Macro-Conflict Analysis
for Emergencies, Development & Advocacy
One International NGO’s
Experience 2002-2011
World Vision International
1
What is MSTC?
• “Making Sense of Turbulent Contexts”
– World Vision’s custom-designed conflict
analysis tool
• Inspired by Philippe Le Billon’s work on
political economy of war (“winners” &
“losers”)
• 3.5 day workshop with 28 local
participants, drawn from civil society
• Always “in the field”
World Vision International
2
Conflict Analysis Tools
World Vision International
3
MSTCs since 2003: 36 workshops,
21 countries, 8 years, 4 languages*
*English, Spanish, French, Bahasa Indonesia
World Vision International
4
MSTC Analysis Cycle
Looking to the Future
The Past to the Present
Triggers & Scenarios
Rapid History
Actor Groups &
Characteristics
Group
Relationship
Symptoms
& Causes
Strategic Needs
MSTC
Mapping
Operational
Implications
Political Economy of
Instability
Integration
General Schedule
Monday
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
MSTC
Workshop
(1pm-5pm)
Presentation
& Discussion:
Recommendat
ions to
N.O. Senior
Leadership
MSTC
Workshop
(8:30 a.m.
-5 p.m.
Travel
Saturday
Sunday
Rest
Final check
of all
local travel,
logistics, and
supplies.
Room
Preparation
Friday
MSTC
Workshop
(8:30 a.m.
-5 p.m.
(Optional)
Facilitation
Team
Training
(Optional)
Facilitation
Team
Training
Facilitator
Preparations
MSTC
Workshop
(8:30 a.m.
-5 p.m.
Evaluation of
facilitators
and content
check
Rest
National office edits workshop notes and
Plans tele-conference in 4 weeks to
present final report to the organisation.
Facilitation
Team Meeting/
Reflection
Analysis &
Write-Up
*
Distribution
of workshop
notes to all
participants
*Facilitation team will deliver 10-12 page final report within 4 weeks of workshop end.
Key
Facilitation Team
Workshop
Participants
MSTC Agenda
Please do NOT distribute to participants in advance
Day 1
As per local tradition
Day 2
8:00 - 8:30
Reflection
8:30 –
8:45
Revision of Day 1
9:00-10:00
Actor Groups:
Characteristics and
History
(as
needed)
Tea/Coffee
10:0012:00
Inter-Group
Relationships
12:00-1:00
Lunch
Symptoms of
Instability
Welcome,
Introduction
2:00 – 3:30 p.m.
Rapid Historical
Phase Analysis
1:00-2:00
3:30 – 3:45 p.m.
Tea/Coffee
Tea/Coffee
3:45 – 4:00 p.m.
Reflection on
historical analysis
(as
needed)
2:00-4:30
Identification of
actor-groups
4:30-5:00
4:45 – 5:00 p.m.
8:30-9:00
Reflection
& Summary of
Day 2
9:30-10:30
Political
Economy II:
Economic
Activities
(as needed)
Tea/Coffee
10:30-12:30
Mapping
Lunch
1:00 – 2:00 p.m.
4:00 – 4:45 p.m.
Day 3
Closing
12:30-1:30
Lunch
1:30-2:30
Mapping
(as needed)
Tea/Coffee
Analysis of Political
Economy – Part I
2:30-4:30
Triggers &
Scenarios
Closing of the Day
4:30 – 5:00
Closing
Day 4
8:00-9:00
Continuing with
triggers &
scenarios
9:00-10:30
Strategic
Implications
10:30-10:45
Tea/Coffee
10:45-12:30
Operational
Implications
12:30-1:30
Lunch & Check
Out from hotel
1:30-3:00
Operational
Implications:
Report Back
(as needed)
Tea/Coffee
2:30-3:30
“Checking Out”
Exercise
3:30-4:00
Closing
So what does an MSTC look like?
8
Timeline
9
Symptoms & Causes
10
Resource Mapping
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MSTC Overview