Islamic Fundamentalist Terrorism “If there is a single power the West underestimates, it is the power of collective hatred.” Ralph Peters, 1999. For More info see… • Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror, Michael Scheuer • Through Our Enemies' Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and the Future of America, Revised Edition, Michael Scheuer • The Trouble With Islam Today, Irshad Manji • The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on the Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States • The Great War for Civilisation: The Conquest of the Middle East, Robert Fisk • The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11, Lawrence Wright Terrorism • The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence to intimidate or coerce societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons. • The unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives (FBI) • Potentially politically loaded term • One person’s “terrorist” is another’s “freedom fighter” • Terrorism most clearly defined by two characteristics • Combatants do not represent a state • Combatants deliberately target civilians • Terrorism & terrorists violate int’l rules of war Popular Beliefs and Misconceptions about Terrorism • There is a widespread, but probably incorrectly belief that: • Terrorists are psychotic or mentally ill • Terrorists suffer personality disorders • Terrorist violence is the result of personal frustration, or economic deprivation • Terrorist violence is a reaction to personal grievances, including personal humiliation, anger, or shame • Terrorists are victims of physical or psychological coercion from mastermind recruiters ("brainwashing") Terrorism as Strategy • Terrorism as weapon in a strategy • Terrorist attacks = form of strategic communication • Terrorism is not new • Terrorism is not merely religious: 1980 Bologna, Munich attacks; LTTE (Sri Lanka) “You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once” - IRA Bomber The Tactics of Terrorism • Six tactics of terrorism: • • • • • • Bombing (most common) Hijacking Arson Assault Kidnapping Hostage Taking • Weapons of mass destruction? Effects of Terror • • • • • • Economy Each and every individual Irrational in nature Decreases any feeling of security Drains resources Places whole country on alert: • ?overreaction • ?False sense of security or irrelevant Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism • Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their cause; recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their strength • Coercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or government • Intimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from acting • Provocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their cause. • Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit further attacks against the government. Terrorism Is Theatre As stated by Brian Jenkins - terrorism expert - terrorist acts are often deliberately spectacular, designed to rattle and influence a wide audience, beyond the victims of the violence itself. Television and Terrorism: A Cozy Relationship • Over the years, several studies have pointed to the close relationship between terrorism and television • The purpose of television news • News programming provides information, but it is also designed to keep audiences watching • One of the purposes is to keep the audience primed with emotion and excitement • Terrorism is perfect for this scenario because it is so dramatic Television and Terrorism: A Cozy Relationship • Basic elements of television drama • Viewers are encouraged to “stay tuned” • The station provides an expert interpreter • The reports give the illusion that somehow the audience and be in control of the situation The Media as a Force Multiplier • American media and Arab media • America broadcasted its versions of truth both domestically and abroad, and American news has always been selfabsorbed • In the 1990s a new Arab television network, al Jazeera, began broadcasting news from an Arab perspective The Media as a Force Multiplier • Terrorists use the media to reach audiences in a new way • At first, terrorists reached audiences with drama • As time went on, terrorists realized that hostage dramas were made for television • If terrorists could successfully manipulate the situation, they could portray both hostages and themselves as victims while police and military forces appeared to be aggressors The Media as a Force Multiplier • The Internet as a force multiplier • The Internet is one of the most important force multipliers easily available to terrorists • The Internet is a powerful tool for opposition forces in authoritarian regimes • Terrorists run their own websites, sometimes hack into exiting sites to broadcast propaganda videos, and also imbed pixels in legitimate websites to transmit secret communications Security Forces vs. Reporters • Security forces conflicting with the media • Terrorists want to use the media as a psychological weapon, while governments seek to harness the power of the media for social control • Law enforcement and military goals conflict directly with the needs of the media • Officially, police and security forces recognize the media’s right to report information, but they develop elaborate plans to control reporting Security Forces vs. Reporters • Points of views about terrorism and the media • Some members and supporters of the press see the media as a quasiconstitutional force keeping the government in check • Some want to limit press coverage during terrorist events • The media may exploit terrorism, but they rarely convey messages favorable Security Forces vs. Reporters • Terrorist theater • The media is filled with action and it is entertaining • However, research suggests that the coverage of terrorism is not helpful to terrorist groups • Reporting terrorist events increases the public’s knowledge about terrorism, but builds little sympathy for terrorists Does Reporting Make Terrorism Contagious? • The Internet and the contagion effect • Contagion is magnified when rumors are spread through e-mails, and websites • Copycat effect • The greatest proponents of contagion theory argue that media reporting, especially television, leads to a copycat effect • The reason is that media reports encourage people to transform dark thoughts into reality Censorship Debates • Three choices when it comes to freedom of the press and terrorism • To assume a laissez-faire, or hands-off, attitude • Censorship • Self-regulation Terrorism is a Political Act • Creates extreme fear and anxiety in a target group larger than immediate victims • “Extra-normal violence in a symbolic act” • Specific victims have no particular significance to terrorist Terrorism is Not Irrational • Terrorist use logic that links • Goals • Objectives • Strategy States Sponsoring Terrorism Today • • • • • • • Iran Iraq Syria Sudan Libya N. Korea Cuba State Sponsored Terrorism Hizballah receives backing and assistance from the Governments of Iran and Syria. • IRAN shaped Hizballah’s ideology, gave it political backing and helped build its operational capabilities. Iran currently continues to support Hizballah terrorism, by providing it with training and weapons, financial aid and assistance for carrying out terror attacks. • SYRIA supports and trains Hizballah and allows it to build its infrastructure under Syrian auspices. Hizballah is used as a political tool against Israel by the Syrian president. • LEBANON provides a territorial base where Hizballah can freely operate and advance its terrorist infrastructure. State Sponsored Terrorism Hizballah’s Arsenal of Weapons Type of Weapons Quantity Range Target (estimate) Mortars 82 mm 120 mm 160 mm Dozens of mortars, thousands of mortar bombs 3000 m 5700 m 8000 m Israeli towns and cities Rocket Launchers FAJR 3 FAJR 5 Several dozen 43 km 75 km Into the Heart of Israel 107 mm 122 mm Unknown launchers; thousands of rockets 8.3 km Long-range rocket: 20.4 km Short-range rocket: 11 km Dozens 1300 m (est.) military 122 mm 130 mm 155 mm Dozens of guns; Thousands of shells 11.8 km – 24 km 2.75 km 18km Israeli civilians and towns SAGGER Millan Fagot Several hundred missiles of all types 1000-3000 m 300-2000 m 300-2000 m Tanks Recoilless guns Artillery Guns Antitank Missiles Tow Antiaircraft SA-7 14.5 mm 23 mm 57mm A. 600-3750 m B. 1000-3000 m A few of each kind 1.5-1.9 km 2500-600m 3000-1400m 5000-4000m Aircraft Terrorism is a Political Act • A weapon of psychological purposes • Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnation or clandestine agents usually intended to influence an audience Terrorism in the USA • • The first incident of antifederal behavior came shortly after the American Revolutionary War • 1791- The Whiskey Rebellion The Civil War • Southerners were fighting to keep the power of local government • KKK-Purpose: to intimidate supporters of Reconstruction • Abortion Clinics Ecoterrorism in the US • Earth Liberation Front (ELF) • ELF migrated from Europe to the United States • The alliance has been responsible for more than six hundred criminal acts since 1996 • Its tactics include sabotage, tree spiking, property damage, intimidation, and arson Ecoterrorism, Animal Rights, and Genetic Engineering • Ecoterrorism today • Most violence associated with ecoterrorism has taken place in the American West • From 1995-1999, damages total $28.8 million • ELF activities have increased each year since 1999 • Ecoterrorists are uncompromising, illogical extremists just like their right-wing counterparts; They use ecology as a surrogate religion Murrah Federal Building Oklahoma City 25 June 1994 • 168 Dead • 490 Injured Terrorist tactics have been admired in the past… • American Revolution • Was the Boston Tea Party an act of terrorism????? • What about the French Resistance that fought against Germany in WWII? • Russian and Spanish Guerrilla warfare vs. Napoleon???? • Terrorist or Freedom Fighter???? • Are we Terrorists? • Bombing of other countries when they do something we don’t like? • Iraq • Libya • Panama Why Terrorism??? • Terrorism and guerrilla warfare • Ability to compete with “superpowers” • Legitimate form of warfare? • Applicability of “Laws of war” (legitimate nations at a disadvantage?) • Terrorists have advantage of surprise and initiative • What methods may be used to combat terrorist/guerrilla attacks? Advantages and disadvantages of each (loss of innocent life, collateral damage, etc.) Why Terrorism? Because It Works • • • • • The anthrax case: 3 teaspoons worth of anthrax $27,500,000 to clean up Senate Office Building $300,000,000 to clean up postal facilities Two pounds of anthrax would saturate all of Manhattan. • 9/11- 19 Hijackers killed thousands and caused Trillions of dollars in economic damage. Terrorist Profiles: Three Views • Hacker one of first criminal profilers • Hacker’s three types of terrorists: • Criminals • Join terrorist groups for payoff or vengeance • Crazies • Join terrorist groups for thrills of lifestyle • Crusaders • People who believe deeply in a cause Creating Terrorist Organizations • Pyramid Organization: • Support is most common job in terrorist groups • Fraser and Fulton’s hierarchy of terrorist group: • Smallest