The most common territorial scopes are
Latin America (24 cases)
Asia (65 cases)
National
Transborder
Supra national
Europe
0%
National
National
Sub-national
Sub-national
Transborder
Supra national
Europe
50%
100%
0%
50%
100%
50%
100%
Oceania (15 cases)
National
National
Sub-national
Sub-national
Transborder
Transborder
Supra national
Supra national
Europe
Europe
9%
2021-2025
18%
2016-2020
18%
2011-2015
27%
2010
27%
0%
Supra national
Africa (11 cases)
2026-2030 0%
2016-2020
Transborder
~74%
18%
2010
0%
Sub-national
Transborder
Sub-national
2016-2020
10%
Sub-national
5%
10,15,20 years
2021-2025
National
0%
The most common time horizons are
2026-2030 0%
National
~74%
21%
2010
0%
North America (108 cases)
43%
2011-2015
24%
2010
11%
2016-2020
~79%
100%
Trans-Europe (62 cases)
10%
2021-2025
25%
50%
4%
2026-2030
5%
2016-2020
Supra national
Europe
50%
2026-2030
Transborder
~73%
0%
2031-2050
territorial
scope
Sub-national
~72%
50%
0%
Source: Popper et al (2007)
50%
100%
0%
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Guides & Handbooks
•
The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008)
•
Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007)
•
Global Foresight Outlook (2007)
http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/foresight/rif_guide.pdf
http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf
•
The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook
•
Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages)
 EU
Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC
• TFP created in 1999
• Main actors
– UNIDO
– Governmental agencies and departments
• Main objectives
– Foresight culture
– High-level political awareness
– Industrial & technological development
• Main activities
–
–
–
–
Capacity building / Training courses
Seminars / conferences
Sectoral / industrial exercises
Publications
• Main countries
– Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay,
Venezuela
Foresight in Mexico
•
Main actors
– Javier Barros Sierra Foundation
– College of Mexico
– Autonomous University of Mexico
– Technological Institute of Monterrey
•
Foresight outlook
– In the 1980s Mexico led the first Latin initiative to promote the
integration of foresight efforts in many countries, the so-called
Technological Prospective for Latin America (TEPLA), which helped to
translate selected European foresight experiences into Spanish.
– In 1990s the country showed a decline in regional leadership
– Since 2000 foresight work has begun to recover.
– Current activities are mainly related to entrepreneurial foresight and
efforts of public institutions focused on education, science and
technology.
– There is also a Mexican node of the Millennium Project, a chapter of the
World Futures Society (WFS) and an online journal for prospective
studies which has provided a space for disseminating experiences in
Spanish
– capacity-building and teaching programmes
– Whilst Mexico has a long tradition in forecasting and futures research, it
has yet to organise a fully-fledged national foresight programme.
 EU
Foresight in Argentina
•
•
•
TFP created in 2000
Main actors
– Secretary for Science & Technology - SECyT
– UNIDO link
Main activities
1.
Learning from international experiences
2.
diagnostic studies in 3 sectors: Biotechnology, Chemical and Textile industries
3.
Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000 but frozen in 2001)
4.
(most recent) Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI for 2015 (not called foresight!)
•
started in October 2003, completed in 2005
•
coordinated by the National Observatory of Science, Technology and Productive
Innovation (ONCTIP)
•
Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key areas
•
Over 4,000 people involved
•
Main goals:
–
To strengthen & enlarge the National System of STI
–
To improve quality, efficiency & pertinence of S&T activities
–
To increase S&T expenditure to 1% of the GDP in 2007
–
To increase participation of the private sector to the 0.50% of the GDP
 EU
Foresight in Chile
• TFP Created in 2001
• Main actor
– Ministry of Economy
• Main objectives
– discovery pathways toward a desired future
– identification of strategies or action plan for its achievement.
• Main methods
– Brainstorming
– Delphi
• Main activities
–
–
–
–
–
–
‘e-ducation industry’: ICT applied to Education
aquaculture industry
wine production and exports
biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture
biotechnology applied to forest industry
the Chilean software industry.
