TROPA-UCM on HyMeX: Mediterranean
Sea and Global climate
TROPA-UCM are
At UCM:
PhD students: Jorge Lopez Parages, Marta Martin del Rey, Esteban
Rodriguez Guisado (at AEMET), Nube Gonzalez Reviriego (also in USAL)
Post-Doc: Javier Garcia Serrano (now at IC3), Teresa Losada Doval,
Irene Polo Sánchez
Permanent: Belen Rodriguez de Fonseca, Elsa Mohino Harris
TROPA “TROPical Atlantic” group
http:/tropa.fis.ucm.es
TROPA “TROPical Atlantic” group
http:/tropa.fis.ucm.es
TROPA
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Tropical-Climate Variability
Air-Sea interactions
Atmospheric Teleconnections
Climate Change
Earth System Modelling
1970’s Climate Shift
Variabilidad Climática Global
Cambio del estado base ?
(low-frecuency variability)
Rodriguez-Fonseca et al.2009
Rodriguez-Fonseca B., I. Polo, J. Garcia-Serrano, T. Losada, E. Mohino, C. R. Mechoso and F. Kucharski (2009): Are the Atlantic Niños
enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades?. Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 36, L20705, DOI: 10.1029/2009 GL040048, 2009.
Temas activos de investigación
MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall
MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes
Variabilidad Multidecadal en la region Mediterránea
Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo
MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall
Polo et al. 2008
SST eMed
PCP Sudán-Sahel
Polo et al. 2008
Change in the Global signal of the Mediterranean Pattern
Rodriguez-Fonseca et al., 2010
Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, García-Serrano J (2008) Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I:
time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall. J Clim 21:6457-6475.
Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; S. Janicot, T. Losada, E. Mohino, M. Joly, A. Voldoire, B. Fontaine, J. Bader, C. Caminade, I.
Polo, J. Garcia-Serrano, F. Chauvin, P. Ruti, S. Gervois, P. Rocou, 2010. Interanual to decadal SST forced responses of
the West African Monsoon. Atmos. Sci. Lett. Accepted.
MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall
psi850
wind950
Fontaine et al. 2009.
-Negative SLP anomalies over the eastern basin
(Raicich et al. 2003)
-Weakening of the climatological NE winds
(Peyrillé et al. 2007)
More northward migration of the WAM-rainbelt
local forcing !!
large-scale predictor ??
Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Roucou P, Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Losada T, Chauvin F, Gervois S, Sijikumar S, Ruti ,P, Janicot S (2009)
Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979-2006)
and climate simulations. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0599-3.
MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes
Observaciones
SST
thermal forcing
N.Pacf N.AmerN.Atl
geopotential zlon profile
<30N-40N>
MED
Z200
U200-climatology
baroclinic structure
over the MED basin
circumglobal
propagation-pattern
quasi-barotropic
structure anywhere
in the lat band
waveguiding effect
of the NAA jet
ChinaN.Pacf
García-Serrano et al. (submitted)
García-Serrano et al. (submitted)
García-Serrano J, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Losada T (submitted): Large- Scale Atmospheric Response to Eastern Mediterranean
Summer SST Anomalies. Clim Dyn.
MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes
• Simulaciones
WARM-CTL (UCLA-AGCM)
psi200
U200-climatology
waveguided anomalous
circulation
local-baroclinic structure
remote-barotropic pattern
anticyclonic anomalies
over China-North Pacific
Europe
García-Serrano et al. (submitted)
Observaciones y experimentos de sensibilidad evidencian, a partir de la década de los 70, una respuesta
atmosférica de gran escala asociada a anomalías de SST en el Mediterráneo oriental .
Variabilidad Multidecadal en la region Mediterránea
Impacto de la variabilidad natural multidecadal en los modos interanuales de la precipitación
sobre el área Euro-Mediterránea
1902-2003 winter interannual patterns (EOF1 ) : Multidecadal natural vs antropogenic modulation
fvar (%)
AMO
PDO
GW
a)
16%
b)
16%
1950-1970
1979-1999
c)
16%
AMO
PDO
GW
d)
16%
Lopez-Parages et al., 2010
López-Parages J, Rodríguez- Fonseca B, (EGU 2010): The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Euro-Mediterranean Region.
Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo
Observaciones
1958-1978
CRU
1979-2001
CRU
1979-2001
CMAP
JAS SST
JAS precipitation
Precipitation EC
Losada et al. (submitted)
SST EC
EMCA analysis:
Atlantic MAM-OND SST (30S-10N, 60W-35E)
JAS Mediterranean precipitation (30N-50N, 15W-40E).
