Fistera Roadshow
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Fistera WP2 Results
Methodology and Technology Trajectories
[email protected]
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
PUSH vs PULL
 It is a tangled world
 Technology cannot be seen outside of context
 i.e. if you want to assess its value!
 Incremental vs Disruptive
 Value is in understanding relationships
 Existing vs Out of the blue
Technology Evolution & context
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
 Related to Information Society
 Basic vs Aggregate Technology
 Description for the lay-man
 Technology
 understand why it is relevant
 Is there value in investing?
 Leading, trailing…no hope?
The FOUR LAYERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
 What is needed
 Why the capability is important
 Functionality
 Technology
 Showing tech. alternatives
 Evolution over time
The FOUR LAYERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
 Whose business is it?
 Service
 What is the potential market?
 How can it change over time?
 Functionality
 Is it culturally related?
 Is it “basic”?
 Technology
The FOUR LAYERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
COMPROMISING ON 4
 What are the social implication?
 Ambient
 What are the concerns?
 Is life quality improving?
 Service
 Functionality
 Technology
The FOUR LAYERS
 Who is benefiting?
 What is the market size?
 What can be the standard?
 Is it location based?
 How will it evolve?
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Home Page
 News
 Contact us
 Keep an eye on
 Disruptions
 Layers
 Papers
 References
Representation mechanisms
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Layer
 List of …
 Year related
 today
 2008
 2020
Representation mechanisms
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Relationships
 Within Layer
 Across Layer
 Type/Strenght
 impacts on
 uses
 enables
 enhanced by
…
 Geography
Representation mechanisms
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x”
Disruption
Time
Disruptions, signpost
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in processing
Obj.
? SmartGRID
PDA
Mainframes
PC
Tablet PC
Mini
Time
Disruptions, signpost
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in telecommunication
? - Mesh Ntw
Routers
Bridges
Add/Drop
Electromech
Switches
- SwRadio
- Autonomic
Systems
Electronic
Switches
Time
Disruptions, signpost
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in health care
?
Understanding
Specificity
Understanding
Symptoms
Understanding
Causes
Time
Disruptions, signpost
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in health care
Understanding
Specificity
Symbioses
Bio-Substitution
Monitoring
Drug syntheses
Fast Mapping
Human Genoma
Time
Disruptions, signpost
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Looking for “x” in health care
Symbioses
Bio-Substitution
Monitoring
Drug syntheses
Fast Mapping
Human Genoma
Wet Ware
Bio Printing
Sensors – U.Acc.
Hi.Sp. Processing
Molecular comp.
Time
Disruptions, signpost
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
 Technologies Identified
 Technology Trajectories
 Disruptions
 Building the future
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Identified
 What is a Technology?
 Technology Clusters
 Functionalities
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
What is a Technology?
Chip Evolution
(xHz; Hyperthread, Bus; W, …)
Design
(CAD, Clock ,…)
Manufacturing
(Clean Room,
Vibration,…)
Packaging
(Soldering, Casing,…)
Assembling
(Pins, Contact,…)
Lithographic Process
(Masking, nm, Wafer size,…)
Technologies identified
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
What is a Technology?
