What are the interactions between Food Security and Planetary Boundaries? ? John Ingram NERC Food Security Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996) … is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems GECAFS Food System Concept Food System ACTIVITIES ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, … and economic access to sufficient, safe, and Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, … preferences for an active and healthy life. Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, … (World Food Summit 1996) Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: • • • • • • Social Welfare Income Employment Wealth Social capital Political capital Human capital Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS •Nutritional Value •Social Value •Food Safety •Affordability •Allocation •Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY •Production •Distribution •Exchange Environmental Welfare • Ecosystem stocks & flows • Ecosystem services • Planetary Boundaries So what are the contributions of Food Systems to crossing Planetary Boundaries? Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food ? 1: Agriculture as a driver of Landcover Change Extensification Pressure on many (?all) Planetary Boundaries Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2: Agriculture as a driver of GHG emissions 70% of arable GHG emissions connected with N fertilizer (manufacture, use): Agriculture 13% CO2 & N2O EarthTrends, 2008 Contribution of agriculture to crossing planetary boundaries Campbell 2011, based on Bennett et al. (in prep.) Contribution of capture fisheries to crossing planetary boundaries But ‘Food Systems’ involve more than producing food … Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, … Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, … Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, … … and a major proportion of GHG emissions from food systems are not from agriculture Edwards et al., Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, 2009 Food Processing • • • • • • Common characteristics of wastes from the industry Large amounts of organic materials such as proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids Large amounts of suspended solids depending on the source High biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or chemical oxygen demand (COD) High N concentration High suspended oil or grease contents High variations in pH Most have higher levels than municipal sewage Kroyer, 1995 Processing Food Water use in Canadian food processing Mm3/yr % of all industrial use Intake 347.2 4.7 Discharge 320.1 Consumption 27.1 Water use 5.2 Food processing plants are responsible for 4.7% of total manufacturing intake but account for 5.2% of total consumption Dupont & Renzetti, Can J Ag Econ, 1998 Packaging Food Packaging: some environmental issues • Litter • Use of raw materials for packaging • Ease and convenience of packaging disposal • Adverse consequences of careless disposal of packaging • Feasibility of recycling or reuse • Real and virtual energy content Retailing food Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of supermarkets’ direct GHG emissions (Environment Investigation Agency, 2010) Guardian 1 February 2009 But the retail industry is “tidying up” Net GHG emissions connected with premises, transport and refrigerants The Co-operative Group Sustainability Report 2008/09 Consuming Food Breakdown (%) of energy use in commercial kitchens in the US (broadly similar in the UK) 19 19 23 Space heating Water heating Cooking Ventilation Office equipment Refridgeration Other Cooling Lighting Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009 Consuming Food Environmental and operational CO2 usage (kgCO2) per meal served Facility Environment Operational Combined Primary School 0.07 0.11 0.18 Fast food outlet 0.19 0.29 0.48 Ministry of Defence: - junior ranks’ mess 0.43 0.64 1.07 - officers’ mess 0.76 1.13 1.89 Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009 Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Climate change N cycle P cycle Fresh water use Land use change Biodiversity loss Atmos. aerosols Chemical pollution Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change GHGs, albedo Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain GHGs from cooking N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs Effluent NOx from transport Waste P cycle P reserves Detergents Fresh water use Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning Land use change Intensificn, soil degdn Paper/card Transport & retail infrastructure Forest to edible oils plantation Biodiversity loss Deforestation, [Aluminium] soils, fishing Invasive spp Consumer choices Atmos. aerosols Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking Chemical pollution Pesticides Transport emissions Cooking, cleaning Effluent Waste ‘Food Security’ is now the BIG ISSUE Independent; 16 October 2011: World Food Day Food systems are already failing many: 1.02 billion people hungry in 2009 Developed 15m “In New York City the number of people having NENA 42m trouble paying for food Asia & Pac has increased 60%, to 3.3m, since 2003 and ... a staggering one in five 642m of the city's children rely on soup kitchens - up by 48% since 2004” LAC 53m SSA Economist, Jan 14th 2010 265m “One new food bank opens every week in UK as more people find they cannot afford to feed themselves and their families” London Times, April 17th 2012 Food systems are failing a further 2 billion! 