REPORT
National Senior Certificate
Examination Results
Towards a Sector Plan for Basic
Education
Presentation by Nkosinathi Sishi –Chief Director: National Examinations and Assessment, to the National Council of
Provinces (NCOP), Select Committee on Education and Recreation, Parliament, Republic of South Africa
Towards a Sector Plan for Basic Education
GRADE
Age of learners
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
5
1.8%
6
32.3%
1.3%
7
50.7%
27.9%
1.9%
0.1%
8
10.7%
46.1%
22.1%
2.1%
0.3%
9
2.6%
16.1%
41.7%
21.5%
2.2%
10
1.1%
5.2%
21.2%
39.1%
16.5%
1.5%
11
0.2%
1.9%
7.2%
19.0%
36.5%
13.0%
1.0%
12
0.3%
0.9%
3.4%
10.3%
25.1%
42.1%
10.2%
0.9%
13
0.1%
0.4%
1.3%
4.6%
11.7%
23.6%
39.5%
14.0%
1.8%
0.3%
14
0.3%
0.1%
0.6%
2.6%
4.0%
9.8%
23.5%
35.8%
14.8%
1.8%
0.1%
0.5%
0.8%
3.1%
6.1%
14.5%
24.4%
32.4%
14.1%
2.1%
0.2%
0.6%
2.5%
5.9%
12.9%
24.6%
34.2%
13.8%
1.8%
17
0.9%
2.8%
6.9%
12.3%
21.6%
32.1%
17.2%
18
0.4%
1.0%
2.4%
7.5%
11.5%
20.6%
32.3%
0.7%
1.8%
3.5%
7.7%
10.7%
10.7%
0.4%
1.8%
6.1%
10.8%
15.4%
0.6%
0.6%
1.7%
5.1%
9.7%
0.4%
0.6%
3.4%
6.0%
0.2%
0.4%
4.1%
0.1%
0.9%
1.6%
15
16
19
20
21
0.2%
22
23
24
0.2%
25
0.2%
26
2 yrs +
0.6%
0.1%
5% of Grade 1 learners are 2 or more
years above age-grade norms
26% of Grade 9’s 2 or more years
above age-grade norms
0.3%
38% of Grade 12’s 2 or
more years above
Standardisation of Results
3
1.
57 subjects were presented to Umalusi for standardisation
2.
41 Subjects were accepted as raw scores
3.
6 subjects were adjusted downwards
4.
10 subjects were adjusted upwards
5.
6.
7.
In all cases presented no adjustments exceeded the 10% allowed either upwards or
downwards
In the case of Mathematics: In 2008 298 821 took Mathematics. 136 503 passed and of
these 63 038 passed at 50% desired for entry into most science and engineering HE
fields. There was an outcry that P1 and p2 were too easy. Umalusi indicated that
discrimination at the upper levels should be greater. In 2009 national examiners moved in
that direction while strategically within the subject assessment guidelines laid down by the
Department of Basic Education.
In 2009 296 165 wrote Mathematics, 133 789 passed, 85 491 passed on 40% and
above and 52 866 passed on 50% and above.
Saturday, October 03, 2015
Magnitude and Size
National Examination System: 1 229 937
4
Schools:
1.
Enrolments: Increased-biggest in history
2.
National: 620 192 (includes 39 255 repeater candidates)
3.
EC-15.6 % increase
4.
GP-4.3% increase
5.
LP-10.7 % increase
6.
WC-6.3% increase
Colleges
1.
National: 520 235
2.
122 921 NC (V)
3.
213 900 Engineering
4.
183 414 General Studies
ABET
National: 89 510
Saturday, October 03, 2015
Magnitude and Size
5
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Examination Centres: 7 2 54 NSC
Marking Centres: 114
Markers: 35 000
Chief markers: 828
National examiners: 92
External moderators: 92
Question papers: 197 (130 National Question papers and 67 foreign languages)
QP adapted for Braille: 57
48 QP adapted for deaf learners
All QP, excluding English and African languages, prepared in English and Afrikaans
Subjects Entries: 4 014 732
Moderation of SBA: A minimum of 10% portfolios moderated per subject per school
Saturday, October 03, 2015
56 293
54916
HIST
93666
90054
80 184
113229
93 666
90054
LIFE
ENGFA MATH
LFSC
MLIT
PHSC GEOG BSTD
ACCN ECON ENGHL
2008 571085 464179 298821 297417 263464 218156 213369 204799 176078 183244 94094
2009 575039 469486 290407 298663 277677 220882 215120 206553 174347 153522 96999
100 000
85 400
90136
94 094
96999
183 244
153522
204 799
206553
213 369
215120
218 156
220882
176 078
174347
200 000
263 464
277677
300 000
297 417
298663
400 000
298 821
290407
500 000
571 085
575039
600 000
464 179
469486
6
TOTAL NUMBER OF CANDIDATES WHO WROTE SELECTED SUBJECTS IN
2008 AND 2009
0
AGRS AFRFA AFRHL
85400 80184 56293
90136 113229 54916
Saturday, October 03, 2015
NATIONAL PASS NUMBERS - 2009
7
600,000
552,073
533,561
500,000
400,000
334,718
333,744
300,000
200,000
93,356
131,035
124,258
102,032
109,697
107,274
100,000
0
Wrote
2008
2009
533,561
552,073
Qualified for Higher
Certificate for admission
to Higher Education
102,032
93,356
Qualified for Diploma
for admission to Higher
Education
124,258
131,035
Qualified for Bachelors
for admission to Higher
Education
107,274
109697
Total Achieved
333,744
334718
Numbers Wrote/Passed Per Province
2008
Province
EC
FS
GP
KZN
LP
MP
NW
NC
WC
National
Total wrote
60294
29963
92723
136743
84614
42153
33157
9948
43966
533561
2009
Total Achieved
30496
21503
70822
78747
45958
21815
22554
7230
34479
333604
Total wrote
68129
29808
98659
132176
83350
53978
30665
10377
44931
552073
Total Achieved
34731
20680
70871
80733
40776
25854
20700
6356
34017
334718
Saturday, October 03, 2015
85830
85454
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
109697
86531
2001
85117
67707
2000
75048
68626
80000
63725
No Qualified for Bachelor
100000
82010
120000
107274
Numbers Qualified for Bachelor
2008
2009
60000
40000
20000
0
1999
2002
Academic Years
9
Saturday, October 03, 2015