Quantum Communications
Detector
Photon
Modeling
Secure
Communications
Quantum
Applications
Maxwell Equations
(Statistical Modeling,…)
Technologies identified
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Behavior Technologies
 Affective Computing
 Agents
 Avatar
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Coding Technologies
 MPEG
 Public Key Cryptography
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications
Technologies
 3G
 Bluetooth
 Cable TV network
 Digital Cell. Base stations
 Galileo
 GPS
 Modems
 Optical Fibre
 Passive Distribution Ntw
 Power Line Transmission
 Radio Connectivity
 Rings
 Satellite
 Software Radio
 Trunk
 xDSL
 UWB
 WiFi
 WPAN
 Home Networking
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Devices Technologies
 3D Printers
 bio-printers
 Cell phones
 CRT
 Digital Video Recorder
 e-books
 Flat Screen LCD
 Information Appliances
 Notebooks
 PDA
 Personal Computers
 Printers
 Projection Displays
 Robot
 Scanner
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Power Technologies
 Batteries
 ZnMg batteries
 Fuel Cells
 Solar Cells
…
 Micro piezoelectric
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing Technologies
 Digital Signal Processing
 Distributed Processing
 Graphic Processing
 GRID Computing
 Microprocessor
 Mobile Processing
 Molecular Computing
 Quantum Computing
 Software
 Voice syntheses
- recognition
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage Technologies
 Distributed Storage
 DRAM
 Hard Disk
 Optical Disk
 Read Only Memory
 Holographic Memory
 Polymer Memory
 Silicon Based Memory
 Semantic Data Base
Technologies CLUSTERS
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Terminal points Technologies
 Active Tags
 Beacons
 Bio-Marker
 Bio-electronics
 Bio-metrics
 Digital Camera Sensors
 e-ink
 Gesture capturing
 Haptic Interfaces
 Holography
 Intelligent antenna
Technologies CLUSTERS
 MEMS
 Micro delivery chip
 Nanotechnologies
 OLED
 Optical Tags
 Passive Tags
 Sensors
 Wet-ware
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Functionalities
 3D Imaging
 Broadband
 Communications
 Data Capture
 Encryption
 Gaming Platforms
 Gaming Storage
 Human Interfacing
 Image Recognition
 Information Coding
 Information Displaying
 Information Retrieval
Functionalities
 Interactivity
 Language Understanding
 Micro Embedding
 Multimode
 Personal Identification
 Pin Pointing
 Printing Atoms
 Processing
 Profiling
 Security
 Shadowing
 Storage
 Virtual Presence
 Wearable
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
 Storage
 Processing
 Information Visual Display
 Printing
 Information Retrieval
 Communications
 Bandwidth
 Human Interfacing
 Data Capturing
 Pin Pointing
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Storage
 ROM
 Read/Write memories
 Storage Infrastructures
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage - ROM
 Silicon based
 Towards 13 nm, 100s GB
 Support processing, appliances, Entertainment
 Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan
 Tomorrow: USA on the rise (SOC)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage - ROM
electrods
 Silicon based
 Polymer memory
 TBs capacity
electrods
polymer
ThinFilm
 Entertainment, Education, References
 Today: Europe
 Tomorrow: ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage - ROM
 Silicon based
 Polymer memory
 Holographic memory
 TBs capacity
 Entertainment, Education, References
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, East Asia
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
 Silicon based
 GB – 100s of GB
 Entertainment, SIM
 Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan
 Tomorrow: Changes unlikely.
SoC & SIM an important area for Europe
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
 Silicon based
 Hard disks
 R/W heads
Magnetic Substrate
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: Changes unlikely.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
 Silicon based
 Hard disks
 Optical Storage
 TBs
 Massive Parallel search
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: Open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Read / Write
 Silicon based
 Hard disks
 Optical Storage
 Nano Storage
 Very High Density
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: Open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Infrastructure
 Local Storage
 from PB to EB
 40Tbps interconnection matrix by 2010
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Infrastructure
 Local Storage
 Distributed Storage
 Data Grid
 Mostly Scientific and Institutional Applications
 Today: USA, Europe, Japan
 Tomorrow: no changes expected
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Storage – Infrastructure
 Local Storage
 Distributed Storage
 Synchronised Storage
 Micro and Macro storage
 Personal area networks, Personal Virtual Ambient
 Business environment
 Network(s) environment
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Processing
 …for Calculus
 …for capturing information
 …for the display of information
 …for communications
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Calculus
 Microprocessors
 Following Moore’s law
>>> 28 GHz by next decade
 Embedded in “any” object in the next decade
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Calculus
 Microprocessors
 Supercomputers
 Massive parallel architectures
>>> 100 PFLOPS by 2010
>>> EFLOPS by the next decade
 Scientific and Institutional application
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Calculus
 Microprocessors
 Supercomputers
 GRID Processing
 Peaking by the end of this decade
 Scientific and Institutional application
 Gaming and communities
 Today: USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for capturing information
 Microprocessors
 low power consumption for sensors
 Embedded in “any” object in the next decade
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for capturing information
 Microprocessors
 Digital Signal Processing
 low power consumption for sensors
 Embedded in “any” object in the next decade
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for the display of information
 Graphic Microprocessors
 Billions of polygons per second by 2010.