group at the top is responsible for command • Second level is active cadre—people who carry out organization’s mission • Third level is most important: active supporters • Fourth level is passive supporters; largest group Terrorism Support Base Actual terrorists Active supporters Passive supporters Sympathizers Suicide Terror Attacks are . . . • inexpensive and effective; extremely favorable per-casualty cost benefits for the terrorists • less complicated and compromising – no escape plan needed, and success means no assailant to capture and interrogate • perhaps the ultimate “smart bomb” – this “weapon” can cleverly disguise itself, use various modes of deception, and effect last minute changes in timing, access, and target • a strategic communication device – successful attacks are virtually assured media coverage • effective because the weaker opponent acts as coercer and the stronger actor is the target • Key difference from other attacks: The target of suicide campaign cannot easily adjust to minimize future damage Suicide Terrorism: Where? Three types of attacks are most likely to occur: • High value, symbolic targets involving mass casualties • Important government buildings, installations, or landmarks • Major means of personal or commercial transportation • High value, symbolic targets against specific persons • Political assassinations (e.g., head of state, regional governor, etc.) • Deliberately lethal attacks targeting the public • Bus, train, subway bombings; attacks on shopping malls, cinemas, sports stadiums, public gathering spaces Suicide Terrorism • The use of suicide terrorism as a tactic has changed the nature of terrorism and the war in Iraq. • In most cases, the use of suicide terrorism has tended to improve the success of terrorists and frustrated their more capable, better-resourced enemies (i.e., US, EU) • This analysis is based on Robert Pape’s article in the Aug. 2003 American Political Science Review (vol. 97, no. 3, 343-361) Suicide Terrorism • Suicide terrorism was seldom used but not unknown before 1980 • The 1983 attack on the US Marine barracks in Lebanon was a spectacular early use of this tactic • Since that time its use has risen sharply Suicide Terrorism 2000 2001 2002 2003 2002 2005 2006 Suicide Attacks Against Israel Suicide Attacks Thwarted by Israeli Forces 4 35 60 26 15 5 2 4 56 171 209 367 96 187 Source: Jewish Virtual Library.org Types of Suicide Terrorism • Suicide attack on foot, explosive belt -- numerous Iraq • Attempted suicide attack with a plane as target -- Richard Reid on American Airlines Flight 63 • Suicide car bomb -- numerous Iraq • Suicide attack by a boat with explosives -- USS Cole bombing • Suicide attack by a submarine with explosives (human-steered torpedo) -Kaiten, used by Japan in WWII • Suicide attack by a plane with explosives -- kamikaze • Suicide attack by a hijacked plane with fuel -- 9/11 • Suicide attack by diverting a bus to an abyss -- Tel Aviv Jerusalem bus Massacre • Suicide attack with guns -- Kashmiri insurgents on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 killing 15 people. Profile of Suicide Terrorists • The original descriptions of characteristics of suicide terrorists pointed to depressed, isolated, uneducated, embittered loners carrying out attacks, motivated by a sense of powerlessness • The rising numbers of suicide attacks has made this profile obsolete • Suicide terrorists may be young, middle class, welleducated, female • Religion seems to be a significant motivation in many cases, but not all (e.g., Tamil Tigers, Sri Lanka) 5 Principles of Suicide Terrorism 1. Suicide terrorism is strategic -- Groups announce their goals and cease attacks when those goals are met 2. Designed to coerce modern democracies, usually over territorial claims -- Every suicide terrorist attack since 1980 has been directed against a democratic form of government 3. Suicide terrorism has been rising for the past 25 years because it is often partially successful -- Palestinian management/control: West Bank, Gaza -- Regional autonomy negotiations for Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka -- Limited toleration for Kurdish minority in Turkey 5 Principles of Suicide Terrorism 4. More ambitious, large-scale attacks are unlikely to prove increasingly successful -- Large democratic states have little political incentive to concede when the stakes are very high -- public support 5. The most promising tactic for reducing suicide terrorism is by reducing the terrorists’ confidence in further success -- Border control, increased internal security -- Military action alone is unlikely to create this effect Types of Terrorism • Terrorists have a choice of tactics to use depending on the desire effect Demonstrative Terrorism • • • • Used mainly to gain publicity, recruit activists May announce their action in advance (bomb threat) Destructive Terrorism • • • More aggressive, seeks to coerce enemies Balance between effect of act and the potential to alienate potential sympathizers Suicide Terrorism • • Most aggressive May alienate the terrorists’ own community Types of Terrorism • Two factors related to the news media are crucial • • • • • Projection of an image of being unstoppable Projection of an image of being very numerous Suicide terrorism is an aspect of asymmetrical warfare, where the terrorist organization is weaker than their enemy Their actions are a punishment for not acceding to previous demands Fear is intensified by the credible threat of additional future attacks Selected Suicide Terror Campaigns Terrorist Group Terrorists’ Goals Target Behavior Apr-Dec 1983 Hezbollah US/France out of Lebanon Complete Withdrawal Nov 1983Apr 1985 Hezbollah Israel out of Lebanon Complete withdrawal Apr 1984Dec 2006 Hamas, various Israel out of Palestine Complete withdrawal from Gaza, partial withdrawal from West Bank 1996-2003 Al Qaeda US out of Arabian Peninsula Complete withdrawal 2000- Chechen Rebels Russia out of Chechnya TBD 2003- Al Qaeda, various US out of Iraq TBD Analysis of Religious Terrorism • Religious fanaticism and technology • Terrorists behave differently from regular criminals, religious terrorists behave differently from political terrorists • Religious terrorists are not constrained by the same factors that inhibit other types of terrorists Analysis of Religious Terrorism • Holy Terror vs. Secular Terror • Secular terrorists operate within a dominant political and cultural framework • Secular terrorists would rather make allies than indiscriminately kill their enemies • Holy terrorists see the world as a battlefield between the forces of light and darkness • Holy terrorists see killing as a sacramental act. Examples can be found in: • The Koran • Christian Old Testament • Hebrew Bible Analysis of Religious Terrorism • True believers • Religious terrorists dismiss the religious views of others • When a person becomes a true believer and a religious doctrine sanctions the use of violence, deified terrorism results, that is, the act of terrorism itself is made sacred and holy Analysis of Religious Terrorism • Other dangerous trends in holy terror • Religious terrorists are not utilitarian; that is, they are not a person seeking the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people. Religious terrorist seek the greatest good for themselves • Religious terrorists demonize their enemies; that is, they equate their enemies with the ultimate source of evil The Social Characteristics of Terrorists: Juergensmeyer’s Terror in God’s Mind • Holy warriors • The call to violence is a call to purify the world from the nonbeliever and the incorrect interpreters of tradition in a holy war • Those who do not stand with the holy warrior are evil • If the holy warrior falls, the warrior becomes a martyr for hope; if the holy warrior is successful, it is a victory for the deity After the Sept 11 attacks • The “ clash of civilizations” theory suddenly gained new prominence in the west • Originally put forward by Bernard Lewis, an American historian of the Middle East in 1990. • Expanded and given prominence by Samuel Huntington of Harvard University in an article in Foreign Affairs, later expanded into a book. • Bernard Lewis: Islam “ an ancient rival against our Judeo-Christian heritage”. • Traces the rivalry back to the time of the Islamic invasion of Spain, the western Crusades, the Ottoman invasion of eastern and central Europe, and the European defeat of the Ottomans after WW1. • “The Muslim has suffered succesive stages of defeat….It was too much to endure, and the outbreak of rage against these alien, infidel and incomprehensible forces that subverted his dominance….was inevitable.” • Bernard Lewis’ ideas have influenced important members of the Bush administration, including vice president Cheney • Their assumptions: - Islamic societies are fundamentally anti democratic and repressive. - Islamists are resentful and hate the freedom and liberty they see in the US, and want to destroy it. - If Islam and the west are to live together, Islamic countries need to be democratized and modernised: this is the project in Iraq. Huntington’s thesis • “The fundamental source of conflict..will not be primarily ideological or economic. The great divisions among humankind will be cultural.” • “The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” • He divides the world into seven or eight major civilizations: Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American. • Huntington saw the main source of conflict in the world as being between western and Islamic civilization Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations and Esposito’s Response • • Huntington’s Thesis • International peace will be threatened in “torn countries”. These are regions where more than one civilization exists within an area John Esposito • Disagrees with Huntington on Two Levels: • Culture or civilization is defined by more than religion • There is no Islamic civilization Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations and Esposito’s Response • • Daniel Pipes • When looking at Islam, the major clash is not between civilizations, but rather within Islamic civilization Thomas Barnett • Believes Huntington’s clash comes between economic rather than cultural civilizations Islamic extremists too believe in a clash of civilization • The West and Islam will “constantly be enemies…Islam must win and westerners will be destroyed. But we don’t have to make then enemies if they allow Islam to continue to grow so that in the end they will probably agree to be under Islam. If they refuse to be under Islam there will be chaos. If they want to have peace, they have to accept to be governed by Islam.” Abu-Bakr Bashir, head of Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia. Huntington’s and Lewis’ ideas have been vigorously criticised • Confuses the thinking of a small Islamic fundamentalist fringe, with the majority of Muslims • Does not distinguish between Arab Muslims and non Arab Muslims • Are “civilizations” that distinct and are they based on religion? Know Your Enemy “If you know yourself but do not know your enemy, you will sometimes meet with victory, sometimes with defeat. If you know your enemy but do not know yourself, you will sometimes meet with