23.2%
24.4%
24.9%
25.7%
25.4%
24.5%
24.4%
25.5%
25.6%
24.2%
25.0%
26.5%
30.0%
28.6%
35.0%
32.7%
31.2%
Endorsement % based on numbers Passed
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
10
Saturday, October 03, 2015
% Qualified for Bachelor
25
20
18.6
% Qualified for Bachelor
16.9
15
12.5
14
18.2
17
15.1
16.2
20.1
19.9
2008
2009
15.1
10
5
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Academic Years
11
Saturday, October 03, 2015
100000
12
44931
34017
(75.7%)
(61.3%)
(67.5%)
30665
20700
10377
6356
(47.9%)
400000
334718
500000
(60.6%)
Wrote
53978
25854
(48.9%)
61.1%)
600000
83350
40776
132176
80733
(71.8%)
(69.4%)
300000
98659
70871
29808
20680
(51.0%)
200000
68129
34731
Achieved
552073
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES WHO WROTE & PASSED PER PROVINCE - 2009
0
Saturday, October 03, 2015
7,164
6,988
7,292
6,181
2,195
1,953
5,000
2008
2009
8,193
9,107
10,000
6,571
5,912
15,000
10,654
11,240
20,000
18,858
15,164
16,362
14,092
25,000
24,743
22,719
QUALIFIED FOR HIGHER CERTIFICATE PER PROVINCE - 2008 AND 2009
0
13
Saturday, October 03, 2015
10,000
5,000
12,820
12,677
3,044
2,660
15,000
8,647
8,691
20,000
11,174
13,883
25,000
8,832
8,161
16,446
15,375
30,000
8,116
10,165
35,000
28,953
31,406
26,226
28,017
QUALIFIED FOR DIPLOMA HE ENTRIES PER PROVINCE
0
14
Saturday, October 03, 2015
30,000
24,940
26,287
28,248
28,709
QUALIFIED FOR BACHELORS HE ENTRIES PER PROVINCE
2008
2009
14,503
14,324
25,000
10,651
10,202
6,436
6,356
1,997
1,741
5,000
5,535
6,556
10,000
6,291
6,030
15,000
8,673
9,492
20,000
0
15
Saturday, October 03, 2015
100,000
50,000
16
22,563
20,700
21,855
25,854
45,973
40,776
78,762
80,733
34,488
34,017
2008
7,237
6,356
150,000
70,837
70,871
21,518
20,680
30,511
34,731
2009
350,000
333,744
334,718
NUMBERS ACHIEVED PER PROVINCE
300,000
250,000
200,000
0
Saturday, October 03, 2015
1,400
1,782
1,586
1,220
1,300
1,600
1,329
1,416
1,800
1,447
1,662
PASS DISTRIBUTION IN NUMBERS
1,200
2008
2009
1,000
600
509
420
554
447
800
200
44
18
400
0
Exactly
0%
17
0-19.9% 20-39.9% 40-59.9% 60-79.9% 80-100%
Exactly
100%
Saturday, October 03, 2015
PERFORMANCE OF SCHOOLS IN QUINTILE 1
18
677
596
700
600
500
400
300
197
173
200
23
100
0
Below 20%
20-49%
50 - 79%
80 - 99%
100%
National
Saturday, October 03, 2015
PERFORMANCE OF SCHOOLS IN QUINTILE 5
19
335
350
300
181
250
200
158
122
150
100
22
50
0
Below 20%
20-49%
50 - 79%
80 - 99%
100%
National
Saturday, October 03, 2015
DISTRIBUTION OF SCHOOLS PER QUINTILE
20
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1632
1458
1178
790
619
821
National
Saturday, October 03, 2015
PERFORMANCE OF SCHOOLS IN QUINTILE 3
597
498
600
500
400
203
300
200
90
40
100
0
Below 20%
20-49%
50 - 79%
80 - 99%
100%
National
21
Saturday, October 03, 2015
DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF PERFORMANCE - 2009
22
1662
1800
NATIO…
1416
1600
1300
1400
1166
1200
1000
800
420
429
600
400
200
18
0
0%
119.9%
20 39.9%
40 59.9%
60 79.9%
80 99.9%
100%
Saturday, October 03, 2015
Some Gains
23
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
18 512 more candidates wrote the 2009 NSC examination.
39 255 Candidates offered a second opportunity.
The quality of performances is starting to show - 40% pass and above.
Increased numbers qualifying for HE bachelor entries
2 423 More candidates allowed admission to Bachelor studies.
32% of candidates passing in 2009 obtained HE Bachelor qualification
6 777 More candidates allowed admission to diploma studies.
Gap between Female & Male is closing (178 925 – Female: 155 791 Male)
Bachelor passes higher than historical trends e.g. 61 147 female and 48
550 male qualified for bachelor studies )
Two rural provinces with greater share of poverty showing an upward
trend in performance (EC & KZN)
Saturday, October 03, 2015
External Quality Assurance
24
1. Umalusi approved the release of the 2009
NSC results for 8 provinces, excluding
Mpumalanga
2. Mpumalanga results released on 6 January 2010.
After further investigation into alleged leakage of
national question papers prior to the start of the
examinations
Saturday, October 03, 2015
25
SUBJECT RESULTS
Saturday, October 03, 2015
2008
36.83%
98.93%
99.59%
94.54%
92.68%
99.13%
99.25%
92.05%
78.66%
74.66%
73.86%
68.71%
72.21%
80.30%
72.28%
77.86%
71.62%
74.11%
71.88%
70.51%
65.51%
54.93%
45.68%
45.97%
39.90%
51.70%
26
99.34%
99.71%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
61.39%
61.46%
NATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT RATE FOR SELECTED SUBJECTS
2009
Saturday, October 03, 2015
176078
180000
ACCOUNTING
168735
108099
160000
140000
120000
101695
55164
100000
80000
58524
2008
2009
60000
40000
20000
0
27
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
Graph 10: Accounting
180,000
176078
174347
160,000
140,000
108099
107156
120,000
100,000
5516462743
80,000
67979
67191
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Wrote
28
0
Achieved/Pass
0
Achieved at 40%
0 and above
Not Achieved
0
Saturday, October 03, 2015
69173
70000
64528
