Building Economic Resilience
The Future for Oldham in the City-region
Michele Carr
Assistant Director Economic Development and Planning
Oldham Council
Purpose
To understand the future for Oldham in the City-region
against a rapidly changing operating landscape
•
•
•
•
•
Local Growth White Paper
GM Local Enterprise Partnership
GM Combined Authority
Seismic shift in economic and skills policies
Pending Localism Bill – will impact upon our land use planning
processes
• Need to collaborate to reduce public sector costs
• Changing funding regimes
• Our local Economic Assessment
Same vision, new tools, new language
The new operating landscape will provide
opportunities and challenges
•
•
•
•
Need
Productivity
Gap funding
Economic Return
Weaknesses and threats
Opportunities and strengths
What can the City-region do for us
What can Oldham
contribute?
• Delivering for public sector funders
Working in
partnership with private sector
What is still to be defined
•
•
•
•
Shape and role of the Manchester family
The relationship of the districts to the Manchester family
Our relative roles in relation to decision making
Whether all districts are as committed to working jointly
Agenda
8.30 – 9.00
Registration
9.00 – 9.10
Welcome and Introduction: The future for Oldham in the Cityregion – Michele Carr, AD Economic Development & Planning,
Oldham Council
9.10 – 9.30
Local Economic Assessment: Issues and Challenges for
Oldham – Alex Roy, Head of Economic Analysis, Commission
for the New Economy
9.30 – 9.50
The Emerging Strategic Context – Baron Frankal, Director of
Strategy, Commission for the New Economy
9.50 – 10.20
Roy
Q&A Session – Panel: Michele Carr, Baron Frankal and Alex
10.20 – 10.30
Closing remarks – Michele Carr, AD Economic Development &
Planning, Oldham Council
10.30 – 11.00
Networking opportunity
Greater Manchester Local Economic Assessment:
OLDHAM
17 November 2010
Dr Alexander Roy
Head of Economic Analysis
The LEA: What’s New?
— The LEA endorses and reinforces key findings of the MIER …
but nearly 2-years on, the LEA also tells us about:
— The current & forecast future impact of the recession
— The composition & risk profile of the public sector across GM
— The spatial dimensions of growth down to local level
GM Employment Growth 2003–08
0
4.5
9
GM Employment Growth 2003–08
0
5
10
miles
Middlebrook
Manchester
City Centre
Traf f ord
Park
Change in employment 2003-2008 in
Financial and Professional Services
1,000 to 8479
(9)
500 to 1,000 (15)
250 to 500 (20)
0 to 250 (891)
-250 to
0 (638)
-500 to -250 (20)
-1000 to -500
(5)
-5,905 to -1,000 (2)
Flixton
© Crown Copy right.
All rights reserv ed.
Licence No 100019918 2010
Oldham Business Base
FOOD & DRINK: 1.8%
(-56.1%)
AUTOMOTIVE:
2.1% (-10.8%)
ENGINEERING:
7.0% (-50.1%)
TEXTILES: 1.3%
(-70.3%)
LOGISTICS:
2.3%
(-15.0%)
ICT DIGITAL:
2.0%
(-7.2%)
PUBLIC ADMIN:
4.2%
(+18.2%)
CREATIVE:
4.8%
(+13.8%)
SPORT:
1.4%
(+29.4%)
HOSPITALITY
AND TOURISM:
5.4%
(+8.0%)
KEY (1998–2008)
MANUFACTURING: 15.3% (-50.2%)
(Source: ABI)
High Growth
Growth
High Decline
Decline
HEALTH: 14.5%
(+109.3%)
NON-HEALTH
RELATED
LIFE
SCIENCES:
0.7% (+75.4%)
CONSTRUCTION
8.2% (+17.1%)
FINANCIAL &
PROFESSIONAL
SERVICES:
10.6%
(+77.2%)
RETAIL:
14.4%
(+22.3%)
FINANCIAL:
1.0%
(-47.7%)
EDUCATION:
9.8%
(+13.0%)
HIGHER
EDU: 0.7%
(+63.8%)
Public Sector
24.1%
18,600
Private
Para-state
1.6%
1,200
Public
14.0%
74,3%
57,400
12.7%
12.0%
10.0%
% EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
8.0%
5.5%
6.0%
4.9%
3.7%
4.0%
2.4%
2.0%
0.0%
OLDHAM
GM
GB
-2.0%
-4.0%
-3.3%
-6.0%
PUBLIC
PRIVATE
Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010
Public Sector
1.80
2,500
employees
1.60
4,300
employees
1.40
1,400
employees
2,700
employees
1.20
1.00
GB average
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
c
ac
k+
So
ci a
lw
or
he
al
th
an
th
er
hu
m
O
ed
uc
nd
ar
y
se
co
Pr
im
ar
y
ed
uc
a
tio
n
at
io
n
0.00
Source: ONS Sub-regional public and private sector Estimates, 2010
ROCHDALE
· 4,500 from Oldham
· 6,300 to Oldham
Travel-to-Work
KIRKLEES
· From Oldham (under 1%)
· 1,400 to Oldham
BURY
· From Oldham (under 1%)
· 1,900 to Oldham
OLDHAM
•29K residents commute out
(40% of working residents)
•24K commute in (30% of
working population)
•Net flow = -5k
Salford
·
·
1,600 from Oldham
800 to Oldham
·
·
TAMESIDE
5,000 from Oldham
5,100 to Oldham
Stockport
TRAFFORD
·
·
•1,200 from Oldham
•900 to Oldham
MANCHESTER
·
·
15,600 from Oldham
2,700 to Oldham
Net importer of labour from Oldham
Net exporter of labour to Oldham
Source: ONS Annual Population survey
N.B. Only flows of 1% or more of origin local authority are shown.