victory, sometimes with defeat. But if you know yourself and you know your enemy, you will be victorious on a hundred occasions.” Sun-Tsu (The Art of War) “Muslims look forward to death the way Americans look forward to life.” Osama bin Laden (Islamic Terrorist) Global War on Terrorism--Who is the enemy? • The enemy consists of various extremist Islamic groups that espouse the use of violence to achieve their ideological aims – al Qa’ida being the most dangerous. Characteristics are: • No state, no uniform, lives among the population • Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend Islam • Even support by 1% of the Muslim population would equate to over 12 million “enemies” • While we may view his beliefs as dangerously misguided…. • He is absolutely committed to his cause • His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits • He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflict Terms • This briefing refers to “ISLAM” and “ISLAMIC” to refer generally to the broad range of religious, cultural and socio-economic values and assumptions that are shared among the diverse adherents to the Islamic faith. • This briefing refers to “ISLAMISTS” (“Islamic Fundamentalists”, “Fundamentalists”, “Extremists”) ) and requires that these terms be understood to refer to those Islamic extremists who have, by their words and actions, defined themselves as the enemies of all that is NOT in agreement with their view and are currently executing a violent campaign against those who do not share their agenda – primarily the U.S. This term does NOT refer to “all Muslims” nor Muslims of any particular denomination or sect of the broader religion of Islam. It refers ONLY to those Muslim extremists who are engaged in using violent means to expand the influence of their particular view of Islam. Some of these religious, and sociopolitical views are shared among most or even all Muslims. However, those views which have motivated Islamist, Fundamentalist Extremists to violent action are generally shared ONLY by those groups. • “JIHAD” is an Arabic term that is used for any “struggle” INCLUDING warfare. It is frequently interpreted in a religious context as “Holy War” but CAN mean “struggle” as in a struggle to overcome a personal limitation or a “struggle” to understand a new point of view. • “JIHADI” is one who struggles or “fights”. In the context of a religiously inspired “Holy War”, a “Jihadi” is a “Holy Warrior”. Islam Today???? • Islam (modernists, traditionalists and orthodox 80-85%?) • Ancient religion of 1.5 billion people • Diversity of beliefs, practices, and politics • Islamism (salafi Islam, fundamentalism) (15-20%?) • Islam must have political power and a state • Response to European colonialism • Modernism and the turn to Islam • But no unanimity about democracy • Jihadism (salafiyya jihadiyya) (<1%?) • Extremist version of Islamism • No gradual implementation or political process • Only violence can recreate an idealized Islamic state called the “Caliphate” Historical Perspective I • Islam spread very quickly by conversion and by developing empire. • Mohammed was at once a prophet, religious leader, military leader, and government head. • Crusades were a direct attack on this empire that included many lands outside of the Middle East. Focus is on Christian atrocities. Historical Perspective II • Place of Christians and Jews in the early Islamic State and Mohammed's last wishes. • Holy Land is for Muslims only: Arabia, Medina, Mecca • With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire the Caliphate (Islamic Leader) ended (1924). The Al Qaeda Manual I “After the fall of our orthodox caliphates on March 3, 1924 and after expelling the colonialists, our Islamic nation was afflicted with apostate rulers who took over in the Moslem nation. These .rulers turned out to be more infidel and criminal than the colonialists themselves.” Al Qaeda Manual II “Colonialism and its followers, the apostate rulers, then started to openly erect crusader centers, societies, and organizations like Masonic Lodges, Lions and Rotary clubs, and foreign schools. They aimed at producing a wasted generation that pursued everything that is western and produced rulers, ministers, leaders, physicians, engineers, businessmen, politicians, journalists, and information specialists.” Some general things to consider… • Many in the Mid-East see the West as the cause of many of their problems. • We (USA) are now THE representative of the West. • Even though the Mid-East is rich in oil, the average person is not rich. Many dictators and kings have become rich while their people have suffered. Guess who helped to put many of these people into power??? • These monarchs and dictators have used brutality and violence to keep their own people in line. • Education is very limited. Even those that are educated are not allowed/encouraged free thought. (Women) • Even educated men have a hard time finding jobs in many Mid-Eastern countries. Lack of economic opportunities leads to anger. • Many religious schools teach students to recite the Koran, but not what it means. (Arabic) • Many view themselves as Muslim first, a citizen of their country second! • Islam is a multinational and multiracial religion. Only a small minority of Muslims are Arab. • Radicals like bin Laden and others see this as a holy war, a literal battle for world domination. Many radicals have the attitude “convert, or die.” • People like bin Laden represent a small, but growing, minority of the 1 billion worldwide Muslims. “Problems” with Islam today • • • • • No “Church” hierarchy. (Pope) No official Islamic Doctrine Teachings based on various Imam’s. Some very radical. Much illiteracy. Since most Muslims aren’t Arab, and the word of God is only revealed in Arabic, it makes sense that most Muslims don’t know what the Koran says. Therefore they rely on the interpretation of the imams. • “Every Muslim who passes away without a gun in his hand faces Allah with the sins of abandoning fight… I strongly believe that there is no difference between who does not fight , and he who does not fast, pray or pay zakat (tithe). I believe no Muslim is excused from abandoning Jihad.” Shaykh Azzam Worldview • Jewish Conspiracy • Banking • Influence/Pulling the strings • US World Position • Leader and therefore responsible regardless of proof • Support of Israel • The Final Proof (How many Arab countries have accepted the right of Israel to exist at all?) Globalization • Forcing a secular western culture on a traditional Islamic culture • Extolling: music, morals, sex, values and materialism • Importing to them low paying jobs. The Impact of Islamist World’s Economics* & Socio-demographics* • The Appeal to A Dangerous Socio-Political Element • • • The Poor The Politically Disenfranchised The Youth Bulge The Corrupted and Apostate Rich The Virtuous Poor * TP525-2-60, pp 30, 36 Role of Islam in Society • “In the Islamic system of values and from the point of view of Muslim fundamentalists, religion cannot be separated from any aspect of life.” • “Religion is omnipresent in every aspect of a Muslim individual's private and social life from the economy to social relations.” • “What does harm to the society is not religion - it is the way in which some of the rulers take advantage of religion” DR MEHDI KHAZALI, Iranian cleric Understanding Islam Islam Role of religion for the believer Christian West The defining An expression of doctrine regulating private personal all aspects of belief. personal behavior, family, political and economic life. Understanding Islam Islam View of The world consists government of one true faith divided into nations (Lewis, xx). There is no meaningful difference between political and religious communities. Christian West Dualism -- The world is split into two spheres, political (secular) and religious. Since the Enlightenment: religion should not be too prominent in politics. Understanding Islam View of religion Islam Christian West The Qur’an is a single book written by one man. There are no rituals, sacraments or ordinations that can only be performed by priests -- no mediation between man an God. The Bible is the work of numerous men over a considerable time. There is a religious caste (priests) who either mediate for believers or perform certain holy rites. The Church is an institution that preserves the dogma of the faith. Understanding Islam View of society Islam Christian West There is a polity that carries out the necessary functions of civic life, but it is also founded on principles derived from the Qur’an. This mirrors the practice of Muhammad, who was both a prophet and a political leader, merging “two traditions, the one authoritarian and quietest, the other radical and activist.” (Lewis, 11) Society is a broad community of people in voluntary association who pursue common interests, preserve common ways of life and belief. Religion is only one of many factors that bind people together; numerous social substructures also support and nourish civic life. Understanding Islam View of the individual Islam Christian West The individual is bound by a strict duty to observe religious law, participate in the great evangelistic work of the faith, and defend the honor of Muhammad, the Muslim faith and all those who profess them. Individuals may choose to bind themselves to a religious faith, or to no religion at all. Individuals should respect each other’s rights. “…most Muslim countries are still profoundly Muslim in a way and in a sense that most Christian countries are no longer Christian.” (Lewis, 16) What is Islamism? • Literalism of Qur’an to all of society • Islamic world decline due to loss of religious observance and caliphate • Moral and religious law enforcement • “Islamic state” • Western culture breeds materialism, atheism, selfishness, and decadence • Separate from the west • State of Israel is illegitimate and should be removed • All Muslims should enroll in jihad to achieve these goals. • Glorify martyrdom Islamist Perceptions & Motivations…? • How would YOU feel if this was Kansas City, MO.? Baghdad, April 2003 Baghdad, April 2003 • How would YOU feel if this was Cincinnati, OH? • Are Islamist Motivations Different From Ours…? Madrassas/Wahhabism • Wahhabi: 1750’s reformer to an earlier “purer” Islam. Embraced and propagated by Saudi Arabia today in their education system home and abroad. Saudi Arabia Academy in Alexandria, VA. • Unity of Religion, Government, Military • Examples: Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan • Strong Fundamentalist Movements Jihad • Means “Struggle.” • Jihad of the heart/soul is an inner struggle of good against evil in the mind. • Jihad by the tongue is a struggle of good against evil waged by writing and speech. • Jihad by the pen and knowledge is a struggle for good against evil through scholarly study of Islam. • Jihad by the hand refers to a struggle of good against evil waged by actions or with one's wealth, such as going on the Hajj pilgrimage (seen as the best jihad for women), taking care of elderly parents, or political activity for furthering the cause of Islam. • Jihad by the sword refers to qital fi sabilillah (armed fighting in the way of God, or holy war), the most common usage by Salafi Muslims and offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood. • 5 Kinds of Jihad, but we mostly only hear about the last! Joining the Jihad: The conventional wisdom • Do ideas cause people to join the jihad? • People join terrorist organizations because they are: • • • • • • • • • • • Poor Broken family background Ignorant (uneducated) Immature young men No skills No family or job responsibility Weak minds, vulnerable to brainwashing (madrassas, family or direct appeal) Mentally ill Criminals Religious fanatics Evil Joining the Jihad: The evidence • Based on 400 subjects: • 2/3 from solid upper or middle class background • Vast majority from intact caring family • 60% had some college education • Average age was 26 years • 3/4 were professional or semi-professional • 3/4 were married & most had children • Half were religious children, only 13% were madrassa educated • Only 1% had thought disorder (global base rate). Very little evidence of personality disorder. • Only European 2nd generation, immigrants & converts were petty criminal • The vast majority was not religious in early adulthood. Joining the jihad: What really counts • Alienated from society • 70% expatriates • 10% excluded second generation or immigrants • Pre-existing social bonds • Friendship: 68% “bunch of guys” making alienated young Muslims into fanatics joining together • Kinship: 20% • Worship: 10% • Discipleship: 8% • Bottom up activity: no top down recruitment program Becoming an Islamist terrorist • • • • • • • • Upwardly & geographically mobile people Mostly from religious caring & middle class families International people, conversant in 3 or 4 languages Skilled in computer technology Separated from traditional bonds & culture Homesick, lonely, marginalized sought new friends Drifted to mosques for companionship, not religion Moved in together, formed cliques (“Bunch of Guys”) Inside The Jihadi Mind The Motivation of the Individual Jihadi • Various and Complex • • • Nothing to Lose Religious Duty Only Guarantee of Paradise The Brutal Present The Idyllic Future Goals of Islamists and Jihadists Objective 1: Expel America and Establish an Islamic Authority in Iraq Attacks against the West Continue • America departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi capacity to provide security. • Insurgents step up attacks against the government and make religious claims for regime change. • Extremists overthrow the democratic government of Iraq and replace it with a Taliban-like regime. • United Nations issues a resolution, but does not commit to action. • United States does not re-enter the conflict 94 Extremists now have an Emirate in Iraq that serves as a base of operations from which they can revive the Caliphate. Objective 2: Extend the Jihad Wave to Neighboring Countries Attacks against the West Continue Would Israel join the conflict? • Extremists export their message and terrorist acts throughout the middle east. • Violence and extremist ideology undermine governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt. • Moderate governments collapse; Taliban-like regimes take their place. • Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate. Would the U.S. re-enter the conflict? 95 The revived Caliphate now turns its attention to the destruction of Israel Objective 3: Destroy Israel Might nuclear weapons be employed? Attacks against the West continue At what point does the U.S. return to Middle East? Allies? • • • • Attacks against Israel intensify. United Nations issues resolution to stand down. Caliphate gains support within the Muslim world Caliphate attacks Israel 96 Extremists now poised to re-establish the historical Caliphate Objective 4: Establish the historical Caliphate • The Caliphate calls for an uprising within the remaining Islamic states to join the restoration. • Remaining Islamic states collapse from within. This would require the defeat of the U. S.; how could that happen? Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort. If they win in Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror Significant militant Islamist attacks against Americans What was our response? • We ‘proved’ to the Middle East that we are weak. • This, along with the defeat of the USSR in Afghanistan led to the rise of Al Qaeda. • OBL considers America a “paper tiger” that “would after a few blows run in defeat.” (TOEE, 149.) • OBL is quoted as saying that the Marine withdraw from Beirut signaled the “decline of the American government and the weakness of the American soldier who is ready to wage cold wars and unprepared to fight long wars.” What is Al-Qaeda? • Osama bin Laden led organization of radical Islamic terrorists • Wahhabi sect of Islam • Founded during Afghan resistance to USSR • Funded in part by the US • US support of Saudis and US troops in Saudi Arabia in Gulf War turned him against US • Attacked US Embassies, USS Cole, 9/11 and more Al Qaeda's World View (1) • Islam in mortal danger from the West; jihad a duty • Recent events confirm al Qaeda's interpretation-Americans are the new Mongols: • U.S. troops still in Saudi Arabia • U.S. remains in Afghanistan • U.S. establishing bases in the Middle East, Gulf, Central and South Asia • Pakistan, America's puppet, has abandoned true path to join the oppressors Al Qaeda's World View (2) • U.S. occupies Iraq, threatens Syria, Iran • Palestine occupied--supported Zionists • Western corruption threatens Muslim souls • Jihad is the antidote • U.S. is thus a threat and an opportunity--hostile to Islam, supports local tyrants, but also provides common enemy and basis for unity • Action will awaken, demonstrate, instruct, inspire, bring about spiritual revival, foster unity • A powerful message whose appeal thrives on failure, humiliation, and anger Introduction to Al Qaeda Thought • 12-12-2001 statement (Ayman al-Zawahiri) • “The need to inflict the maximum casualties against the opponent, for this is the language understood by the West, no matter how much time and effort such operations take.” • “Tracking down the Americans and Jews is not impossible. Killing them with a single bullet, a stab, or a device made up of a popular mix of explosives, or hitting them with an iron rod is not impossible. Burning down their property with Molotov cocktails is not difficult. With the available means, small groups could prove to be a frightening horror for the Americans and Jews.” “The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim.” World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998 Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders This is in accordance with the words of Almighty Allah, "and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together," and "fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in Allah." World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998 Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders Past Terrorist Attacks by Al Qaeda February 26, 1993 New York City, New York World Trade Center Bombing Kuwaiti man, Ramzi Yousef, and at least three other men planted a “car” bomb in the garage of the World Trade Center, hoping that the blast would topple one tower into the other as well as spread cyanide gas across town killing thousands. Ramzi Yousef • “After being captured in Pakistan, he was flown into Stewart Airport in Newburgh, New York, and then transferred to an FBI helicopter for the trip to the Metropolitan Correctional Center next to Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan. ‘Two huge guys carried him off the plane, shackled and blindfolded…’ ‘After we got airborne and were flying down the Hudson River, one of the SWAT guys asks me, ‘Can we take off his blindfold?’ It took Yousef a minute to focus his eyes. Ironically, the helicopter was alongside the World Trade Center. The SWAT guy gives him a nudge and says, ‘You see, it’s still standing.’ And Yousef says, ‘It wouldn’t be if we had more money.’” (The Looming Tower, pg. 357. Emphasis Added) 1993 WTC Bombing Rationale: Leader of a terrorist cell heeding the call of Jihad on the U.S. Result: 6 people dead, 1000 injured, Towers stayed upright and the cyanide gas evaporated in the heat of the explosion. Ramzi Yousef was sentenced to life in prison on January 8, 1998 Past Terrorist Attacks… August 7, 1998 Kenya and Tanzania American Embassy Bombings Suicide bomb attacks at two different embassies hundreds of miles apart, but within minutes of each other. First recognized acts of Al Qaeda, a network of terrorists led and supported by Osama bin Laden, a Saudi Arabian millionaire. Embassy Bombings Rationale: Response to a call for Jihad on the U.S. Result: 12 people dead, 224 injured Osama bin Laden became a recognized name and hit the FBI’s Top Ten Most Wanted Men Past Terrorist Attacks… October 12, 2000 Yemen naval port Bombing of the U.S.S. Cole Two men, later linked to Al Qaeda, sailed a small boat full of explosives next to the U.S.S. Cole, detonating the bomb. Leaving a 20 x 40 foot hole in the side of the ship. Rationale: Goal was to sink the ship and lower U.S. morale Result: 17 sailors dead, 39 injured No one has been held accountable, added to the list of grievances against and crimes of Osama bin Laden 1. The Events of 9/11 1. The Events of 9/11 On a beautiful, clear day in September . . . • Four planes hijacked; three flown into office buildings in NYC and DC • NYC attacks (2nd plane crash) shown on live television; American attention riveted; other tv shows replaced by 9/11 coverage • All airplanes grounded; schools closed; sports cancelled • WTC towers collapse, shown on live television • Close coverage of whereabouts of Pres. Bush, other national leaders • Lots of commentary and questions; few informed answers; lots of emotion, Congressional Representatives spontaneously singing patriotic songs on the steps of Capitol Hill AB95-5.PPT // ## 2. The Psychological Impact of 9/11 2. The Psychological Impact Post Traumatic Stress Disorder • Individuals who have been exposed to a traumatic event may experience at least one recurrent symptom related to the event (such as intrusive, repeated recollections or dreams of the event) • Persistently avoids people, activities or places associated with the event • Cannot recall important aspects of the trauma • Shows disinterest in their usual daily activities and a sense of foreboding about the future • Hyper arousal (difficulty in falling or staying asleep, outbursts of anger, hyper vigilance, an inability to concentrate, or exaggerated startle responses) • May lead to significant impairment in social, occupational or other important areas of the individual’s life AB95-5.PPT // ## 2. The Psychological Impact Common Themes in the Research on 9/11 Psychological Impact • Living closer to the attack scene, direct personal loss, and children were more likely to exhibit symptoms of PTSD • Sadness was the most frequent reaction among New Yorkers, followed by anxiety and fear • Almost 20% of Americans across the country reported symptoms of distress • constant news coverage, replays of video footage showing the second plane hitting the World Trade Center, helped all Americans feel closer to the event • Americans did not withdraw from others • Stress and uncertainty produces social behaviors: people seek out others, perhaps to enhance social