60000
55777
80000
73808
90000
80184
Afrikaans First Additional Language
52730
50000
2008
2009
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
29
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
53879
53711
53145
60000
55919
56293
Afrikaans Home Language
50775
50000
40000
2008
2009
30000
20000
10000
0
30
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
85668
Agricultural Sciences
89474
90000
80000
44634
70000
60000
50000
45616
2008
2009
12472
40000
30000
20000
19179
10000
0
31
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
196902
200000
151777
250000
204799
Business Studies
139063
87553
150000
100000
89018
2008
2009
50000
0
32
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
33
39416
29502
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
47081
39048
47302
Computer Applications Technology
28335
2008
2009
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
31674
29001
35000
30763
Consumer Studies
30580
30000
23962
18420
25000
20000
2008
2009
15000
10000
5000
0
34
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
9448
9000
8673
10000
9359
Civil Technology
8356
5905
8000
7000
5462
6000
2008
2009
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
35
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
357
356
400
369
Dance Studies
329
292
350
300
282
250
2008
2009
200
150
100
50
0
36
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
5508
4952
5642
5331
6000
5472
Dramatic Arts
4970
5000
4000
2008
2009
3000
2000
1000
0
37
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
2171
1855
2344
2129
2500
2331
Design
2000
1889
1500
2008
2009
1000
500
0
38
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
160000
147681
140000
119779
153833
Economics
104600
120000
54158
100000
80000
60000
45067
2008
2009
40000
20000
0
39
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
6225
7000
6335
6912
Electrical Technology
5197
4159
6000
5000
4000
3097
3000
2008
2009
2000
1000
0
40
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
450000
421926
400000
327335
453959
438832
500000
464179
English First Additional Language
327963
350000
300000
2008
2009
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
41
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
90000
82584
89307
100000
93275
94094
English Home Language
82190
77566
80000
70000
60000
2008
2009
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
42
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
207627
200000
171338
250000
213369
Geography
147326
87308
150000
100000
78537
2008
2009
50000
0
43
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
25000
21735
20000
17401
24671
22684
30000
25018
Engineering Graphics and Design
16631
2008
2009
15000
10000
5000
0
44
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
100000
87308
93666
History
87447
64355
90000
80000
70000
62076
60000
39727
50000
40000
2008
2009
30000
20000
10000
0
45
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
10338
10325
12000
10938
Hospitality Studies
9859
7485
10000
8378
8000
2008
2009
6000
4000
2000
0
46
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
5396
6343
7000
6645
Information Technology
5709
6000
5000
5000
4054
4000
2008
2009
3000
2000
1000
0
47
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
300000
288984
209707
297417
Life Sciences
250000
185306
117787
200000
150000
110985
2008
2009
100000
50000
0
48
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
546463
542918
549978
600000
564984
571085
Life Orientation
537046
500000
400000
2008
2009
300000
200000
100000
0
49
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
298821
300000
Mathematics
282699
200000
150000
125075
100000
89788
136503
250000
2008
2009
78784
50000
0
50
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
8000
6825
6915
7516
Mechanical Technology
6166
7000
4412
6000
5000
4058
2008
2009
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
51
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
250000
196666
200000
150000
144830
264222
207230
300000
263464
Mathematical Literacy
132988
2008
2009
100000
50000
0
52
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
1400
1264
1200
1136
1367
1353
1600
1455
Music
1072
1000
2008
2009
800
600
400
200
0
53
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
250000
218156
Physical Sciences
215810
119823
200000
76146
100000
2008
2009
62530
150000
41899
50000
0
54
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
1600
1660
1399
1026
1400
1284
1800
1471
Religion Studies
1200
1111
1000
2008
2009
800
600
400
200
0
55
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
69583
70000
63082
68752
Tourism
64152
41263
60000
50000
48728
40000
2008
2009
30000
20000
10000
0
56
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
5873
6000
5222
6253
5910
7000
6356
Visual arts
5260
5000
4000
2008
2009
3000
2000
1000
0
57
Wrote
Achieved/Pass
Achieved at 40%
and above
Saturday, October 03, 2015
58
Saturday, October 03, 2015
Supplementary Examinations
59
National: 123 508
Subject Enrolments
EC
17 879