 Demands level over 100 Bpps
 Embedded in microprocessors in the next decade
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for the display of information
 Graphic Microprocessors
 Television image processing
 Converging monitor and television
 Embedded in the screen in the next decade
 Today: Japan, Korea
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing - …for Communications
 Microprocessors
 Growth in speed and decreased consumption
 Direct optical interfacing
 Microprocessor on SIM
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing Power penetration
 As cost go down:
 1950 - 1970 Mainframe
 1970 - 1984 Mini
 1985 - 2000 PC
 1995 - …. Low perf: Embedded
 2003 April : 1 billion microprocess produced by Intel
 2008 - …. Medium perf: embedded
 2020 - …. All embedded
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Microprocessor evolution challenges
 Technology challenges:
 Quantum effect on electrons
 Synchronization clock
 Heat dispersion
 X ray lithography
 Interchip bus – pins
 Economic challenges
 Fabrication plant cost
 ROI (volume related)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Microprocessor evolution challenges
 Paradigm challenges:
 Molecular (and DNA) computing
 Quantum Computer
 Systemic challenges
 Communications
 Battery power
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Processing Power leadership
 Leading edge:
 1950 - 1990 Custom
 1990 - 2004 Intel, …AMD….
 2005 - 2010 Sony ? , Multi cluster Intel….?
 2010 - …. GRID? Power as Commodity?
 US leading till now
 Japan on the rise
 Europe out of the game. Is it a problem?
 if evolution is towards embedding
it is a BIG PROBLEM
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Information Visual Display
 Screen based information display
 Projection based information display
 Symbiotic information display
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
 CRT
 Fading away, the smaller the sooner
 Significant market share till 2006 /
usage share till 2010-2012 residential
usage share till 2008 in the office
 Today: Europe, USA, East Asia
 Tomorrow: nil
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
 CRT
 Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)
 Winning the market for the form factor
 Growing market share over CRT (except Plasma)
 Breakthrough in production (SED like) expected
 Entertainment (leading innovation), Office,…
 Today: East Asia, USA with production in Asia
 Tomorrow: East Asia
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
 CRT
 Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)
 Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)
 Growing market in the low tiers
 Niche markets: entertainment, gaming,
cellphones now, many small devices next
 Today: Japan,Korea, USA lagging behind
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
 CRT
 Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)
 Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)
 Nano-Emission Display (NED)
 Rising in the last part of this decade
 HiDef television in the next decade (Plasma Killer)
 Today: USA, East Asia (research)
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
 CRT
 Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)
 Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)
 Nano-Emission Display (NED)
 e-Ink
 Niche market in this decade, might expand
 Paper business related
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: Japan, USA in more complex devices
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Screen based
 CRT
 Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)
 Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)
 Nano-Emission Display (NED)
 e-Ink
 Smart Materials
 Niche market early next this decade, might expand
 Variety of potential applications
 Today: USA, Japan (research)
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
 LCD Projectors
 Mostly a business/office market
 Retro projection also in consumer market but it will
fade away under competition of Flat Screen
 Today: Japan, USA
 Tomorrow: Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
 LCD Projectors
 Micro Projectors
 Impact by the end of this decade.
 Suits mobile devices (battery constraints)
 Strong competition from symbiotic displays
 Today: USA (research)
 Tomorrow: Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
 LCD Projectors
 Micro Projectors
 Holographic Projectors
 Unless a breakthrough happens within 2008 it will
fade away under competition of other systems.
 Niche market (rather a curiosity market)
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Projection based
 LCD Projectors
 Micro Projectors
 Holographic Projectors
 Laser on “fog”
 Larger and cheaper by the end of this decade
 Niche market (rather a curiosity market) today
might expand in the next decade
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Symbiotic
 Laser based
 Projection on retina. Increased wear ability in the
last part of this decade. Normal in the next.
 Niche market (blind, some gamers, pilots,
surgeons,…)
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Symbiotic
 Laser based
 Retinal Implants
 Tied to evolution of bio electronics. Significant
results to be expected by the end of this
decade with major evolution in the next one.
 Niche market (certain kinds of blind people)
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Display – Symbiotic
 Laser based
 Retinal Implants
 Cortical Implants
 Tied to evolution of bio electronics and cognitive
science. Significant results by the end of
this decade; major evolution in the next one.
Competing with retinal implants in this
decade; no competition in the next
 Niche market (certain kinds of blind people)
 Today: USA (research)
 Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Printing
 Paper-like printing
 Object printing
 Biological printing
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
 ink-jet
 printing definition exceeds demand by 2008
…in general quality will exceed demand
 micro printing, water marking – end of this decade
 consumer market (and business)
 Today: USA, Japan; Europe lagging behind
 Tomorrow: Japan, USA; Europe?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
 ink-jet
 laser printing
 price decreasing, still higher than ink-jet
 minor interest to micro printing and water marking
because of tag use in the business env.