Foresight in Cuba
• Main actor
– Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology (OCCyT)
• Main objectives
– Monitoring emerging technologies
– developing foresight exercises in key strategic sectors
– developing human capital with proactive attitudes as opposed
to reactive
• Main methods
– Technology watch (trends & disruptions)
– Brainstorming
– Delphi
• Main activities
– Health
– Biotechnology
– Information technology
 EU
Foresight in Peru
• Main actors
– UNIDO link since 2001
– CONCYTEC since 2002
– Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002
• Main objectives
– Build foresight capabilities
– Support exercises in strategic sectors (mainly pilots!)
– Strengthen links with international foresight practitioners
• Main methods
–
–
–
–
Brainstorming
SWOT
Scenarios
Cross-impact
• Main activities
– textile and clothing, biotechnology and agriculture, sea
products and water, new materials, energy, housing and
construction and tourism
Foresight in Uruguay
• Main actors
– Presidency
– UNIDO link (2000)
– Various ministries
• Main objectives
– competitive industrialization of the country
– integration of knowledge in the value chain
• Main methods
–
–
–
–
–
Brainstorming
Surveys
Panels
Delphi
Scenarios & recommendations
• Main activities
– Energy
– Transport and logistic
– Biotechnology & agriculture
 EU
Foresight in Venezuela
•
•
•
•
Main actors
– MCT, CENDES, IESA
– UNIDO link
– UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA, UNESR, 4-sight-group
Main objectives
– Building capabilities & foresight culture + execute exercises
– Promote endogenous development, social inclusion & technological
sovereignty
Main methods
– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus groups, community dialog,
Interviews
Main activities
– Yucca in Gondola; Shared Vision of the Future of the Gas Industry;
Scenarios for the Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country; and
Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food Security by 2011
– National Plan for STI 2005-2030
• Main actors
– FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES,
universities
• Main objectives:
– To build an evaluation & promotion system for new stakeholders
– To relate STI results to the needs of most excluded people
– To promote a selective assimilation of technologies
– To promote pertinent technological developments
 EU
Foresight in Brazil
• Main actors
–
–
–
–
MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq
UNIDO link (with MDIC)
UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others
CGEE
• Main objective
– To inform both government and industry about possible
impacts of S&T trends
• Main methods
–
–
–
–
Brainstorming
Prioritisation workshops and surveys
Delphi
Scenarios & cross-impact
• Main activities
–
–
–
–
–
Brazil 2020
MST / PROSPECTAR
MDIC / BTFP
NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos
CGEE activities…
Brazil: PROSPECTAR Programme
•
•
•
•
•
Main actors
– MST, National Council of S&T (CCT) + Anchor Institutions,
CNPq, Fund for National Studies & Research (FINEP) & a
team from the Centre of Advanced Studies and Systems of
Recife (CESAR)
Main objectives
– To examine macro-issues related to STI with a focus on
technological trends and inform key stakeholders about the
future impacts of trends
Main methods
– Brainstorming & prioritisation
– Delphi
Main areas
– Agriculture; Health; Energy; Telecommunications and IT;
Materials; Hydro resources; Aeronautics; and Space
Main remarks
– The massive mobilisation of the scientific community (>10k
people)
– The programme raised awareness of the challenges Brazil
was facing as a federation & raised the importance of
Foresight in the scientific community
Brazil: The BTFP Programme
• Main actors
– Secretary of Industrial Technology (STI) at the Ministry of
Industry, Development and Commerce (MIDC)
– UNIDO, EMBRAPA + Anchor institutions
• Main objective
– To contribute to development of the productive sector
• Main methods
– Foresight techniques applied to productive chain methodology
• modelling; segmentation; performance indicators; critical factors;
future events; Delphi survey + scenarios & cross-impacts
(optional)
• Main areas
– Civil construction; Textiles & clothing; Plastics; and Wood &
furniture
• Main remarks