FS
6 058


GP
19 179


KZN 28 849

LP
21 920


MP
13 045


NW
5 972

NC
2 822

WC
7 789
Mathematics-52 893
Physical Science-48
739
M Lit- 16 505
Saturday, October 03, 2015
What are the causes of the problems?
1.
2.
3.
High level of consensus that we face huge
challenges in basic education that require
urgent remediation
Need accurate diagnosis of problems and
causes of failure if we are to design effective
solutions
Failing in primary objective: most schools do
not have conditions required for effective
attainment of learning outcomes
What are the causes of the problems?
(continued)
1.
Key factors contributing to system failure: Socio-cultural
environment within and outside schools; enabling policy
context coupled with capable bureaucracy to support
schools effectively; school management and governance;
teacher capability and commitment; parental involvement;
adequacy of fixed infrastructure; and adequacy of
teaching and learning inputs
Access (Physical, epistemological, and socio-cultural)
Attendance: enrolment and attendance at
school
Enrolment and progression at appropriate age
BASIC ACCESS
Consistent attendance (conversely:
absenteeism)
Contractual access: school adherence to
regulations which enable access for children
Access to physical and human resources
ENABLING ACCESS
Freedom from exposure to a range of harmful
behaviour (bullying, sexual abuse etc)
Attendance by age: an overview
Age Cohort
% OUT of school
Estimated number of children
not in school
7 to 15 years
1.2%
121 373
16 to 18 years
9.8%
317 204
7 to 13 years
1%
75 528
14 to 18 years
6.8%
363 049
7 to 18 years
3.4%
438 577
7 to 15: General Household Survey:98% Community Survey: 95.4%
16 to 18: General Household Survey: 82% Community Survey: 77.1%
Attendance: an overview

Near universal access to school for children aged 7 to 15

High take up of Basic Education Phase

Fairly high enrolment of 16 to 18 age group but….

10% out of school: not leaving to pursue “positive” / productive
opportunities

Take up of the FET Phase lower than Basic Education Phase.
Age Band
Gross Enrolment Rate
Basic Education Phase (Grades 1 to 9)
110.5%
FET Phase (Grades 10 to 12)
94.9% (Gr. 12=82.7%)
Age Band
Net Enrolment Rate
Basic Education Phase (Grades 1 to 9)
95.3%
FET Phase (Grades 10 to 12)
60.0%
Profile of out-of-school children aged 7 – 15



Very high participation of this age group in education

Lower for children living on farms (5.2% out)

Disabled children more vulnerable
Localised, household or child specific

Context: household poverty
between
composite index of
Socio-Economic
Status and being
If out of school:

Negative
relationship
in or out of school.
Marginalised children in marginalised households (Fleisch
et al)
Only 9.8% of out-of-school children
had a sibling out of school
Out-of-school youth aged 16 to 18


Vulnerability context

Disability

Relationship to the household head

Race (….socio-political history designated by race)

Location / settlement type

Poverty and socio-economic status indicators
Reasons youth leave school?