 mostly used in the business environment
 Today: Japan, USA
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
 ink-jet
 laser printing
 thermal printing
 low resolution, unlikely to increase significantly
 tampering robustness challenged by water marking
and tag by the end of the decade
 mostly used in the business environment
 Today: no significant research going on
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Paper-like
 ink-jet
 laser printing
 thermal printing
 electromagnetic printing (e-ink)
 will increase resolution, colors, switching time
but unlikely to reach ink-jet, laser quality
 wireless update of information by end of decade
 competing with some low end display technology
 Today: USA (products, research), Japan (research)
 Tomorrow: Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Objects
 laser printing
 lower cost by the end of this decade, not cheap
 professional market; unlikely to change
 niche applications, mock up, education
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Objects
 laser printing
 layered printing
 by the end of this decade: lower cost, faster printing,
broader range of “inks”, integration with robots
 professional market; consumer market possible by
the end of the next decade
 impacts on design, production, distribution
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Objects
 laser printing
 layered printing
 self assembling
 increase in “productivity” with real industrial
products early next decade
 seamless integration of self assembling into
robotic production processes
 NED screens, nano scale memories…
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Biological material
 2D printing
 increase in “productivity” with real industrial
products second half this decade
 better tissue structuring
 skin (almost available), muscle (next decade)…
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Europe?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Printing – Biological material
 2D printing
 3D printing
 creation of complex scaffolds (end of this decade)
 multiple tissue and structure printing (next decade)
 3D tissues (early next decade), organs (?)
 Today: USA (research)
 Tomorrow: USA, Europe?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Information Retrieval
 How much information?
 Variety of the information
 Semantics of the information
 Access to information
 Semantics of the retrieval of information
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – How much info?
TB
25
20
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
15
10
5
0
Trajectories
Year 2000
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – How much info?
TB
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – How much info?
TB
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – How much info?
PB
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Year 2000
Music
Books
Mags
Movies
DVD
Newsp.
WWW
Office
Radio
Television
e-Mail
Home Video
Photos
Telephone
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
 Textual Information
 Evolution towards the association of context
 Retrieval evolves to take context into account
by the next decade context will be the main
“search” criteria.
 Textual search likely to fade away by the end of
the next decade
 Today: USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
 Textual Information
 Image Information
 More sophisticated tagging (automatic) by the end
of this decade
 From retrieval through tagging to understanding of
the image and its components (next decade)
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
 Textual Information
 Image Information
 Video Information
 Similar evolution path of image retrieval
 Retrieval based on the tagging of reaction of
viewers
 Plot understanding unlikely before 2020
 Today: USA (security related research)
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan (animation tech. Research)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
 Textual Information
 Image Information
 Video Information
 Sound Information
 Mostly based on tagging, retrieval of specific
sounds. Unlikely to change.
 Very little research being done.
 Today: Japan, USA
 Tomorrow: Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Variety
 Textual Information
 Image Information
 Video Information
 Sound Information
 Voice Information
 Tied to voice recognition tech. for textual based
retrieval. 99% rec. By 2010.
 Voice based retrieval by the end of next decade.
Tied to cognitive science, context underst.
 Today: Europe, Japan, USA
 Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Info Semantics
 Tagged Information
 Evolution towards automatic tagging.
 International standardization groups for tagging
 Today: Europe, Japan, USA (vertical industries)
 Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Info Semantics
 Tagged Information
 Interpreted Information
 Piggy back on tags (where available) + info
understanding.
 Semantics associated to the information and in
relationships (created when info is stored).
 Today: Europe, USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Europe (may lag behind)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Info Semantics
 Tagged Information
 Interpreted Information
 Semantic Web
 Focus on relationships (previously created and
determined in the retrieval process)
 International forum.
 Evolution based on basic tech. + more context
 Today: Europe, East Asia, USA (slightly ahead)
 Tomorrow: USA, East Asia, Europe ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
 Keypad
 Fit for textual information or tagged ones
 Widely used, it will remain so.
 Wider use of handwritten queries as handwriting
recognition improves.
 Today: no significant research going on
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
 Keypad
 Click
 Evolution towards “personalized clicks”
 Widely used, it will remain so.
 Progress in image recognition will further stimulate
click based retrieval
 Gesture capture (eyes, hands...) as click
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
 Keypad
 Click
 Voice
 Increasingly used but it will not kill other access
 Voice interpretation adds semantics to the query in
the second part of the next decade.
 Persons with disabilities, security and safety appl.