support, or to help to affirm one’s cultural view of the world and the threat (Brandon & Silke) • Increased participation in religious services, memorials, vigils AB95-5.PPT // ## 3. The Economic Impact of 9/11 3. The Economic Impact Confusion/Disagreement on Total Economic Impact • NY City Economic Impact • “Total Loss $83 billion” (NYC partnership & Chamber of Commerce: Nov 2001) • “Total Cost $54 billion” (NY Governor: Oct 2001) • “WTC Replacement Cost & Cleanup $25~29 billion” (FEB NY: April 2002) • “Total Cost $83 billion (quoting NYCP-COC) but $67 billion covered by Insurance (US GAO: May 2002) • NY State Jobs Lost • • • “99,000 in 2001, 78,000 in 2002, 77,000 in 2003” (NYS Senate Finance Committee: DRI-WEFA: January 2002) “Resulted at peak loss of 78,200” (DRI-WEFA: March 2002) “50,000 immediately, 70,000 in 4th Quarter” “Much of this loss is likely linked to WTC attack” (FEB NY: April 2002) • NY City Jobs Lost • 108,500, 115,300, 105,200, 125,000, 84,000, 78,200, 129,000…. AB95-5.PPT // ## 3. The Economic Impact Immediate and Short-Term Economic Impacts • Financial Sector • 40% of WTC casualties • NYSE, NYME closed • Aviation Sector • planes grounded for a week or more • 20% drop in passengers • 100,000 jobs lost; several airlines went bankrupt • Insurance Sector • loss of life and property estimated at $40-$50 billion AB95-5.PPT // ## 3. The Economic Impact Immediate and Short-Term Economic Impacts • Other industries were also badly affected, such as hotels, tourism, automobile rentals, travel agents, and civilian aircraft manufactures. • Hotels reported higher vacancy rates and employment in the sector as a whole fell by 58,000 (about 3%) in October and November, 2001 • Nearly 18,000 businesses were dislocated, disrupted or destroyed by the attacks • Also, over 300 firefighters and nearly 100 policeman were killed while trying to evacuate the World Trade Center before it collapsed AB95-5.PPT // ## 3. The Economic Impact Longer-Term Economic Impacts • Federal Reserve cut interest rates aggressively • Special financing incentives offered by the automobile companies led to record motor vehicle sales for October 2001 • Securities market was only closed for four days, opening again after the telecommunications network in lower Manhattan became operational. • Stock market re-opened on September 17th; within 19 trading days, the S&P 500 index had bounced back to its pre-September 11th level AB95-5.PPT // ## 3. The Economic Impact Longer-Term Economic Impacts • New York City lost a significant amount of its office space and a number of businesses ceased to exist. • Close to 200,000 jobs were destroyed or relocated to other cities • 34.5 million square feet of office space lost AB95-5.PPT // ## 3. The Economic Impact Longer-Term Economic Impacts • City-wide impact; airports and midtown hotels not just south of Canal Street • Low-income workers bore the brunt (60%) • People of color and immigrants (56%) hard hit • Chinatown, “economic ground zero”, and other poor communities heavily affected • Insurance costs have risen on average 33% since 2001 • Diversion of resources and capacity toward security-related products and services • Short-term direct impacts were not as significant as the financial costs of the longterm response that is still underway AB95-5.PPT // ## 3. The Economic Impact Bottom Line • 9/11 events inflicted severe and immediate physical impacts to all businesses, government offices, and other organizations located in and around the WTC complex. • This event involved dead, injured, missing, physically displaced and traumatized employees, losses of data, information, and institutional knowledge, and an unprecedented uncertainty in market behavior AB95-5.PPT // ## Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds • December 7, 1941 • The purpose of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was to destroy U.S. military capabilities in the Pacific Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds • September 11, 2001 • The 9-11 attacks were designed for drama. They were a tragedy performed on a subnational level, with the purpose of murdering thousands of people to create an aura of fear • The goal of the September 11 terrorists was not one of conventional military strategy. Its purpose was to create so much feat that Western institutions would change their behavior • The terrorists of September 11 were attacking globalization while America was defending state power Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two Different Worlds • The new style of conflict • Jihadists are not attacking state power; they are attacking the idea of Western, and particularly American culture • Modern terrorism is aimed at the infrastructure of everyday life and the symbols that define that structure 2004 – Spain Commuter March 11, 2004 Trains • • Three days before national elections, 10 bombs were detonated on crowded commuter trains during rush hour. Three were deactivated by security forces and one was found unexploded. • Evidence quickly surfaced that jihadist terrorists with possible ties to the al Qaeda network were responsible for the attack that killed 191 people. Madrid London – July 2005 • The 7 July 2005 London bombings were a series of coordinated bomb blasts that struck London's public transport system during the morning rush hour. • At 8:50 a.m. three bombs exploded within 50 seconds of each other on three London Underground trains. • A fourth bomb exploded on a bus nearly an hour later. • 56 people, including the 4 bombers, were killed • About 700 people were injured August 2006 - England • Great Britain arrested more than 20 individuals • Plotting to detonate liquid explosives aboard flights from the United Kingdom to the United States. • They planned to bring the components of their explosives on board in their carry-on luggage, disguised as bottled drinks and electronic devices. July 2007 - England • Failed terrorist attempts (car bombings) in Glasgow and London • Eight have links with the British National Health Service. The BBC indicated that seven are doctors, medical students and a laboratory technician. • The eight people who have been arrested in Australia, England and Scotland all worked in National Health Hospitals. Why? The 1998 “Fatwa” Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders • 1. 2. 3. The fatwa lists three "crimes and sins" committed by the Americans: U.S. military occupation of the Arabian Peninsula. U.S. aggression against the Iraqi people. U.S. support of Israel 1. U.S. Military Occupation of the Arabian Peninsula. • “First, for over seven years the United States has been occupying the lands of Islam in the holiest of places, the Arabian Peninsula, plundering its riches, dictating to its rulers, humiliating its people, terrorizing its neighbors, and turning its bases in the Peninsula into a spearhead through which to fight the neighboring Muslim peoples. “ • “If some people have in the past argued about the fact of the occupation, all the people of the Peninsula have now acknowledged it. The best proof of this is the Americans' continuing aggression against the Iraqi people using the Peninsula as a staging post, even though all its rulers are against their territories being used to that end, but they are helpless.” • -1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998 2. U.S. Aggression Against the Iraqi People. • “Second, despite the great devastation inflicted on the Iraqi people by the crusader-Zionist alliance, and despite the huge number of those killed, which has exceeded 1 million... despite all this, the Americans are once against trying to repeat the horrific massacres, as though they are not content with the protracted blockade imposed after the ferocious war or the fragmentation and devastation.” • -1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998 3. US Support of Israel • “Third, if the Americans' aims behind these wars are religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews' petty state and divert attention from its occupation of Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there. The best proof of this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion and weakness to guarantee Israel's survival and the continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the Peninsula.” • -1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998 The Expansion of Israel Why study Bin Laden? • OSB is responsible for multiple attacks on US targets at home and abroad • OSB is not the leader of all Islamic extremists, but he has become an inspiration to many of them • OSB has given us many concise statements as to his grievances • OSB wants to kill YOU!!!!! • He is more dangerous that most countries. If they attack we know where to get them, not so for OBL Main Themes of Bin Laden’s Rhetoric 1. The United States is the main enemy of Islam. 2. Islam has been betrayed from within by Muslim governments who have been corrupted. 3. The Jihad is self defense! 4. Bin Laden is a motivator of all Muslims, not their leader. 5. All weapons are on the table. -Taken from Through Our Enemies Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and the Future of America, Osama bin Laden • Saudi born • One of 52 Sons and Daughters fathered by Mohammed bin Laden with 22 different wives. (Wright, The Looming Tower, 82) • Heir to bin Laden construction company • Westernized until his teens Bin Laden’s war: the beginnings… • 1979-Soviet forces arrive in Afghanistan to support communist forces who had taken power in a coup a year earlier. • Resistance against the Soviet forces soon became a “ jihad”, a holy struggle to evict an atheist invader from a Muslim country • Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were the largest backers of this jihad. The Saudi’s provided the funds, and Pakistan provided the training camps. Thousands of youth from across the Muslim world flocked to join this “ jihad” • Among them was Osama Bin Laden, the son of a wealthy construction industry businessman. • Bin Laden, born in 1957, was the 17th of his father’s 57 children. He studied business administration and then Islamic studies at King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah. • Bin Laden’s father was one of many who provided funds for the Afghan mujahideen, and Bin Laden began visiting the area in 1980. • By 1982, he settled down in Peshawar, Pakistan, the main centre for the Afghan mujahideen. He brought in engineers from his company, and built roads and other buildings for the fighters The CIA’s role • By the early 1980, the CIA had begun funding and arming the mujahideen against the Soviet Union. • The CIA, with the help of the Pakistani intelligence services and Saudi money, set up training camps, poured large amounts of money and weapons into the region. • In 1986, his company built a huge CIA financed underground tunnel and storage complex for the mujahideen • Between 1982 and 1992 an estimated 35,000 young Muslims from all over the world were trained in these camps. • “ I settled in Pakistan in the Afghan border region. There I received volunteers who came from the Saudi kingdom and all over the Arab and Muslim countries. I set up my first camp where these volunteers were trained by American and Pakistani officers. The weapons were