1 billion with insufficient nutrition 1 billion with too much food and/or “poor” diet How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security? Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference ? FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit, 1996) Concern that climate change will undermine food production in many parts of the world… Anticipated wheat yield decline by 2030 Reduction in wheat yields 0 - 5% 5 -10% 10 -15% 15 - 20% > 20% Australia exports 15 Mt/yr (~19% of world exports) Kokic, et al. Australian Commodities, 2005 … further compromised by O3 pollution. • Significant yield losses for important food crops • Adaptation strategies were modelled, e,g. change of timing of crop growth period to avoid peak ozone, but no marked improvement was found T a u h m o c n n a 4 p d d Extreme weather events also disrupt food distribution systems … … and food storage … … and food safety. • Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage • Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in pest pressure • Trace elements and/or heavy metals in plant products depending on changes in their abundance and availability in soils • Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in foods following changes in long-range atmospheric transport and deposition into the environment • Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms • Pathogenic bacteria in foods following more frequent extreme weather conditions, such as flooding and heat waves. Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009 Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability Consequences of the 2008 Food Price Crisis Bringing it all together Need to consider FS:PB interactions in context of drivers and feedbacks Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level Food System ACTIVITIES ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Food System OUTCOMES DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion Contributing to: Food Security Social Welfare Food Utilisation Environ Welfare Food Access Food Availability So what do we do about it? Adapt to inevitable change Mitigate further change Adaptation “doing things differently” Producing food => adapt our Food System “Activities” Processing & packaging food Distributing & retailing food Consuming food Adaptation: Improved agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture, fisheries, … • More varied crops • Stress-tolerant varieties • Wider range of food stuffs • Novel food producing systems • Improve water mgmt • Insurance for producers •… Adaptation: Preserving crop varieties for the future • Opened 2008 • > 4,000,000 samples • -18 oC • “Climate-change proof” Adaptation: Improving food storage ~ 15-25% losses to pests and damp in store Adaptation: Considering novel foods? Tuomisto & Teixeira de Mattos. Env Sci & Tech, 2011 Mitigation: improving N-use efficiency? China grain production and fertilizer consumption (1980 = 100) 375 Grain 327 Fertilizer 204 139 100 144 151 100 1980 1990 2000 2005 Considerable food production achievement BUT inefficient use (quantity, timing) Still a need to improve N-use efficiency N inputs – N output in crop kg N/ha/yr Western Kenya (maize-based system) North China (maize-wheat) USA (maize-soybean) -52 +227 +10 Vitousek et al, Science, 2009 Mitigation: reduced tillage? Reduce SOC oxidation Reduce input energy Mitigation: Sequestering more carbon in soil? N Cost of Carbon Sequestration • At a C/N ratio of 12 in soil organic matter (SOM), 1 tonne of stored C requires 83 kg N/ha • At approximately $0.85/kg N applied, N cost of 1 tonne SOM is $71/ha • Current price of C on European market is <$25… Ken Cassman, pers comm Mitigation: Reducing food miles? The Well Travelled Yogurt Pot: Stefanie Böge What about us as individuals? Adaptation/Mitigation: Accepting less choice? Tesco Oxford has 25,000 different food lines… Adaptation & Mitigation: Modifying our diets? => One of the biggest, most immediate impacts! Behavioural Change and Personal Action CO2 emissions Emissions reductions (MtCO2e) achievable if adopted by 100% of the US population Consume less red meat and diary: Eat poultry in place of red meat and consume plant-based food rather than dairy two days per week 105 Waste less food: Reduce consumer food waste by 25% 65 Reducing food waste • May occur anywhere along the supply chain, from farm to final consumer • Difficult to measure • Globally, 15-50% of food is lost postharvest • Often unnoticed until too late Reducing food waste Derived from Lundqvist, 2009 & Godfray et al, 2010 Reducing food waste • Every household in the UK wastes between £250 and £400 of food per year • Avoidable waste of cereal-based food in the UK and USA could lift 224 million people out of hunger • Producing and distributing edible food that goes to waste accounts for around 5% of all UK GHG emissions Food Ethics Council, 2009 Alleviating food insecurity by reducing food waste is as important as by increasing food production … … environmentally, economically and ethically! ? Thank you!