 Social applications requires institutional funding
 Today: Europe, USA
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Access
 Keypad
 Click
 Voice
 Deferred
 Asynchronous and mediated retrieval. Will see a
significant growth in the next decade.
 Agent based technologies and Profiling.
 Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz)
 Today: USA (mostly research)
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
 Context dependent information
 Increase in the query “span” and in answer
“filtering” provides great value beyond 2008
 “Sensing” by 2008, “understanding” beyond 2015
 Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz)
 Today: USA (mostly research)
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
 Context dependent information
 Agent based retrieval
 Agent performing trivial tasks but also increasingly
using understanding on the query
 International forum on agent interfacing
 Applications in vertical segments (e-citizen, …)
 Today: USA (mostly research)
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
 Context dependent information
 Agent based retrieval
 Personalization of information
 Significant evolution by 2008. Strong impact in the
next decade.
 Evolution continues in the next decade on the
level of intelligence in the personalization.
 Person + context based in the next decade
- SIM - WPAN
 Today: USA, Europe (tailing close)
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics
 Context dependent information
 Agent based retrieval
 Personalization of information
 Negotiation of information
 Slow evolution conditioned by level of trust
 Widespread application in the next decade with
significant impact from 2015 on.
 Likely to be used in the interim as “assistant”
 Evolution Today: USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: USA, Europe
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Communications
 Paradigms
 Evolution of connectivity
 Transmission related technologies / infrastructures
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
 Broadcast
 Television
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
 Broadcast
 Time Sharing
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
 Broadcast
 Time Sharing
 Client Server
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
 Broadcast
 Time Sharing
 Client Server
 Peer to Peer
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
 Broadcast
 Time Sharing
 Client Server
 Peer to Peer
 Cluster to cluster
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Paradigms
 Broadcast
 Time Sharing
 Client Server
 Peer to Peer
 Cluster to cluster
 Sticker
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
Demand
(Gigabits)
1,000
800
600
400
P rivate/IP LC
IDDD
Internet/IP
200
0
1998
1999
2000
M DNS/Frame/X.25
A TM & IP Switching
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year end
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
 Wire is better than wireless (technically)
10,000
9,000
8,000
Gigabits
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
19 8
8
19 8
9
19 9 19 9 1 19 9
0
2
19 9
3
19 9
4
19 9
5
19 9
6
19 9
7
19 9
8
19 9
9
200
0
200
1
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
 Wire is better than wireless (technically)
 Wireless is better than wired (humans)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications - Connectivity Evolution
 Wire is better than wireless (technically)
 Wireless is better than wired (humans)
 Flatter networks
Till 1980ies
Electromechanical Exchanges
 1980- 2000 Electronic exchanges
 2000 - …
Router, Bridges, Add Drop…
 2015 - …
Full optical networks?
 2020 - …
Mesh Networks, Terminals Networks?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures
 wire-based transmission
 Top Speed: 10s TB by 2010,
100s by 2020
 Evolution: optoelectronics, optical switching,
autonomic systems
 Metropolitan networks: ring > star >> mesh
 Today: USA (leading), Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures
 wire-based transmission
 wireless based transmission
 Architectural evolution towards a mix of technologies
 Software Radio, UWB Picocells by 2008
 Interference managed by terminals (?) 2020
 Today: Europe, USA, Japan (all leading…)
 Tomorrow: USA (leading?), Europe, Japan, China ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures
 wire-based transmission
 wireless based transmission
 Switching technologies
 l switching, routers/bridges
 mSwitching in terminals and network edges
 Optical switching (?) in the next decade
 Today: USA, Japan (research), Europe (lagging)
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Bandwidth
 Transport technologies
 Edge technologies
 Terminal technologies
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Copper based
 Leveling out by end of this decade, 100s Mbps
 Losing out to fiber in the next decade
 Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services
 Today: Korea, Japan, Europe, USA
 Tomorrow: Europe, USA (K&J will swap to fiber)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Copper based
 Fiber based
 Niche penetration in this decade, slowly
substituting copper in the next one
 Different strategies in different environments
 Architecture evolution (PON, Star, Mesh…)
 Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services
 Today: Japan, USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Copper based
 Fiber based
 Coaxial cable based
 Depends on status of existing cable TV infrastr.