supplied by the Americans, the money by the Saudis.” Osama bin Laden in an interview to AFP, 27 August 1998 • 1989, Bin Laden forms his own group, known as Al Qaeda, or “the base”. Using his own money,as well as money from Saudi Arabia, the organisation grows, and attracts Arab militants • In 1990, after the Soviet withdrawal, Bin Laden returns to Saudi Arabia and works in the family business. He also sets up a welfare organisation for Arab veterans of the Afghan war. • Most importantly, OBL returned home “with an address book containing the names of everybody who was anybody in Islamic activism and guerrilla warfare in his pocket. (TOEE, 117.) • In 1991, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait Bin Laden wanted the Saudi royal family to create a force of Afghan war veterans to fight Saddam. Instead, the Saudis allowed US forces to be based in Saudi Arabia • Bin Laden was furious about US troops would be based so closed to the sacred sites of Mecca and Medina. He criticized the Saudi royal family for allowing non Muslims to be based in the country. • His view is widely accepted in the Arab world. • “Never has Islam suffered a greater disaster than this invasion.” OBL • The Saudi royal family revokes Bin Laden’s citizenship Bin Laden in Sudan and Afghanistan • 1992, Bin Laden moves to Sudan, where he helps an Islamic revolution under Hassan Turabi. • He uses his money to fund Islamic militants and gets together more Arab veterans from Afghanistan and runs construction projects. • OBL funds Muslim fighters in Somalia and sends at least 250 of his own men to aid in the fight against the US. • Somali’s “received some expert guidance [on the use of rocket propelled grenades] from Islamic soldiers smuggled in form Sudan, who had experience fighting Russian helicopters in Afghanistan.” (Mark Bowen, Black Hawk Down) • By now, he has begun the attract the attention of the US as a financier of terrorist organisations • Saudi Arabia and the US put pressure on Sudan to give Bin Laden up. He leaves for Afghanistan in 1996, where he is welcomed by the Taliban • 1998 Bin Laden issues a call for jihad against the US in the middle east • By 1999 he is on FBI’s 10 Most Wanted List Did Bush and Clinton drop the ball? • We had many chances to kill OBL in the 1990’s, but chose not to. • February 2001, the director of the CIA told Congress that OBL was the US’s “top national security threat.” • Some Bush insiders say that Bush was only concerned with Iraq and Iran and never paid any attention to the threat posed by OBL and other terrorists. • August 6, 2001- President Bush received a briefing entitled “Bin Laden determined to strike in US.” • “Even by the standards of the terrorist involved, the scale of assault [on September 11, 2001] was unimaginable. The point, though, is that we didn’t even try to find out what was headed our way.” – Robert Baer, See No Evil. Character Traits of Bin Laden From Through Our Enemies’ Eyes • Personal Responsibility- He truly feels he is doing his job by waging Jihad against America. • Piety- OBL is a devout Muslim. Gave up a life of riches to live with commoners and wage jihad against us. • Professionalism- Businesslike in running Al Qaeda. His looks make us think he is an uneducated, anti-modern, crazy man, when this is the exact opposite. • Courageous- Wounded at least twice fighting in Afghanistan Did the CIA, FBI and NSA drop the ball? • In the early 90’s the FBI “regarded terrorism as a nuisance, not a threat.”(The Looming Tower, 4.) • As of the mid 1990’s, only 8 FBI agents in the entire country spoke Arabic. (The Looming Tower, 309.) • FBI Director Louis Freeh “repeatedly stressed in White House meetings that al-Qaeda posed no domestic threat.” (The Looming Tower, 336.) • Though the NSA was able to monitor the satellite phones of bin Laden and Al Zawahiri, they refused to share the information with the FBI or CIA. (The Looming Tower, 321.) How is OBL viewed today? Muslims • Many throughout the world, not just Muslims, respect OBL because he has not backed down. • He has become one of the great warriors in the history of Islam. • “Wherever Muslims are in trouble, it seems, Usama Bin Laden will be there, slaying enemies, real or perceived. A modern nightmare really- a big screen villain, a free-lancer with the resources of a state, but without all the nasty obligations.” (John Miller as quoted in TOEE, 189.) The West • “The West has pretty much decided that bin Laden is a serious threat only because he is a trigger-happy nut, psychopath, or violence prone youngster who never grew up.” TOEE, p. 300 Excerpt from Through Our Enemies Eyes, pg. 196. • “Bin Laden, however has no fixed address. When American military might comes calling the odds are Bin Lade, like Muhammad Ali, will float like a Muslim butterfly and live to sting another day like the prophet’s bee. All this is to say that it is counterintuitive for Hizballah and Iran- and Sudan and Iraq, for that matter- to deliberately put their heads on the chopping block with al Qaeda whey they derive the same benefit by doing nothing. Al Qaeda already has killed Americans, embarrassed Washington by forcing U.S. leaders into a war of words with a Saudi they cannot find, increased anti-Americanism among Muslims, caused the United States to spend $1.4 billion for security upgrades for its embassies and double its counterterrorism budget in five years, and put US forces in Saudi Arabia into isolated desert cantonments at a prolonged and enervating state of alert. All this is in the interest of Hizballah and Iran and, to date, they have benefited at no cost to themselves.” Bin Laden is not crazy! • Americans feel we are right and do not see ourselves as a threat. • When someone doesn’t like us or our policies, we consider that they must be demented. • Bin Laden’s public statements have been clear, concise and logical. • In other words, he has basically told us what he will do (not specifically) and why. • Yet we continue to ignore his threats! What our government doesn’t tell us! • • • • • Why did bin Laden attack us? Many times, government officials say that bin Laden attacked us because of who we are, how we live and what we believe in. “Americans are asking, why do they hate us? They hate what we see right here in this chamber -- a democratically elected government. Their leaders are selfappointed. They hate our freedoms -our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.” President Bush, September 20, 2001 This is a blatant lie. Bin Laden attacked us for what we have done, not who we are. • “Most important, his words leave no room to doubt that Americans are being attacked for what they do in the Islamic world, not for how they think, live or govern themselves.”Scheuer, TOEE, pg. x. • “The focused and lethal threat…(comes) from their plausible perception that the things they love and value- God, Islam, their brethren, and Muslim lands are being attacked by America.” Scheuer, IH, 9. Bin Laden’s threat. • Even though most of us had never heard of OBL before 9/11/01, the CIA, FBI, and many other government agencies were aware of him and his threat. • Besides 9/11, OBL has been behind many attacks on US interests throughout the world. • “In response, the United States never seemed to take bin Laden too seriously, let alone accept the fact that our nation was in the path of real danger.” (Scheuer, xvii.) • “If he had the wherewithal to kill Americans and attack U.S. targets he would do so, but he doesn’t…..He’s serious about wanting to kill Americans, but as long as he’s in Afghanistan, as long as he doesn’t have access to a cell phone,…. His ability to plan and conduct terrorist operations is extremely limited.” Anonymous US official, 1999. • He is responsible for attacks on US interests all over the world. We are the enemy! • The Christian West is Islam’s main enemy. • We are the leader of an unholy alliance that includes many European countries, India, China, etc. • “Bin Laden portrays Americans and their allies as inhuman creatures that thirst for Muslim blood, delight in gore, and aim to annihilate the Islamic world.” (Scheuer, 47) • Calls “us” “Crusaders.” Trying to rekindle Muslim memory of Crusades in the Middle Ages. • The Islamic world, just like 1,000 years ago “stands at a critical juncture in history, threatened by a phased plan by the JudeoChristian conspiracy… to gradually de-Islamicize and occupy the Muslim holy places in the Arabian Peninsula.”- Professor Manstorp. • According to OBL and others, there is no difference between you and a US Soldier. • “The [Americans] are a people whose president becomes more popular when he kills innocent people… If the majority of people support their dissolute president, this means the American people are fighting us and we have a right to target them.” OBL, 1999. The Enemies from Within! • “The US is increasing its presence in • Bin Laden sees the Saudi Arabian Arab countries in order to capture its government, and others as “criminal oil reserves…..We [the Islamic World] despots who betrayed God and his are suffering a daily loss of one prophet, and betrayed their trust and their hundred and fifteen dollars per nation.” barrel… During the last 13 years the • Saudi Arabia is Bin Laden’s biggest US has cost us a loss of eleven target because they allow the US to have hundred billion dollars… The US buys military bases in the “Land of the Two cheap oil from us and then sells us its Holy Places.” own tanks and aircraft with the threat • Saudi Arabian government is nothing of Israel.” OBL, 1997 interview with more than a “branch or agent of the US” Pakistan to OBL. • “The overwhelming evidence is that • OBL has said that Saudi Arabia’s oil the majority of our terrorist enemies policy is a “economic hemorrhage.” come from purportedly friendly • If the United States is beheaded, the Arab countries, and their main grievance Kingdoms will wither away.” OBL against us is that, in their eyes, we are responsible for maintaining the tyrannical regimes that rule over them.” Scheuer, IH, pg. 11. Self Defense • OBL sees “Islam and the Muslim world are being attacked by a more modern, powerful, and predatory version of the medieval Catholic Crusaders” (Scheuer, 54) • Therefore it is every Muslim’s duty to fight to defend their religion and culture. (Total War) • According to OBL it is the duty of every Muslim “to kill Americans and destroy or steal their property and money.” (Scheuer, 60) Familiar??????? Inspiration • Bin laden has continually stated that he is not a worldwide Islamic leader. • His duty, and Al-Qaeda’s is to support “anyone who carries out military action against the Americans.” • “We seek to instigate the nation (Muslims) to get up and liberate its land, fight for the sake of God, and to make Islamic law the highest law, and the word of God the highest word of all.”