Figures have been rounded.
1,000 from Oldham
To Oldham (<1%)
PROPORTION OF WORKING AGE POPULATION
33.0
Skills Levels
31.0
29.0
27.0
25.0
23.0
21.0
19.0
17.0
15.0
2001
100%
OLDHAM
23.4
26.7
29.8
80%
13.7
15.8
15.4
60%
16.4
16.4
16.0
40%
14.3
14.2
13.4
18.0
14.4
20%
18.0
12.6
14.4
12.6
0%
OLDHAM
NO QUALIFICATIONS
GM
OTHER QUALIFICATIONS
UK
NVQ 1
NVQ 2
NVQ 3
NVQ 4+
2002
ROCHDALE
2003
2004
2005
2006
STATISTICAL NEIGHBOUR AVERAGE
2007
2008
2009
ENGLAND AVERAGE
RANK OF IMD 2007
Index of Multiple Deprivation
in Oldham's LSOA's in 2007
Within least deprived 5%
Within least deprived 80-95%
Within least deprived 50-80%
Within most deprived 20-50%
Within most deprived 5-20%
Within most deprived 5%
People & Place
St. Jam es'
Coldhurst
St Marys
Saddleworth
West and
Lees Ward
Werneth
Alexandra
Medlock
Vale
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.
License number 100019918. 2010
Ward boundary
Rochdale
ACORN Type
Town centre
Motorway route
People & Place
Com fortably
Railway s tation
Urban Pros p
Metrolink s tation
Metrolink proposed route
Royton
Chadderton
Oldham
Source: CACI, ACORN (2010)
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.
License number 100019918. 2010
Ethnic percentages in
Greater Manchester's LSOAs 2001
Ethnicity in Oldham's
LSOAs in 2001
Rochdale
75 to 100% not White British
50 to 74% not White British
25 to 49% not White British
10 to 24% not White British
0 to 9% not White British
Heywood
St Marys
Shaw
Coldhurst
Royton
Middleton
Chadderton
Oldham
Werneth
Alexandra
Ethnicity averages:
Oldham = 15.6%
GM = 12.1%
NW = 7.8%
England = 13.0%
Medlock Vale
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.
