Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical,
social and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO 1996; 2012)
… is more than food production
… is underpinned by food systems
The “Food System” Concept
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …
Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …
Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Social Welfare
Income
Employment
Wealth
Social capital
Political capital
Human capital
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD
UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
•Nutritional Value
•Social Value
•Food Safety
•Affordability
•Allocation
•Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
•Production
•Distribution
•Exchange
Environmental
Welfare
• Ecosystem stocks &
flows
• Ecosystem services
• Planetary
Boundaries
So what are the contributions of
Food Systems to crossing
Planetary Boundaries?
Food System
ACTIVITIES
Producing food
Processing & Packaging food
Distributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
?
Agriculture as a source of GHG emissions
Mt CO2-e, 2010
~21%, including land-use
change
Worldwatch Institute’s Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org)
Crossing planetary boundaries
And the contribution of agriculture & fisheries
Climate change
Rate of
biodiversity
loss
Nitrogen
cycle
But ‘Food Systems’ involve more than ‘agriculture’
…
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, …
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …
Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …
Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
… and a major proportion of GHG emissions from
‘OECD’ food systems are not from agriculture.
1
8
2
1
10
23
15
45
7
12
60
10
87
19
UK
USA
Producing
Distributing
Processing
Consuming
Garnett, FCRN, 2009
Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009
India
Waste
disposing
Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys & Env, 2010
UK’s food industry “costs”
(post-farmgate)
• 14% of energy consumption
by UK businesses and 7
million tonnes of carbon
emissions per year
• 10% of all industrial use of the
public water supply
• 10% of the industrial and
commercial waste stream
• 25% of all HGV vehicle
kilometres in the UK
defra, 2006
Example
contributions of
FSAs to PBs
Climate change
N cycle
P cycle
Fresh water use
Land use change
Biodiversity loss
Atmos.
aerosols
Chemical
pollution
Producing
food
Processing &
Packaging food
Distributing &
Retailing food
Consuming
food
Example
contributions of
FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing &
Packaging food
Distributing &
Retailing food
Consuming
food
Climate change
GHGs, albedo
Energy
Emissions from
transport and
cold chain
GHGs from
cooking
N cycle
Eutrophicn,
GHGs
Effluent
NOx from
transport
Waste
P cycle
P reserves
Detergents
Fresh water use
Irrigation
Washing,
heating, cooling
Cleaning food
Cooking, cleaning
Land use change
Intensificn, soil
degdn
Paper/card
Transport &
retail
infrastructure
Forest to edible
oils plantation
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation,
soils, fishing
[Aluminium]
Invasive spp
Consumer
choices
Atmos.
aerosols
Dust
Shipping
Smoke from
cooking
Chemical
pollution
Pesticides
Transport
emissions
Cooking, cleaning
Effluent
Waste
Looking ahead …?
(indicative; not to scale)
kcal/person/day
2050
The health and environmental consequences of
satisfying this demand with current food
systems would be dire
2025
2013
2200
- Too much - ----- Appropriate amount ----- -- Too little ------- Too much ------ ---- Appropriate amount ----
--- Too little ---
----------- Too much ------------ --- Appropriate amount --- ----- Too little ----1
2
3
4
5
6
Billions of people
7
8
9
10
Re-allocating human edible food
back to humans?
2.3 bn tons cereal produced in 2010/11
Other
19%
Food
47%
Feed
34%
FAO Food Outlook 2013
Reducing food losses and waste?
Source: FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011
Cereals: A plausible way ahead by 2025
50% more cereal cals/person/day, despite harvesting 15% less/person
Edible cereal
harvest 3150
After 15%
lost onfarm
2675
15% reduction due
to population
increase and
environmental
change
2675
kcal/person/day
3000
2500
2000
2400
33% reduction
in on-farm
losses
After 34%
fed to
animals
67% reduction
in feeding to
animals
2125
After 19%
for biofuel
50% reduction
in use for
biofuels
1900
1775
1500
After 15% lost
in food chain
50% reduction
in food chain
losses
1725
1250
850
1000
500
On-farm
Animal feed
Biofuel
Food chain
Nature of food ‘loss’ ‘Current’ data (in red) from FAO; & Luo, 2013
Cereals: A plausible way ahead by 2025
50% more cereal cals/person/day, despite harvesting 15% less/person
Edible cereal
harvest 3150
After 15%
lost onfarm
2675
15% reduction due
to population
increase and
environmental
change
2675
kcal/person/day
3000
2500
2000
2400
33% reduction
in on-farm
losses
After 34%
fed to
animals
67% reduction
in feeding to
animals
2125
After 19%
for biofuel
50% reduction
in use for
biofuels
1900
1775
1500
After 15% lost
in food chain
50% reduction
in food chain
losses
1725
1250
850
1000
500
On-farm
Animal feed
Biofuel
Food chain
Nature of food ‘loss’ ‘Current’ data (in red) from FAO; & Luo, 2013
Optimum FS management needs to understand FS
processes in context of drivers and feedbacks
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality, GHGs
GEC DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents
& salinity, Sea level
Food System ACTIVITIES
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Producing food
Processing & Packaging food
Distributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMES
DRIVER
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
Science & Technology
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion
Contributing to:
Food Security
Social
Welfare
Food
Utilisation
Environ
Welfare
Food
Access
Food
Availability
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