– The methodological approach proved to be useful to
understand the complexity of long-term planning on issues
concerning a large variety of market segments and
stakeholders (from raw material producers to final consumers)
 EU
Brazil: NAE activities
• Main actor
– Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE) of the Presidency of the
Republic
• Main objective
– to define national objectives based on a large-scale dialog
between different stakeholders of society
• Main methods
– Trends & issues. 600 experts looking for Megatrends in 7
dimensions: Institutional; Economic; Socio-cultural; Territorial;
Knowledge; Environment; and Global
– From 50 strategic themes to strategic goals & objectives
– Strategic Focus (cross-impact + Delphi + Scenarios)
• Main projects
– Improving the quality of basic and primary education
• Main remarks
– Results are still being processed but the response rate has
been very satisfactory (around 38,000 participants)
 EU
Brazil: CGEE activities
• Main actors
– CGEE + sponsors + other relevant stakeholders
• Main objective
– To support and execute foresight activities in Brazil
– To raise awareness of about the future of key sectors
• Main methods
– Brainstorming surveys
– Workshops
– Delphi
• Main projects
– Energy, Biofuel, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Climate
Change, and Water Resources, among others
• Main remarks
– Companion-system
– Innovation portal
– Delphi system
 EU
Foresight in Colombia
•
Main actors
– Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity (CNP), SENA
– UNIVALLE, Externado
– CAF, CAB, UNIDO (incubation)
•
Main objectives
– Building capabilities & foresight culture
– Fund and execute exercises
•
Main methods
– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi, cross-impact
– Scenarios & recommendations
•
Main activities
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Electric Sector
Food Packaging Sector
Lacteous Sector
Export potential of the health sector cluster in the Cauca Valley
Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in Santander
Making Cartagena a tourist destiny
Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá plains
Among others…
 EU
Colombian Foresight Programme (1st Cycle)
First Cycle of the Colombian Foresight Programme (2003 –04)
P1
Colombian Milk Sector
sectoral
P2
Colombian Electricity Sector
sectoral
P3
Colombian Food Packaging Sector
sectoral
P4
Tourism Sector in Cartagena City
secto-territorial
P5
Health Cluster of the Cauca Region
secto-territorial
P6
Horticulture in the Bogota Plains
secto-territorial
P7
Vegetable Fibres in Santander Region
secto-territorial
P8
National Biotechnology Programme
thematic
 EU
Colombian Foresight Programme (2nd Cycle)
Second Cycle of the Colombian Foresight Programme (2005–07)
P9
Colciencias: Productive Transformation of Colombia into a Knowledge Economy
P10
Colciencias / DNP: National STI Plan – Colombia Vision 2019
P11
Colciencias / MCIT: Micro-Small-and-Medium Enterprises Fund (Fomipyme)
P12
Colciencias / C. Excellence: Tuberculosis
P13
Colciencias / C. Excellence: New Materials (Hardening Surface)
P14
Colciencias / C. Excellence: Essential Oils and Natural Products (Medicinal Plants)
P15
Colciencias / C. Excellence: Genetic Resources and Biodiversity (Black Sigatoka in Plantain)
P16
Colciencias / C. Excellence: Culture, Development and Peace
P17
Colciencias / EAAB / EPM: Pilot on the Water Recycling Cluster
P18
Colciencias / CIDET: Pilot on the Electricity Cluster
P19
Colciencias Programmes: Biodiesel Production Technologies
P20
Colciencias Programmes: Bioinputs (e.g. biofertilizers)
P21
Colciencias Programmes: Electronics Applied to Agriculture
P22
Colciencias Programmes: Nanotechnology Manufacturing Methods
P23
Colciencias Programmes: Malaria Vaccines
P24
Colciencias Programmes: Social Conflicts Resolution
P25
Colciencias: National Capacities in Higher Education, Research and Innovation
P26
Colciencias / MADR: Furniture and Wood Products
P27
Colciencias / MADR: Cacao and Chocolate
P28
Colciencias / MADR: Dairy Products
P29
Colciencias / MADR: Tilapia Fish
Environmental
Scanning
+
Foresight
(ESF)
Environmental
Scanning
(ES)
Environmental
Scanning +
Productive Chain
Foresight (ESPCF)
International Networks Projects
P30