Specific socio-economic histories

Household poverty and cost of education

Teenage pregnancy

Disengagement from / lack of interest in schooling
Bunking school, “We were
late and they locked us out!”
(Thembelihle)
Attendance by race
(ages 16 to 18)
In school
Out of school
Completed Matric/Diploma
100
90
Percentage of learners
80
93.5%
88.6%
82%
76%
70
29% of
coloured boys
(aged 16 to 18)
out of school,
versus 18% of
coloured girls
60
50
40
30
20
21.4%
10
8.8%
2.4%
2.2%
12.2% 5.1%
4.2% 2.3%
0
African
FOCUSED study needed on
causes of high drop out for
coloured youth
Coloured
Indian/Asian
White
Attendance: LOCATION and race
(ages 16 to 18)

Coloured and black children on farms more vulnerable

Coloured youth particularly vulnerable: 48% of coloured youth aged 16 to
18 on farms out of school
Access to low-wage labour?
Percentage of 16 to 18 year olds
OUT of school
Farms schools not providing
tuition up to Grade 12?
Sub-place Type
Historical labour market
access?
Farm
30.60% (51 901)
Informal
14.00% (31 623)
Formal
9.10% (138 089)
Experiences re providing
access to secondary schools
in farming areas?
Communal
7.20% (95 591)
Household poverty provides an overarching context for
school drop out

Multi-dimensional impact of poverty on access

Relationship between socio-economic status and being in / out of school

Responses from caregivers and out-of-school youth


Poverty and cost of education most common reason for drop out (50%
of cases)
BUT process is complex….
Focus on poverty in the broader sense
•
School fees
•
About other access costs (uniforms etc)
•
About daily burden of poverty
•
About relative poverty and social exclusion:
– Educators / school
– Peers
POLICY needs to be underpinned by a multidimensional understanding of poverty,
including relative poverty of child
FOCUS on access costs
1 / 3 of learners who struggled
to pay fees had report cards
withheld
FOCUS on reducing incentives for schools to
economically and socially exclude poorer
learners
Youth disengaged from their education
• In addition…. in-school factors related to school attachment:
• Lack of stimulation at school? Academic and non-academic
• Breakdown of relationship between educator and learner
• Poor learning outcomes (TIMMS etc) and high repetition rates
children alienated from education and disincentivised to remain until
Matric?
RESPONSE? providing academic and nonacademic stimulation, feeling a sense of inclusion
in school (esp. for older children?), empowered
educators and principals….
Alternatives for youth struggling academically?
Quality and retention
inextricably interlinked
Repetition
• 35% of children in school at the time of the survey had repeated
Never repeated
Repeated once
Repeated
twice
Repeated 3
times or more
TOTAL
REPEATED
Foundation Phase
(Grades 1 to 3)
78.6%
3 297 934
17.3%
724 864
3.6%
150 407
0.5%
19 073
21.3%
894 344
Intermediate Phase
(Grades 4 to 6)
68.5%
2 374 098
21.3%
739 601
7.2%
251 044
2.9%
100 638
31.4%
1 091 283
Senior Phase
(Grades 7 to 9)
60.2%
1 830 365
24.4%
741 567
9.8%
297 276
5.6%
170 847
39.8%
1 209 690
FET Phase
(Grades 10 to 12)
48.5%
1 459 508
27.8%
837 388
14.5%
435 914
9.2%
272 648
51.5%
1 545 950
School Phase
9% of youth in the FET
phase had repeated 3 times
or more
Profile of repeaters
• Repetition higher in traditional areas
• Boys more than girls (across race, province and settlement)
• Black children 6 times more likely to repeat than white children
– Race: veil through which to view…
– Differential / unequal access to quality education
– Different / inequality i.t.o living conditions and socio-economic status
– Home language
– Other….
84% of white children go to
Quintile 5 or private schools
11% of black children go to
Quintile 5 or private schools
Repetition and home language

