Egypt AnPro-Model
Manual
Item – 2
Principal Features and Structure of the Model
Part 1: overview of the UNESCO Template ANPRO-Model
(Slides 2 - 9)
Part 2: the Egypt AnPro-Model
(Slides 10 - 16)
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
Egypt AnPro - Model
Manual
Item – 2: Principal Features and Structure of the Model
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Part 1:
Overview of
the UNESCO Template ANalysis and PROjection Model
The Egypt AnPro-Model is based on the UNESCO Template ANPROModel of the Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning. The
overview of the Template Model in Slides 2 - 9 helps to better
understand the Egypt Model.
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
Origin of ANPRO Model
•
UNESCO’s country experience with spreadsheet-based ESMs
started in late 1980s
- pioneered by UNESCO-World Bank Cooperative Program
- continuously developed at Headquarters, by Field Offices and by IIEP
•
in 2001 UNESCO (Regional Office Bangkok) prepared the
EFA Planning Guide, published in 10 languages
- it contains a how-to-do methodology and an analysis and projection tool
in the form of an Excel based ESM  the ANPRO Model
- its objective (i) help education ministries prepare a “credible” EFA plan
(ii) ensure consistency in EFA planning by countries and donors
•
in 2005 UNESCO published the
Handbook for Decentralized Education Planning
(2006 in French, 2007 in Arabic)
- it provides concept, methodology, tools for education planning
in the context of public sector management reform
(medium term expenditure frameworks, decentralization, etc.)
 the ANPRO Model
 This is an updated and expanded version of the Model
which replaces the one contained in the EFA Planning Guide!
it contains an ESM analysis and projection tool
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Purpose of ANPRO Model
The ANPRO Education Simulation Model is designed
 (1) to provide essential analytical and projection data
needed for the planning process
- the technical as well as the policy setting process

(2) to facilitate plan implementation monitoring
 (3) to be used in particular
- for target setting, priority setting, resource allocation
- setting of implementation indicators
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Users of ANPRO Model
Users of the ANPRO Model are:
 in countries:
- ministry of education
- ministry of finance
- ministry of planning
- sector management units at sub-national, decentralized levels
- research and training institutions
 at international level:
- financial donors and TA providers:
for international programs like EFA/FTI, MDG, PRGS
- training and research institutions
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5
Principal areas of use of data
produced by the Model
The data produced by the ANPRO-Model are needed and used
for all principal phases and steps of the planning process:
 Sector diagnosis, situation analysis; i.e. analysis of how the education
sector functions at present
 identification of possibilities for improving the functioning of the
sector (sub-sectors)
 projections of likely future developments of major components of the
sector (sub-sectors) under alternative sets of goals and targets,
i.e. under alternative policies and strategies
 projections of the resources needed to attain these goals and targets
(human, material, financial resources)
 assessment of the feasibility of goals and targets in terms of human,
material and financial resources
 identification of resource gaps
 setting of implementation priorities
 setting of indicators for monitoring of plan implementation
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
6
Typical features of ANPRO Model (page 1)
 ANPRO-Model is:
- designed in Excel and simple to use
- easily adaptable to specific country situations
- using existing data; it does not require expensive and complex
new data collection
 Analytical tools linked to the Model allow to check consistency
and validity of baseline data, projection assumptions and targets.
The ANPRO-Model is an instant tool for dialogue and
negotiation:
(i) within the education sector
(ii) between the Ministry of education and the Ministries of Finance
and of Planning
(iii) between central and sub-national level entities
(iv) between Government and donors
•
Dialogue and negotiation concern the setting of targets and implementation
priorities, filling of resource gaps, allocation of resources.
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Typical features of ANPRO Model
(page 2)
The Higher Education sector is not included in the ANPRO-Model
for the following reasons:
• in most countries the HE sector is under a separate ministry
• in all countries, the HE sector structure and functioning, its
regulatory framework, its stakeholder constituency, its
management culture, its resource allocation decision process,
its separate chapter in the public budget, its own forms of
financing, are particular features which make HE significantly
distinct and different from the pre-HE education sector.