Losada T, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Kucharski F. (submitted): On the nature of the relationship between the Atlantic Niño and the
summer Mediterranean climate. What has changed in recent decades?. Geophy. Res. Lett.
Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo
1979-2001 Observed response to the
Tropical AtlanticVariability
JAS SST
The SST pattern shows significant anomalies over the
whole tropical basins.
It also shows a significant SST anomalous lobes over
the North Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea.
Losada et al. (submitted)
JAS z200
Anomalous high circulations responsible for
the decrease of precipitation over eastern and
western Europe.
Anomalous low circulation responsible for the
increase of precipitation over central Europe.
precipitation
Regression of the observed fields
onto the observed EMCA SST-EC
Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo
Losada et al. (submitted)
Losada T, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Kucharski F. (submitted): On the nature of the relationship between the Atlantic Niño and the
summer Mediterranean climate. What has changed in recent decades?. Geophy. Res. Lett.
Importancia del Mediterráneo en Variabilidad Climática Global
TROPA tiene ganas de colaborar
?
UCM - TROPA
FIN
Large-scale atmospheric response to Eastern Mediterranean summer SST anomalies
CONCLUSIONS
- Observations and modelling evidences support a large-scale atmospheric
response associated with summer eastern-Mediterranean SST anomalies
- Results support the hypothesis of a hemispheric pattern initiated in the
Mediterranean basin, pointing out both a local baroclinic response and a
barotropic circumglobal circulation
- Local baroclinic response plays an important role in the latitudinal migration
of the WAM system
- Global teleconnection extends to the entire Northern Hemisphere, reflecting
the waveguide effect of the westerly jet, and having a surface impact on the
North Pacific and Europe
References:
Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Roucou P, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, Chauvin F, Gervois S, Sivarajan S, Ruti P, Janicot S (2009)
Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (19792006) and climate simulations. Clim. Dyn.
García-Serrano J, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I (2009) Large-scale atmospheric response to Mediterranean summer SST anomalies.
Submitted to Clim. Dyn.
Importancia del Mediterráneo en Variabilidad Climática Global
TROPA tiene ganas de colaborar
• Cambio de tendencia actual en la sst del mediterráneo similar
al de los 70’s?
relación con cambios en la variabilidad
multidecadal natural
specific questions (HyMeX UCM-CRC-Ibimet)
The work consists in 5 tasks of research which are inter-related at intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales and are defined
as follows:
1 Global climate remote influence on Mediterranean climate variability. (i) Study of the atmospheric remote influences on
the MD from Pacific Ocean, such as the well-known oscillations: MJO, ENSO, PDO. (ii) Study of the interactions between
MD and both the Atlantic and the Monsoon climate systems with a focus on the dynamical and thermodynamic processes.
2 The Mediterranean influence on the global climate variability. Investigation of the Mediterranean SST variability as a
source of heat available to the atmosphere with a possible global response and impacts. This part will partly focus on the
impacts of the Mediterranean SST on (i) the West African Monsoon and (ii) the extratropical circulation.
3 Large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional/local atmospheric circulation in the western and central MD. Study of the
interactions between Atlantic/Mediterranean weather regimes and (i) intense cylogenesis linked with heavy rainfall, strong
winds and storms in the MD and (ii) severe dry-spell, with a focus on the European and Northern African Mediterranean
coast.
4 Recent trends in the MD and interactions with global change. Study of recent global trends and Mediterranean changes.
This point will focus (i) on recent trends in mean climate conditions, (ii) on trends of the frequency of intense hydrometeorological events in the MD (intense cylogenesis, heavy rainfall, storms, and dry-spells) and (iii) trends in the frequency
of weather regimes leading to these specific events. Investigation of the causes of the change distinguishing global warming
and natural low-frequency variability.
5 Analysis of the atmospheric circulation variability in future climate. Investigation of global climate variability from IPCC
simulations and interactions with atmospheric circulation in the MD. Impacts on cyclogenesis and dry-spell in the western
and central MD.
FURTHER WORK
-Observed signal using 1979-2001 period; is this a
consequence of the recent climate trends? (natural vs
anthropogenic)
-Investigate the asymmetry between positive/negative
thermal forcing in the Mediterranean eastern basin over
European Region: AMMA Simulations
-Investigate NAO/Mediterranean SST relationship from the
WR and AMMA simulations.
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