Children who include English as a home language are at a distinct
advantage
Home language
Never repeated
Repeated once
Repeated more than once
English
88.4% (712 548)
9.2% (74 059)
2.4% (19 562)
Afrikaans
75.3% (1 022 932)
18.1% (245 994)
6.5% (88 953)
IsiNdebele
61.4% (181 587)
19.2% (56 771)
19.3% (57 242)
IsiXhosa
63.2% (1 622 097)
24.6% (629 966)
12.3% (313 019)
IsiZulu
66.0% (2469577)
22.4% (839 837)
11.6% (434 343)
Sepedi
59.1% (1179873)
22.5% (448 747)
18.5% (367 988)
Sesotho
63.2% (801 337)
25.2% (319 518)
11.6% (147 047)
Setswana
66.2% (845 131)
23.2% (296 079)
10.7% (136 152)
Siswati
60.0% (176 341)
23.2% (68 303)
16.8% (49 407)
Tshivenda
52.5% (128 589)
22.9% (56 110)
24.6% (58 057)
For black children who include
English as a home language:
80% have never repeated
MIDDLE CLASS CHILDREN
AT AN ADVANTAGE
Access to infrastructure and resources in school
Access to infrastructure: ages 16 to 18 (youth survey)
Percentage of learners
60
50
40
42.4%
39.2%
47.7%
44.4%
No access to tap water in
yard or school building
30
25% 26.4%
20
No access to flushing
toilet or pit (VIP) latrine
(D.W.A.F)
10
0%
3%
0%
0%
0
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Access to infrastructure and resources in school
Access to desks (youth survey: 16 to 18 years)
60
55.3%
44.7%
40
30
20
10
Access to textbooks (youth survey: 16 to 18 years)
0
Always/sometimes had to share a
desk or had no desk at all
Always had own desk
51.5
51
Percentage of learners
Percentage of learners
50
50.9%
50.5
50
49.5
49
49.1%
48.5
48
Had to share text books
Did not have to share text books
Access to human resources in school
•
While on aggregate educator: learner ratios are approx 1:32 in SA (DoE
data), large differences in class sizes…
"Grade 1 has 94
learners, and there is
only one teacher for
all those learners.“
(Phagameng
educator, Limpopo)
Number of learners per class (youth survey: 16 to 18 years)
Percentage of learners
30
26.9%
25
24.8%
20
18.5%
17.9%
50 to 59
60 or more
15
10
10.4%
5
0
1.5%
Less than 20
20 to 29
30 to 39
40 to 49
82% of learners
aged 16 to 18 in
Quintile 5 schools
said teachers always
taught classes when
they were supposed
to, contrasted with
49% in Quintile 1
schools (youth
survey)
Youth perceptions of the biggest problems facing youth at school
Biggest problems facing youth at school
No respect, learners
provoke teachers
10%
Gangsterism,violence
at school,severe
10%
bullying
18%
Smoking cigarettes at school
25%
Learner alcohol abuse
26%
Teenage pregnancy / Learner mothers
34%
Selling and taking drugs at/outside school
0
5
10
15
20
25
Percentage of responses
30
35
40
Time taken to get to school for those who walk to school and are
10 yrs or younger
Time taken to travel to
school
Farms
Formal
Informal
Traditional
Up to 10 mins
23.8%
54.3%
27.5%
30.2%
11 to 30 mins
20.7%
40.1%
63.0%
47.4%
31 to 1 hour
45.3%
4.8%
8.5%
19.5%
More than an hour
10.2%
.8%
1.0%
3%
TOTAL
100%
100%
100%
100%
Learner Retention in the South African
Education System (May 2008)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
80
Drop out rate below grade 9 is statistically insignificant
Drop out rate increases sharply in Grades 10-12 (Report disputes SAHRC and
Mail and Guardian version)
No evidence of anomalies between Grades 1 and 2 (High repetition of Grade 1
cited)
Retention is improving, so are the levels of education attainment
Younger age groups have a better chance of progressing to secondary school
than older age groups
South Africa compares favorably to other developing countries on progression
rates, enrolment rates and levels of educational attainment
Survival rate estimates indicates improving trends in general education: This
means younger age groups have a better chance of ultimately completing
compulsory education than older age groups
Learner Retention in the South African Education
System - May 2008
GET Group
Birth Rates
Age in 2007
% ultimately
completing Grade 9
1.
1970-74
33-37
71.6
2.
1975-79
28-32
78.8
3.
1980-84
23-27
81.1
4.
1985-89
18-22
86.2
5.
1990-94
13-17
Too soon to tell
Leaner Retention in the South African Education System
(May 2008)
FET Group
1.
2.
3.
4.
Birth dates
1970-74
1975-79
1980-84
1984-89
Age in 2007
33-37
28-32
23-27
18-22
Level
Percentage with Grade 9
reaching level
Grade 10
89.0
Grade 11
75.0
Grade 12
59.7
Grade 10
89.5
Grade 11
75.6
Grade 12
57.5
Grade 10
89.2
Grade 11
74.9
Grade 12
56.7
Too early to tell
Key outputs and targets for
outcome: “Quality Basic Education”
2010-2014
Focussing on outcomes
3

Better Senior
Certificate Exam
Performance


Performance is major determinant of access to tertiary level
Improved performance is indicator of better-educated young people who are therefore more capable of
finding a job
Improved country competitiveness and greater innovation in all spheres results from having more
graduates with higher levels of academic and practical skills
Metric
Bachelor’s
Degree
Qualifiers
Maths and
Science
pass rate

Number of learners qualifying to study
at the Bachelors level after Grade 12
Current
Value1
107,000
Target
Value2
175,000