Productive Transformation and Higher Education in CAB countries (SECAB)
P31
Scenarios for Research and Technology Development Cooperation with Europe (SCOPE)
P32
Strategic Euro-Latin Foresight Research and University Learning Exchange (SELF-RULE)
ESF
Latin Foresight Panorama
(Experiences and Cooperation)
Country
State of
Evolution *
Level +
Focus #
Objectives ~
Argentina
A/I
R, Se, O, Ac
F/s, P
A, Ne, Act-P
Bolivia
Im
Se
F/s
A
Brazil
A/I
N, R, Se, O, Ac
F/s, P
A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Chile
Le
N, R, Se
F/s, P
A, Act, Act-P
Colombia
A/I
N, R, Se, O, Ac
F/s, P
A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Cuba
A/I
R, Se, Ac
F/s, P
A, Ne, Act, Act-P
Ecuador
Le
Se, Ac
F/s
A
Panama
Im
Se
F/s
A
Paraguay
Im
Se
F/s
A
Peru
Le
N, R, Se, O, Ac
F/s, P
A, Ne
Mexico
A/I
N, Se, O, Ac
F/s, P
A, Ne
Uruguay
Le
N,R, Se
F/s
A
Venezuela
A/I
N, R, Se, O, Ac
F/s, P
A, Ne, Act, Act-P
*
+
#
~
 EU
State of evolution: position of foresight/future activities in the country along a
spectrum
from imitation [Im], via learning [Le} to adaptation/innovation [A/I]
Level: national [N], regional [R], sectoral [Se], organizational [O], academic [Ac]
Focus: foresight [F/s], policy action [P]
Objectives: anticipation [A], networking [Ne], action achieved [Act], action proposed [Act-P]
Countries with 1 or more foresight projects with Europe
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
With whom?
Monitoring Foresight Cooperation
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Core Elements
of Foresight Cooperation
Knowledge Transfer
Advice / Support
Process Design
Methodology support
Process Management
Training / Capacities
Basic
Intermediate
Advanced
Post-graduate
Sustainable Partnership
Joint Research
LA funded
EU funded
EU-LA funded
Shared Platforms
Knowledge base
Infrastructures
Instruments
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Core Elements
of Foresight Cooperation
Advice and Support
• For example, in Colombia:
 Public sector
• Colciencias, SENA, DNP, Ministries, etc.
 Private sector
• Chambers of Commerce
• Public enterprises
Academic sector
• UNIVALLE, National University, etc.
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Core Elements
of Foresight Cooperation
Training / Capacities
• Capacities building activities
 On demand
• National Foresight Programmes,
Research Centres, Etc.
• Mobility Programmes
 Successful one-off experience
• SELF-RULE
• Post-graduate programmes
 Under construction
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Core Elements
of Foresight Cooperation
Research
• Joint research projects
 Methodological standards
(CO-UK)
• Mapping/monitoring foresight
 SELF-RULE and EFMN
(EU-LA)
• Evaluation of foresight experiences
 Colombian Foresight Evaluation (CO-UK)
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Core Elements
of Foresight Cooperation
Shared Platforms
• Knowledge base
 Publications
• Books
• Chapters
• Papers
• Reports
• Case studies / data bank
 Case studies repository ???
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
So, what?
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Cooperation Opportunities
(FP7 Calls…)
• Activity 8.3. Major trends in society
and their implications
– Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social platform on
research for families and family policies
– EUR 1.5M (support action)
• Activity 8.4. Europe in the world
– Area 8.4.1. Interactions and
interdependences between world regions
and their implications - SSH-2009-4.1.2
Geopolitics and the role of Europe in a
changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating
action)
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Cooperation Opportunities
(FP7 Calls…)
• Activity 8.7. Foresight activities
– Area 8.7.5. Mutual learning and cooperation - SSH-2009-7.5.1 Consolidating the information system
for foresight– EUR 720.000 Euros
Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions)
At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which is
established in a MS or AC, and no two of which are
established in the same MS or AC.
Coordination and support actions (support actions)
At least 1 legal entity
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Rafael Popper
[email protected]
Gracias!
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