- OBL • “If the instigation for jihad against the Jews and Americans in order to liberate Al-Asqa mosque, and the Holy Ka’aba, is considered a crime, then let history witness that I am a criminal.” OBL • “It is our duty to lead people to the light…” OBL All’s Fair! • • • • • • • • Bin Laden is looking for a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon (CBRN). “I would say that acquiring (CBRN) weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.” OBL “Bin Laden is not interested in using a CBRN weapon to terrorize his foes; he is seeking a first strike capability.” (Scheuer, 72.) Killing Muslim civilians is an unfortunate, but acceptable effect of using a CBRN against the Crusaders. “Killing them with a single bullet, a stab, or device made up of a popular mix of explosives or hitting them with an iron rod is not impossible. Burning down their property with Molotov cocktails is not difficult. With the available mean, small groups could prove to be a frightening horror for the Americans and the Jews.Ayamen Zawahiri “Osama bin Laden sees heroin as a powerful new weapon in his war against the West that is capable of wreaking social havoc while generating huge profits.” Washington Times, 1998. OBL sees our dropping of atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as “examples of America’s disregard for human life.” (Scheuer, 49.) “Did the U.S. forget….. what it did to the residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki…?”- OBL Bin Laden’s Followers • “Why are many young people…willing to kill themselves to strike America?”- David P. Baugh, defense attorney for African Embassy bomber. • Because they believe in bin Laden and they agree with his message the Islam is under attack by the West. • They too see American as the “Evil Empire.” • “Bin Laden has become a pan-Arab hero because the Arab and Muslim peoples are yearning to any voice that says no to the United States.”- Muntasir al-Zayyat Strategy and Recruitment • Recruitment and propaganda efforts • Video and audio tapes, CD-Roms, DVDs and the Internet • Key themes of al Qaeda recruitment: • • • • The West is implacably hostile to Islam Only language the West understands is violence Jihad is the only option 9/11 was a tremendous victory (U.S. economy was destroyed and the course of history was changed) • U.S. is a paper tiger on the verge of financial ruin and total collapse • “Patience and steadfastness” are required Strategy and Training Lessons for new recruits include: • education in explosives and detonators: how to assemble bombs (e.g., TNT, C4), mines and grenades, pressure and trip wire booby traps, and the basic knowledge of electrical engineering • how to mount rocket launchers in the beds of pickup trucks • how and where to launder money • how to successfully conduct a kidnapping • how to conduct target identification, surveillance and reconnaissance • how and where to build camouflage-covered trenches • how to covertly communicate with other members of a group or network • how to fire handguns, machine guns and rocket propelled grenade launchers Strategy and Training Lessons for new recruits include: • the rudiments of chemical and biological warfare • field command and escape tactics • marksmanship and camouflage • the use and employment of Soviet rocket-propelled grenades and shoulder borne STRELA missiles • sniper rifle skills; how to fine-tune a rifle sight at short range to ensure accuracy at longer distances • how to direct weapon fire at targets on the ground and in the air • training in four-man unit deployments and formations—including wedges, columns, echelons and lines—techniques similar to those used by U.S. Marines and Army Rangers Is there a broader war between Islam and the west? • The war in Iraq has convinced more and more people in the Middle East that the US seeks to dominate them, using Israel and Iraq as bases. • Not a clash between Islam and the west, but US interests, and those of the people of the Middle East. War on Iraq • Our armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors or enemies, but as liberators. ... It is [not] the wish of [our] government to impose upon you alien institutions. ... [It is our wish] that you should prosper even as in the past, when your lands were fertile, when your ancestors gave to the world literature, science, and art, and when Baghdad city was one of the wonders of the world. ... It is [our] hope that the aspirations of your philosophers and writers shall be realized and that once again the people of Baghdad shall flourish, enjoying their wealth and substance under institutions which are in consonance with their sacred laws and their racial ideals. • -- General F. S. Maude to the people of Mesopotamia, March 19, 1917 • War on Iraq The government of Iraq, and the future of your country, will soon belong to you. ... We will end a brutal regime ... so that Iraqis can live in security. We will respect your great religious traditions, whose principles of equality and compassion are essential to Iraq's future. We will help you build a peaceful and representative government that protects the rights of all citizens. And then our military forces will leave. Iraq will go forward as a unified, independent, and sovereign nation that has regained a respected place in the world. You are a good and gifted people -- the heirs of a great civilization that contributes to all humanity. • -- President George W. Bush to the people of Iraq, April 4, 2003 Reasons for Going to War Against Saddam (according to the U. S. and Britain) Saddam kicked out U.N. weapons inspectors. WMDs Weapons of Mass Destruction. Saddam did not obey the No-Fly Zone limitations. He was a savage dictator. Stop Saddam before he can launch nuclear missiles against Israel, Europe, or even the United States. America's Invasion of Iraq Is a Gift (1) • America's invasion split the infidels and has provoked the community • America's quick military "victory" has put its soldiers where they are vulnerable to the kind of warfare we can wage--Iraq will be America's Afghanistan! • It opens a new front for jihad • It will provide a new radicalizing, bonding experience for hundreds of young recruits • Muslim insurgents will gain valuable field experience America's Invasion of Iraq Is a Gift (2) • How long can the Americans stay? It took a decade to convince the Soviets, but American's have even less spine or stomach for losses. Will they last until 2013 with 6,000 dead? • Once they depart to live in angry isolation, chaos will ensue in Iraq giving jihad new space • The apostate regimes of the Gulf will tremble and fall • Proves to many non radical Muslims that the U.S. is greedy and is just out to plunder the resources of the Muslim world. Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? • Objectives for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq • The United States sought to enforce a mandate from the United Nations to end the production and possession of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq • The United States wanted to end the reign of Saddam Hussein and implement a democratically elected government • The stated purpose was to end collusion between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda • After the major offensive, the campaign of violence against the United States and its allies was horrendous • Democratic elections took place in Iraq in January of 2005, but the Iraq insurgency continued Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? • Three main insurgent groups • Displaced Ba’athists who were part of Sadddam Hussein’s regime • Many Ba’athists believe they can reclaim power. The see themselves engaged in a guerilla campaign • Iraqis who want the United States to leave their country • Sunni militants • Militant Shi’ites • Iraqi Criminals Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? • Jihadists who have come to Iraq to fight the United States • Some flock from surrounding areas to fight as guerillas • Some are terrorists within an al Qaeda\style umbrella • They are behind many of the murderous kidnappings and suicide bombings • The three insurgent groups do not share a common vision for the future of Iraq and they are frequently at odds with each other Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological? • The culture factor • • • • An old Arab folk saying illustrates the overriding importance of family ties in Arab culture and the response to “the stranger”: “I and my brothers against my cousins; I and my cousins against the stranger” When such cultural aspects combine with the various ideologies motivating insurgent groups, it is possible to see that a major portion of the insurrection does not involve terrorism Many of the actions against Americans and their allies do not involve terrorism If the United States is to end major combat operations in Iraq, it will need to implement a strategy that addresses the major issues that insurgents and terrorist groups use to justify violence IEDs • Increasing use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and/or mines in roads. • Recommendations: • Do not attempt to move, or stop for, items in the road, to include: • • • • • • • Boxes Bags Debris Animal Carcasses UXO Soda Cans Broke-down vehicles • Give wide clearance to any items on the roads. • Remember the rules for obstacles – They are being observed. Hostile forces may directly target Coalition forces that stop to investigate or clear IEDS—do not stop near a suspected IED. IED Hidden in Plaster made to look like concrete block on side of road under debris Garage Door opener detonation device (Notice Wire) IED • 130mm HE projectile in Plastic bag. More IED • 130mm HE projectile in burlap bag (notice wires coming out of bag) VCR Tape IED X-RAY Image Are we hurting ourselves? • Today America is still fighting is Afghanistan and Iraq, two wars that were declared “over” years ago. • With every day that goes by and every Muslim killed, anti-American sentiment grows throughout the Muslim world. • “In conducting these activities [Afghanistan and Iraq]… US forces and policies are completing the radicalization of the Islamic world, something Osama bin Laden has been trying to do with substantial but incomplete success since the early 1990s. As a result, I think it fair to conclude that the United States of America remains bin Laden’s only indispensable ally.” Scheuer, IH, pg. xv. • “We thank God for appeasing us with the dilemma in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Americans are facing a delicate situation in both countries. If they withdraw they will lose everything and if they stay, they will continue to bleed to death.” – Ayaman al-Zawahiri. Why America Wants: a “Short War” • A short war means lower costs in lives and national treasure. • A short war reflects the enormous talent and power of our nation. • To the average American, the threat to the U.S. is difficult to comprehend. • War is alien to the peaceful nature and desires of our nation. Why the Global War on Terrorism is a “Long War” • The enemy is committed to his cause. He is prepared to fight to the death for what he believes is a defense of his religion. • The enemy has a strategy with global aspirations. He estimates it will take him decades to accomplish his strategic objectives. • It requires change within the Islamic world. Historically, such changes have taken centuries to occur. • It requires increased partner nation capacity – armed forces, police, economic development, and good governance – to combat the violent extremist threat. Such growth takes decades to achieve. • Bin Laden and others are patient. “The Americans should know that we have resolved to fight them fiercely in a long battle….Generations will pass on the torch to the following ones so that the Prophet’s flag remains raised in victory till eternity.” Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden’s Top Lieutenant Defeating an Ideology: Takes Time “The Islamic Radical threat of this century greatly resembles the bankrupt ideology of the last. The murderous ideology of the Islamic radicals is the great challenge of our century. Yet, in many ways, this fight resembles the struggle against communism in the last century.” -President Bush, 6 October 2005 • Communism – – – – Communist ideology gained prominence in 1919 US opposition began in 1946 43 years of Cold and Hot War to defeat the ideology Communism ultimately collapsed from within • Violent Islamic-Based Extremism – Threads of history thousands of years long – Potentially more legitimacy with a religious based ideology, especially when conditions support – group based vs. state based – more difficult to apply cold war strategies Key Lesson: Marginalizing an ideology requires patience and promoting reform from within Ideology: Cold War vs. Violent Extremism Cold War Similarities: • Measured in decades • Requires all elements of national power • Requires efforts of coalitions/alliances • Extremely high stakes – The further spread of terrorism – “Spillover” or “Domino Theory” – Greater restrictions of civil liberties to stem the expanding threat – Moderate governments in the Middle East at risk – Civil unrest in countries with sizable Muslim minorities Key Differences: • Religious basis of violent extremism versus a political ideology • Extremists are predominately a stateless enemy • We cannot discredit all of Islam as we did with communism, it is a divine religion. We can only discredit the violent extremist “…cures must come from within Muslim societies themselves. The United States must support such developments. But this process is likely to be measured in decades, not years.” - 9/11 Commission Report Building Capacity in the Cold War • Long Term Examples of Success (Decades of Support) – Germany, Japan, South Korea • Commonalities – Sustained American Presence – still today (over 50 years) – Significant American Investment – Democratic societies with free market economies • Payoff – Partner nations stood up to Communist threats – All are significant allies and trading partners – Each is a stabilizing force within their region Key Lesson: Capacity building takes decades…but it is what allows the United States to win this war in the long term. Consider How the U.S. can be Defeated… The United States cannot be defeated militarily. The enemy knows this. But consider: •The world’s most dangerous people possess the world’s most dangerous weapons – nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons… • Terror attacks weaken the world economy • Continued casualties weaken national resolve • Traditional allies prefer accommodation Would it expand the conflict into a “clash of civilizations?” Or… – – – – Force our economy into a recession? Depression? Create political pressure for isolationism? Deter us from necessary action? Force us to reach accommodation – “Peace in our Time?” To win, the US must exploit the vulnerabilities of the enemy. What are they? What are the Enemy’s Vulnerabilities? • The enemy’s violent acts, vision of the future, and ideology do not reflect the beliefs of the Muslim majority: – Murder of ordinary people widely unsupported within the Muslim population. – Repressive Taliban-like regimes do not appeal to the average Muslim. • The enemy has inherent weaknesses as well: – “Monolithic” view of Islam underestimates cultural and religious differences – No military capacity to expand their fight beyond terrorist tactics – Underestimates the will of America and our allies So what do we need to do? What is our strategy? US Strategy The three key elements in win this war are: –Protect and defend the Homeland –Attack terrorists and their capacity to operate effectively at home and abroad –Support mainstream Muslim efforts to reject violent extremism In addition to the strategic elements, there are three critical crosscutting enablers: – Expanding foreign partnerships and partnership capacity – Strengthening our capacity to prevent terrorist acquisition and use of WMD – Institutionalizing domestically and internationally the strategy against violent extremists This war goes far beyond the borders of Iraq, Afghanistan and the Greater Middle East What are the Implications of Quitting? Failure? • Violent extremist overthrow the government of Iraq. • U.S. image damaged throughout the world – an emboldened enemy • Resource rich safe havens for the enemy – increasing our risk of attack • Failure to stop the enemy now, while he is relatively weak, portends a larger conflict later – at enormous costs. • Much of the worlds energy resources held hostage • Many of the world’s population repressed and isolated from growth and prosperity • Extremists with the resources to carry-on continued attacks • Countries isolated from a global trading economy • Other religious beliefs repressed • American security and standard of living at jeopardy Why No Attacks on American Soil Since 9-11? (1) • Another attack remains an ambition • The jihadists lack capability? • Improved intelligence and security measures have made operation environment too difficult? • They certainly could do something • Anything below 9-11 scale would appear feeble • They are patient--8 years between '93 WTC bombing and 9-11 Why No Attacks on American Soil Since 9-11? (2) • They are exploiting opportunities in Iraq right now? • Locals won't act without approval? • If al Qaeda planning (or has ambitions for) another big one, a lesser attack now would make it more difficult--attack when the enemy is inattentive • Local recruits instructed to prepare themselves--a crackdown is expected • A strategy of "many Madrids?" What is next for Al Qaeda? • Al Qaeda will strike the US again. • It will be as big or bigger than 9/11. • It could be tomorrow, next year, or in 20 years. • Remember, Al Qaeda is patient. • Bin Laden wants us to leave the Middle East and give up our support of Israel. • “His aim is to force us to consider whether continued support of Israel is worth the bloodshed he promises.” John Miller as quoted in TOEE, 260. Why are we losing the War on Terror? • Faulty analysis of OBL and his threat. • Al Qaeda is not a typical terrorist group. It is multinational and not state sponsored. Most terrorist experts have underestimated OBL and Al Qaeda because of the latter. Most so called experts are trying to analyze OBL as a ‘normal’ terrorist, when he is anything but. He and his followers are motivated by religion and the belief that they are doing God’s will. This makes them much more dangerous than someone fighting for a worldly cause. • “Islamic fundamentalism represents a minority that would impose religious doctrine from and earlier historical era….The vast majority of Muslims worldwide do not support violence.” Richard Mackenzie as quoted in TOEE, p. 300. • “This war is fundamentally religious. Under no circumstances should we forget this enmity between us and the infidels For the enmity is based on creed.” OBL, quoted in TOEE, p. 19. Faulty analysis of OBL and his threat. • “If he had the wherewithal to kill Americans and attack U.S. targets he would do so, but he doesn’t…..as long as he’s in Afghanistan, as long as he doesn’t have access to a cell phone,….his ability to pan and conduct terrorist operation is extremely limited.” Unnamed State Department Counterterrorism Official, 1999, from TOEE p. 22. • “I just don’t think a guy in a cave in Afghanistan can send off e-mails over satellite phone ordering mass destruction anywhere in the world. Real life is not like James Bond movies, It is just not that easy to hold the world ransom.” London based Security consultant as quoted in TOEE, p. 302. Different Styles of War • Bin Laden is using a “no holds barred” style of war by attacking civilian and military targets. • “He (OBL) and other Islamic activists appreciate that neither the U.S. nor Israel can politically afford high levels of military casualties, as previous events in Beirut, Somalia, and Southern Lebanon have shown. Professor Magnus Rainstorm in TOEE, 209. • The US, on the other had is obsessed with trying to keep casualties on our side, and theirs, low. • We will lose if we continue in this manner. Imperial Hubris • We think we are right! • We have to understand that sometimes our actions, no matter how good they seem to us, are viewed by others as harmful to them. We need to understand that the American way does not work for everyone. We need to analyze our foreign policies to see if they are worth the backlash. If they are, we need to be prepared to accept it. How Do We Win? • Get tough or get out. • We cannot underestimate them, therefore fighting a limited war. • We cannot continue to fight a politically correct war. • Think WWII not Vietnam. • We have to kill those who hope to hurt us. • The public needs to be educated about the costs. • “The range of American policy options in the [Middle East] region is reduced to two alternatives, both disagreeable: Get tough or get out.” • “Westerners have learned, by harsh experience, that the proper response [when attacked by Islamic raiders] is not to take fright but to marshal their forces, to launch massive retaliation and to persist relentlessly until the raiders have either been eliminated or so coed by the violence inflicted that they relapse into inactivity…the world must learn again that the United States, when severely antagonized, is to be feared; that it grinds its mortal enemies to powder as it did sixty years ago, that the widespread view in extremist Islamic circles that it (US) is cowardly, decadent, and easily intimidated by the thought of casualties is false.” How Do We Win? • Reform the Immigration System. • We need to know who is in our country. • We need to be able to keep track of the people in our country. • We need to be able to get them out when their visa’s expire. How do we win? • Get Off Oil • We need to invest in alternative energy sources. • Not only will this help the environment, it will make our nation a safer place. • If we get off oil, we will have no reason to be in the Middle East, thereby making our country safer. • “Persian Gulf oil and the lack of serious U.S. alternative-energy development are at the core of the bin Laden issue. For cheap, easily accessible oil, Washington and the West have supported the Muslim tyrannies bin Laden and other Islamists seek to destroy. There can be no other reason for backing Saudi Arabia, a regime that, since its founding, has deliberately fostered an Islamic ideology, whose goals- unlike bin Laden’scan be met only by annihilating all non-Muslims.” Scheuer, IH, pg. xi. Most important point! • Killing Osama Bin Laden will not end the problem. • There are many who agree with him and someone will replace him upon his death. • According to a friend of bin Laden’s #2 man, “The fundamentalist movement’s leaders are ideas, a heritage, a stature, and principles that do not disappear when they (Bin Laden and other leaders) disappear.” • We need to solve the problems that have led to bin Laden and others hating us.