Mathematics passes3
136,184
250 000

Physical Science passes
149,676
171,600
Rationale

Implies a 10% increase per annum

This will increase competition for places at university,
thereby raising the calibre of students at both universities
and non-degree tertiary institutions

This increase will bring overall maths pass rate up to
~50%, requiring an YOY increase in students who pass of
13%

Physical science pass rate to rise from 70% to 80% (2.8%
YOY)
Note: 12008 or 2009 value unless otherwise indicated; 22014 value unless otherwise indicated; 3Mathematics does not include the subject Maths Literacy
Source: Education Statistics in South Africa, 2007; Expert Interviews; Dept of Education; Monitor Analysis
Focussing on outcomes
2 Improved Literacy
and Numeracy at
Schools

Literacy and numeracy are important building blocks in establishing an educational foundation for later learning

Improved literacy and numeracy at schools are important to improve overall levels of literacy in society, which
results in social benefits, such as health benefits

Higher numeracy and literacy will reduce dropouts and grade repetition and thus increase efficiency of educational
system
Metric
Current
Value1
Target
Value2
Grade 3
Literacy
and
Numeracy3

Percentage of learners functioning at
the required level in Literacy
36%
60%

Percentage of learners functioning at
the required level in Numeracy
35%
60%
Grade 6
Literacy
and
Numeracy3

Percentage of learners functioning at
the required level in Language
38%
60%

Percentage of learners functioning at
the required level in Maths
27%
60%
Grade 9
Literacy
and
Numeracy3

Percentage of learners functioning at
the required level in Language
N/ A
60%

Percentage of learners functioning at
the required level in Maths
N/ A
60%
Rationale

Testing both literacy and numeracy at the end of each of
the major phases of the education process will indicate
the efficacy of teaching and learning within each phase,
and indicate where further work needs to be done

Over 5 years it should be achievable to raise the
proportion of students operating at the required level to
60%,
– This will particularly apply if the focus of attention and
resources is the bottom 80%
– The differentiated targets take into account the large
disparities that continue to exist in the system
Note: 12008 or 2009 value unless otherwise indicated; 22014 value unless otherwise indicated; 3Based on scores attained in systematic evaluations of Literacy and Numeracy administered by
independent bodies commissioned by the Dept of Education
Source: Dr A Kanjee, HSRC; Dr V Reddy, Dept of Education; Dept of Education Staff; Expert Interviews; Monitor Analysis
Activities that will improve the quality of schooling
 Teachers (continued)
1
High Quality of
Teaching and
Learning


Higher curriculum completion levels and increased teacher attendance will result in better learning
High availability of LTSMs 3 and standardized lesson plans will reduce teacher inconsistency and mitigate
low teacher quality
Metric

Delivery of
LTSMs3
Easy-to-use LTSMs3 available to
teachers at bottom 80% of schools
– Lesson plans, Gr. 1-9
– Gr. 1-6: Workbooks
Current
Value1
Target
Value2
Not
known4
100%
Not known
No target
Rationale

Consistent provision of LTSMs 3 that are accessible to
teachers and learners will provide crucial support to both
parties

Knowing that objective evaluations are conducted,
teachers will be motivated to absorb the subject material,
and as a result should be better able to teach their
classes; f urthermore, teachers will be empowered to
identif y and address areas in which they need to improve
– Gr. 7-12: Workbooks and textbooks
– Teacher Manuals

Teacher
Quality
Improvement
Average % scores attained by teachers
in IQMS5 evaluations

Average % scores attained by teachers
in independent evaluations
Not known
TBC

Curriculum coverage
Not known
100%

Pedagogy assessment
Not known
70% 6
These metrics need to be measured in
order to establish an appropriate
baseline and target
Note: 12008 or 2009 value unless otherwise indicated; 22014 value unless otherwise indicated; 3Learning and Teaching Support Materials – workbooks ,lesson plans and teacher manuals; 4No
value for LTSM delivery as this is a new initiative, however, distribution of textbooks to schools is currently at 98%; 5Integrated Quality Management System, which is an internally administered
assessment by schools; 6Achievement in Assessment of essentials of pedagogy, however 100% of teachers should attain this required level in knowledge and practice of teaching
Source: Expert Interviews; Dept of Education Staff; Monitor Analysis
Activities that will improve the quality of schooling
4
Early Childhood
Development


Grade R is a critical preparatory period for a child’s time in school, as participation in Grade R is thought
to be a crucial determinant of success in the first years of primary school
Other factors such as nutrition and health status are influential factors on early educational development
Metric
National
Participation
of Grade R
Learners
Access to
and Quality
of ECD
Facilities
Home
Environment
Stimulation
Current
Value1
Target
Value2

Number of children registered f or Grade
R as % of the age 5 population cohort
~70%
95%

No. of schools offering Grade R
17,600
TBC

Children in subsidised f acilities

Enrolment in (subsidised) ECD f acilities

% of staf f trained to standard levels

Child:Staf f ratios


Rationale

It is imperative to accelerate access f or all children to this
opportunity

A 13.7% YOY increase in the number of children in Grade
R f acilities is a high, but achievable target
375,000
600,000