 Strong competition from xDSL in most markets
 Entertainment, Internetting (problems for up-link)
 Today: USA, Japan & Europe (in specific areas)
 Tomorrow: declining
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Wireless local loop
 WiFi cluster
 spreading out through this this decade, 100s Mbps
 Competition with UWB in the next decade in home
environment
 Internetting, home connectivity
 Today: USA, others are followers
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change, but for emergence
of Korea
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Wireless local loop
 WiFi cluster
 Pulse based cluster
 from 2008 on, 480 Mbps
 Winning competition with WiFi and Bluetooth in
the next decade in home environment
 home connectivity, pico-cells, sensors networks
 Today: USA, others are followers
 Tomorrow: USA, Europe ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Wireless local loop
 WiFi cluster
 Pulse based cluster
 LMDS like
 focused application in this decades, mostly Biz
 possible extension in the next decade
 Connectivity in the last mile(s)
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Wireless local loop
 WiFi cluster
 Pulse based cluster
 LMDS like
 Cellular
 2G and 3G likely to coexist for next 10 years
 Software radio as disruption, 4G?
 Broadband (limited) on the move
 Today: Japan, Europe, USA
 Tomorrow: open field
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Transport Technologies
 Wire-based local loop
 Wireless local loop
 WiFi cluster
 Pulse based cluster
 LMDS like
 Cellular
 Satellite
 Marginal, focused contribution
 Broadband to isolated spots
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, China ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Edge technologies
 GRID
 Increasing speed overcoming protocol limits
 High speed for niche applications, extending the
offer to some business in the next decade
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan ?, Europe ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Edge Technologies
 GRID
 Mirroring
 Increasing importance affecting ntwk.architectures
 Research in the network architecture, mirroring,
shadowing, data relations
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Europe ? (risk lagging behind)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies
 Cashing
 Common practice by the end of this decade,
significant impact in the next one
 Seamless cashing through discontinuous networks
 Research on SW, profiling, artificial intelligence
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies
 Cashing
 Local storage
 Common by this decade end
 Impact on network architectures (transaction traffic
and burst traffic) and Biz models
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Human Interfacing
 Human to human interfacing
 Human to machine interfacing
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Human
 Real time translation
 Getting out of prototyping stage by decade end
 Significant impact in the next decade
 No substitution on sight of the human translator
 Research in voice recognition, profiling, language
understanding, AI, cognitive science, agents
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a
stronger lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Human
 Real time translation
 Expert to layperson
 Prototypes early next decade, applications in the
second half.
 Research in expert systems, machine
understanding, cognitive science
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Human
 Real time translation
 Expert to layperson
 Avatar to people communication
 Autonomous avatar by the end of this decade
 Delegation may take place later in the next one
 Research on rendering, affective computing, plus
advances in basic computational technologies
 Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech)
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Machine
 Human-like interface
 Significant progress but will not dominate the
communication paradigm
 Dominate only in focused areas (next decade)
 Research on rendering, affective computing
 Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech)
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Machine
 Human-like interface
 Interaction Design
 Significant contribution by the last part of this
decade, from niches to all products/services
 Research in cognitive science, pragmatics, human
observation, engineering
 Need to create and Interaction Design culture
 Today: USA, Europe, Japan
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Human Interfacing – Human to Machine
 Human-like interface
 Interaction Design
 Ambient mediated interfacing
 First applications by the end of this decade
 Profound impact in the next one
 By 2020 AMI will be the norm
 Research as in other areas of HI plus on intelligent
ambient, cooperating objects.
 Today: USA, East Asia (research)
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Data Capturing
 From Atoms to Bits
 Identifying objects
 Capture meaning
 Sensing the environment
 Networking the environment
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
 Capturing shapes
 2D surfaces
 A commodity today for A3 size and smaller
 Much larger scanning through laser technologies
targeted to Biz, unlikely to decrease in price
 Satellite photography will become a commodity
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
 Capturing shapes
 2D surfaces
 3D objects
 Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms
 Laser, aerophotogrammes, spaced satellite photos
 Targeted to Biz, will remain costly
 Today: USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
 Capturing shapes
 2D surfaces
 3D objects
 movements
 Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms
 Multiple video cameras and contour recognition
 Haptic interfaces
 Targeted to Biz, will remain costly, cheap
applications in gaming, education and training
 Today: USA (mostly), Europe, Japan (gaming)
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
 Capturing shapes
 Capturing writing
 From “Graffiti” to normal writing by end of decade
 “Scribbling” remains a problem well into next one
 Research profiling, context understanding
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
 Capturing shapes
 Capturing writing
 Capturing sounds
 Improved capacity to discriminate sound and
isolate sources.