• HE has its own, specific planning approaches.
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
8
Egypt AnPro-Model
Manual
Item – 2: Principal Features and Structure of the Model
=====================================================
 Part 2: The Egypt AnPro-Model (slides 10-16)
The most recent application of the ANPRO-Model is the
Egyptian Analysis and Projection Model (Egypt AnProModel)
which was designed for and applied in the preparation of the
National Strategic Plan
for Pre-University Education Reform in Egypt
2007/08 – 2011/12
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
Structure of the
Egypt AnPro-Model
(page 1)
 The Egypt-ANPRO Model includes all education subsectors which
are under the authority of the Ministry of Education:
- Preschool
- Primary
- Preparatory
- General Secondary
- Technical Secondary
- Adult Literacy
 The Model allows separate treatment of:
- Public schools (schools under government responsibility)
- Azhar schools
- Private schools
The Model-structure is the same for the different subsectors. As example
Slides 12-16 show the Model-structure of the PRIMARY subsector.
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
10
Structure of the
Egypt-AnPro Model
(page 2)
The Egypt ANPRO-Model comprises the following sub-sectors:
Pre-Primary (ECCE)
Model
Primary Model
Preparatory Model
General Secondary
Model
Technical Secondary
Model
Adult Literacy
Priority Programs
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Structure of Egypt AnPro - Model
(page 3)
Example: Primary Model
Links between sub-models
Pupil Sub -Model
Pupils
Graduates
Pupils
Teacher Sub -Model
Number of Classes
Number of Schools
Recurrent Expenditure
Sub-Model
Capital Expenditure
Sub-Model
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Structure of Egypt AnPro- Model
(page 4)
Primary Pupil Sub-Model
Population age 6
Inmigration
from other
area
Access rate to Public
(MoE) schools
Access rate to
Private schools
New entrants in
Public (Moe) schools
New entrants in
Private schools
Internal Efficiency in
Public (MoE) schools
Internal Efficiency
in Private schools
Enrolment and
graduates in Public
(MoE) schools
Enrolment and
graduates in
Private schools
Total Enrolment
and graduates
in Primary
Population
age 6-11
GER
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Structure of Egypt AnPro- Model
(page 5)
Primary Teacher Sub-Model
Public (MoE) schools only
Recruitment
Equivalent full-time
teachers needed
(click to see detail)
Attrition
rate
Attrition
rate
Permanent
teachers
Contract
teachers
Recruitment
Attrition
rate
Principals per
school
Newly recruited
teachers
Principals
Total full-time
teachers available
Average number of
weekly sessions by
teacher
Gap: equivalent full-time
teachers to be paid on a
session basis
Number of school
weeks per year
Attrition
rate
Non-Teaching
Staff per school
Non-Teaching
Staff
Number of yearly
sessions to be paid on
a session basis
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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Structure of Egypt AnPro- Model
(page 6)
Primary Recurrent Expenditure Sub-Model
Schools
School/related expenditure
per school
Salaries
(click to see detail)
School-related
expenditure
Pupil/related expenditure
per pupil
Enrolment
Pupil-related
expenditure
Number of teachers
% of teachers to be trained
Days of training per year
Cost of training per day
In-service
training
expenditure
Priority Programme
expenditure
Other expenditure
Pupil and
school- related
expenditure
Total
Recurrent
Expenditure
Recurrent
Expenditure
per pupil
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Structure of Egypt AnPro-Model
(page 7)
Primary Capital Expenditure Sub-Model
Classes
(groups of
pupils)
Classes (groups of
pupils) in double-shift
Classes per
classroom
Classrooms
needed
Available
Classrooms
% classrooms
to replace
% classrooms
to repair
Classrooms
to replace
Expenditure
per classroom
to build
Computer labs to
build and to
upgrade
Libraries to build
and to upgrade
Classrooms
to build
Expenditure per
classroom to
repair
Unit costs
Classroom
construction
expenditure
Classroom
repair
expenditure
Expenditure for
Computer labs
and Libraries
Total capital
expenditure
Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 2
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ANPRO Education Simulation Model