2010/11 target f rom 2006 was 560,000
16% (2006)
22%

This is the original 2011 target (Biersteker & Streak, p.71)
12%
60%

Ambitious target necessary to stimulate EPWP training
Avg. 30:1
8:1 (<3y)
20:1 (3-5y)

Impact of ECD is diminished where ratios are too high
% of f acilities offering nutritional support
N/ A
TBC

Nutrition is a major f actor in successf ul development
% of children who spend 20 hrs of
educationally stimulating time with
caregivers (e.g. playing games with
shapes and colors, rawing) per week
N/ A
To be
measured

Much of childhood development occurs outside formal
educational contexts
Note: 12008 or 2009 value unless otherwise indicated; 22014 value unless otherwise indicated
Source: V Reddy, HSRC; Dept of Education Staff; Monitoring the Wellbeing of Children: A Rights- and Evidence-based Approach for South Africa, A Dawes; Scaling up Early Childhood
Development (ECD) (0-4 years) in South Africa: ECD In South Africa, Biersteker and Streak, 2008; Expert Interviews; Monitor Analysis
KEY INTERVENTIONS AND ACTIVITIES
DESIGNED TO ACHIEVE THE OUTPUTS
AND TARGETS IDENTIFIED
Ensure credible outcomes-focussed
planning and accountability system
1.
2.
3.
Necessary condition for effective turnaround
Critical to establish comprehensive and contextuallyrelevant accountability system
Standardised and credible learner performance
assessments in Grades 3, 6 & 9. Ensure parents and
other stakeholders use this for school improvement and
accountability
A basic education sector plan/ACTION PLAN
1.
2.
3.
4.
Key innovation for 2010: Basic Education Sector Plan.
Will contain clear outputs, targets and activities
Will form basis for sector accountability as well as all
levels of system down to school level
Will serve to purposefully marshal stakeholder
involvement in practical implementation
Ensure minimum threshold of school
functionality
1.
2.
3.
Single most important factor if one excludes socioeconomic factors from equation
Establish – in collaboration with provincial education
departments – national education management
development academy
Establish adequate capability in districts to effectively
support schools – marshal private sector and NGO
support
Ensure all teacher have required capability,
commitment and practice
1.
2.
3.
4.
Some teachers have problems with content
knowledge
And some in respect of commitment and practice
This despite significant investment in teacher
development
Strategy 2 dimensions:
1.
2.
Labour peace and stability
Dedicated teacher development Institute
Ensure effective implementation of the
curriculum
1.
2.
2009 review led to important revisions: Streamline
learning areas, teacher administrative burden,
development and supply of textbooks and other learning
and teaching support materials
Focus on numeracy and literacy in early grades plus
maths, science and languages in senior grades
Ensure effective implementation of the
curriculum (continued)
1.
2.
3.
Supply workbooks and other resources that
compensate for challenges in teacher capability and
school/system functionality
Improved capability at district level to support
curriculum implementation
e-Learning strategy
Ensure bureaucracies have capability to support
school improvement and accountability
1.
2.
3.
Serious weaknesses in this area, especially in provincial
and district structures that serve areas catering for high
concentrations of poor learners
All education departments need to reconfigure
themselves to be more capable of direct support,
ensuring accountability and undertaking required
interventions
This is a key priority for the basic education sector going
forward
Improve learner retention
Important issue that has attracted much interest
Gross enrolment is about 88% but only 50% of youths
reach Grade 12 and about a third of youths obtain a NSC
We compare favourably to other countries (Brazil,
Botswana, Thailand) but clearly situation not ideal
Two-fold strategy:
1.
2.
3.
4.
1.
2.
Quality and pass rate throughout schooling system
More post-school alternative pathways
Achieve universal and quality Grade R and
ECD
1.
Aim of universal Grade R in 2014 stands.
2.
Serious concerns around the quality of Gr R in many
schools – poorly paid and under-qualified teachers in some
schools, excessive number of learners per class in others.
One intervention currently under way is increase in number
of teachers with at least level 4 (Gr 12) training. Further
quality improvement strategies will have to be developed
3.
Increase coverage of children in subsidised ECD sites and
improve practitioner training
Ensure adequate resourcing of schools
Had huge investment, but too many learners continue to
experience conditions that are unacceptable. Two main
reasons for this:
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
Below adequate funding and resource inputs
Poor capacity to convert financial resources to required inputs,
effective utilisation and maintenance thereof
Research shows No Fee policy working well
Will develop a comprehensive infrastructure development
action plan during 2010 to deal with pressing
shortcomings
Conclusion

Contents of presentation has drawn from discussion
in HD Cluster, Council of Education Ministers,
HEDCOM, IPEAC, 2010 Cabinet Lekgotla
and with stakeholders
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