 Melodies and voice identification by end of decade
 Security concerns drive research for timbre
recognition, identification (next decade in a
non controlled environment)
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: USA (stronger lead), Europe, Japan.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits
 Capturing shapes
 Capturing writing
 Capturing sounds
 Capturing sensations
 Touch, acceleration, smell, taste…
 Better accuracy, less cumbersome, cheaper
 Evolution of haptic, bio-electronics, laser sensing,…
 Biz applications and mass market
 Today: USA (leading), Japan
 Tomorrow: USA (Biz), Japan (consumer market)
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Identifying Objects
 Reading tags
 Increase reach, parallel reading, spotting
 Significant impact in the next decade
 Reader embedded in many devices (cellphones)
 Research in microelectronics, radio propagation,
software (profiling)
 Today: USA; Japan & Europe (lagging behind)
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Identifying Objects
 Reading tags
 Bio-identification
 Evolution towards more practical ways of capture
data.
 A common way of identification in the next decade
 Research under security concern pressure
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: USA may take a strong lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Identifying Objects
 Reading tags
 Bio-identification
 Spotting
 Evolution towards more accuracy and spotting in
complex environments
 Available to institution early next decade. To
service provider for consumers by its end.
 Groundbreaking research in LifeLog
 Today: USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: USA will take a strong lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Capture “meaning”
 Capturing emotions
 Infancy stage today will evolve significantly in the
next decade: evolution towards easier
capture, cheap sensors, quick response time
 Capturing of images (moving/still), aural,
context and motion data. Bio-parameters
 Research in AI, cognitive science, profiling
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: USA leading in applications, Japan
leading in capturing devices
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Capture “meaning”
 Capturing emotions
 Tracking “attention”
 first applications in the second part of this decade
 Evolution towards less cumbersome settings,
higher accuracy, context evaluation
 Application in safety, education, training…
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA benefiting from strong funding to
security related research
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Capture “meaning”
 Capturing emotions
 Tracking “attention”
 Voice understanding
 Viable in the first part of the next decade
 Evolution towards better understanding of context
and comprehensive understanding in a
“normal” environment
 Research in complex systems relations
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead thanks
to security related research funded
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment
 Scalar parameters
 More and more variety of sensors’ capabilities
 One chip for sensing, processing, communicating
 In the next decade flexibility with SW Radio
 Research in basic electronics, bio, mesh networks
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a
stronger lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment
 Scalar parameters
 Vector parameters
 Evolution parallel the scalar sensors.
 Vector indication derived from outside in this
decade, from within in the next decade
 Research electronics, mesh networks, …
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take the
lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment
 Scalar parameters
 Vector parameters
 Bio-sensing
 Evolution toward better accuracy, easier integration
 In the next decade sensors will interact with the
environment
 Research in bio-electronics, biology, engineering
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Networking the Environment
 Sensors’ networks
 Ongoing research. First autonomous networks by
the end of this decade.
 Evolution towards increased local processing and
adaptability. Smart dust beyond 2015.
 Leverage on sensors evolution.
 Research in autonomous systems
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA likely to continue to lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Data Capturing – Networking the Environment
 Sensors’ networks
 Track-and-follow networks
 Clustering a variety of technologies.
 Evolution towards better accuracy in wider
environments.
 Research in image recognition, coordination of
communication environments…
 Applications in security, monitoring, safety….
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Technologies Trajectories
Pin Pointing
 Location awareness
 Tracking
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Location Awareness
 Satellite based
 GPS, Glonass, Galileo
 Evolution in the receiver part: cheaper, embedded
 Cost no more an issue beyond 2015
 Applications in security, monitoring, safety….
 Today: USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: Europe may levarage on Galileo to
take a strong lead. US “based” chips
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Location Awareness
 Satellite based
 Cell based
 Cellular, WiFi, UWB, Beacons:
mostly indoor
 Cost free on the receiving end
Applications in education, tourism…
 Today: Europe, Japan
 Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA?
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Location Awareness
 Satellite based
 Cell based
 Tag based
 Location provided by tag or by tag related info
 Evolution in the tag readers
 Applications in production and delivery processes
 Today: USA, Japan, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Tracking
 Tag based
 Bar code replacement by end of this decade
 Evolution towards cheaper prices (1 c by the end
of this decade)
Applications in production processes, delivery,
controlled environment (e.g. health care)
 Today: USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: unlikely to change
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Tracking
 Tag based
 Satellite based
 Combine with communication return link
 Evolution towards decreasing cost of the
receiver/transponder, miniaturization.
Applications in security, monitoring, safety,
distribution chain….
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Europe may take leadership.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Pin Pointing – Tracking
 Tag based
 Satellite based
 Image based
 Spotting, (identification), tracking
 Evolution towards interpretation of “behavior”,
feasibility in complex environment
Research in image recognition, Artificial
intelligence, coordination of communication
environments…
 Today: USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.
Trajectories
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
 Transformation of Products into Services
 The Disappearance of the Computer
 Ubiquitous seamless connectivity
 Changing Traffic Patterns
 Infinite Bandwidth
 Disposable Products
 Autonomous Systems
 From Content to Packaging
 The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Embedding of communications capabilities
 Rising of profiling
 Cheaper production processes
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Products becoming commodities
 Loss of differentiation capabilities
 Increased copycat possibilities
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Transformation into service companies
 Shortening of products’ life cycle
 Strong increase in call centers
 Automated customised assistance
 Increased globalisation of the market
 Restructuring of the value chain
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Health care
 Entertainment
 Transportation
 Consumer appliances
 Education
…
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Likeliness to happen
 Disruption is already occurring
 Connectivity bundled as a service feature
 Appliance bundled in connectivity
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
The Disappearance of the Computer
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
The Disappearance of the Computer
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Diminished cost
 System on Chip
 Wearable Computers
 Increase in connectivity and ubiquitous access
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
The Disappearance of the Computer
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Need to increase volumes
 Need to increase flexibility
 Need to provide easier use
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
The Disappearance of the Computer
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Skill to exploit processing capability in any object
 New level of competences required
 New actors in the value chain
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
The Disappearance of the Computer
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market sectors affected
 Appliances
 Household environment
 Transportation
 Security
 Environment
 Information Retrieval
…
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
The Disappearance of the Computer
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market sectors affected
 Likeliness to happen
 Thresholds of processing power >> starting 2005
 Dramatic cost reduction >> early next decade
 Final demise of the PC >> beyond 2015
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Increased connection capabilities for any object
 Variety of Infrastructures
 WPAN
 Software Radio
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Mature market moving towards flat rate
 Demand for transparency
 Bundling communication into services & goods
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Shift from connectivity to service
 Bundling of services
 Seamless Service Hopping
 Crucial importance of profiling
 Embedded connectivity demand
 Increasing opportunities to offer new services
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Communications providers
 Goods producers
 Resellers areas, malls, shops…
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Ubiquitous Seamless Connectivity
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Likeliness to happen
 A “sure thing”: not if but when and how
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Changing Traffic Patterns
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Huge amount of local storage
 Sensors, tags
 Digital camcorders, cameras…
 Agent communications
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Changing Traffic Patterns
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Growth of peer to peer
 Flat rate and always on
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Changing Traffic Patterns
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry impact
 Push towards the transition from ADSL to VDSL
 Transition towards an optical access
 Always on wireless connectivity
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Changing Traffic Patterns
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Telecom Operators
 Advertisement
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Changing Traffic Patterns
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Likeliness to happen
 Asynchronous traffic patterns
 Bottlenecks in the metropolitan network
 Wireless traffic
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
 Measuring vs perceiving Bandwidth
 Fixed lines – Backbones – local loop
 Wireless – untethered connectivity
 Local storage
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Advances in theoretical studies on propagation
 Terminals as network nodes
 Cognitive Radio
 Software Radio
 Mesh Networks
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Need for ubiquitous connectivity
 Emergence of a variety of local operators
 Great variety in traffic demand
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Incumbent Mobile Operators
 New Mobile Operators
 Service and Product industry
 Regulatory Framework
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Wearable Devices
 Any Mobile Object
 Healthcare
 Education
 Environment monitoring
 ….
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Disruptions
Infinite Bandwidth (on wireless)
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Likeliness to happen
 Increased spectrum availability
 Unlimited bandwidth capacity
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
 De-localized Innovation, localized application
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
 De-localized Innovation, localized application
 Making an impact across market segments
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
 De-localized Innovation, localized application
 Making an impact across market segments
 ROI
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
 De-localized Innovation, localized application
 Making an impact across market segments
 ROI
 Fore-sighting
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
Five Challenges
 De-localized Innovation, localized application
 Making an impact across market segments
 ROI
 Fore-sighting
 The Grand Plan and Micro Actors
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
To know more….
http://fistera.jrc.es
http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com
WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories
Montpellier, 19 November 2003
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