License number 100019918. 2010
Ashton-U-Lyne
Ashton-U-Lyne
Moderate Me
Motorway junction
Metrolink route
Shaw
Hard Pressed
Wealthy Achi
Spread of Deprivation
100%
1.9%
10.9%
3.0%
8.9%
13.3%
2.8%
3.5%
7.6%
7.6%
90%
4.5%
12.8%
14.8%
28.9%
18.8%
16.0%
80%
29.0%
20.5%
13.2%
22.4%
22.5%
13.3%
23.4%
70%
16.0%
16.7%
20.0%
29.2%
60%
21.6%
24.6%
26.7%
24.2%
50%
16.7%
17.7%
27.0%
23.0%
40%
20.0%
17.4%
66.8%
30%
21.7%
46.5%
20%
42.2%
40.3%
39.4%
17.9%
18.1%
34.0%
10%
32.0%
18.3%
11.6%
10.9%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
W
IG
AN
D
FO
R
TR
AF
TA
M
ES
I
DE
T
CK
P
ST
O
R
O
C
SA
LF
HD
O
R
O
R
D
AL
E
HA
M
ES
T
CH
M
AN
O
LD
ER
Y
BU
R
BO
LT
O
N
0%
Impact of the Recession
RECESSION
BENCHMARKED EMPLOYMENT (2000 = 100)
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
2000
Key
Employment peak/
Return to peak
Employment decline
Employment growth
2002
2004
2006
2008
OLDHAM
2010
2012
2014
GREATER MANCHESTER
2016
2018
2020
Impact of the Recession
115.0
GREATER MANCHESTER P
110.0
105.0
OLDHAM PT
100.0
OLDHAM FT
GREATER MANCHESTER F
95.0
90.0
2005
2006
OLDHAM FT
OLDHAM PT
2007
GREATER MANCHESTER FT
2008
GREATER MANCHESTER PT
2009
115
Public Sector Cuts
INDEXED EMPLOYMENT
110
105
100
95
90
2009
2010
F ig u re 4 : P e s s im is tic s c e n a rio , 2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 5
P U B L IC
SECTOR
2011
2012
OLDHAM PUBLIC SECTOR
P R IV A T E
SEC T O R LO S S
P R IV A T E
S E C T O R G A IN
TOTAL
B o lto n
B u ry
M a n c h e s te r
O ld h a m
R o c h d a le
S a lfo rd
S to c k p o rt
T am e s id e
T raffo rd
W ig a n
N um ber
– 2 ,6 0 0
– 1 ,4 0 0
– 5 ,1 0 0
– 1 ,5 0 0
– 1 ,7 0 0
– 2 ,5 0 0
– 2 ,6 0 0
– 1 ,5 0 0
– 1 ,2 0 0
– 1 ,7 0 0
%
– 8 .8
– 6 .2
– 5 .4
– 6 .6
– 8 .8
– 7 .1
– 8 .3
– 7 .7
– 5 .6
– 6 .7
N um ber
-3 ,2 0 0
-1 ,7 0 0
-6 ,2 0 0
-1 ,8 0 0
-2 ,1 0 0
-3 ,1 0 0
-3 ,2 0 0
-1 ,8 0 0
-1 ,5 0 0
-2 ,1 0 0
%
-4 .4
-4 .5
-3 .0
-3 .5
-4 .2
-4 .0
-3 .5
-3 .9
-1 .6
-3 .0
N um ber
4 ,9 0 0
2 ,6 0 0
2 8 ,8 0 0
2 ,8 0 0
3 ,5 0 0
8 ,6 0 0
7 ,8 0 0
1 ,8 0 0
1 0 ,8 0 0
4 ,8 0 0
%
6 .7
6 .8
1 4 .3
5 .5
7 .0
1 1 .1
8 .6
3 .9
1 1 .6
7 .0
N um ber
-9 0 0
-5 0 0
1 7 ,5 0 0
-5 0 0
-3 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0
-1 ,5 0 0
8 ,1 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
%
-0 .9
-0 .8
5 .9
-0 .7
-2 .6
2 .7
1 .7
-2 .5
7 .0
1 .1
GM
– 2 1 ,9 0 0
– 6 .8
-2 6 , 7 6 0
-3 .4
7 6 ,6 0 0
9 .7
2 8 ,5 0 0
2 .6
S o u rc e: O B R , G M F M , N e w E c o n o m y an a lysis . N ote : m a y n ot s um d ue to ro u nd in g.
2013
2014
2015
OLDHAM PRIVATE SECTOR
2016
2017
GM PUBLIC SECTOR
2018
2019
GM PRIVATE SECTOR
2020
Challenges
— Oldham has a dependent relationship with the conurbation core
— Recession has reinforced and accelerated current spatial patterns
— There is a legacy of traditional manufacturing that is continuing
to restructure
— Whilst decline forecast to slow over next decade, even successful
advanced manufacturing will not create net new employment
— Oldham’s economic base is relatively weak and has been badly
hit by the recession
— Public sector has been the source of employment growth over last
decade
— Workplace wages and business start-up rates in Oldham are the
lowest in GM
— Oldham suffers from acute concentrations of multiple deprivation
— Poor skills, worklessness, deprivation and poor housing quality are
focused in and around the town of Oldham
— And is particularly prevalent amongst Oldham’s
Pakistani/Bangladeshi community
Opportunities
— Educational attainment is increasing, growing the skills base
from the bottom up to feed into demand from conurbation core
— University Campus Oldham (part of University of Huddersfield)
— Regional Science Centre
— And improvements in cultural/leisure/retail offer to support this
— Strong quality of life offer in large parts of the borough
— Important that Oldham can not only attract but also retain people
with higher skills
— Metrolink will provide connectivity directly to residential areas
— Hollinwood is strategically located and close to Airport for office
and industrial use
— Accessibility to other strategic sites, particularly Kingsway
— Support entrepreneurship amongst local communities
The GM LEA including the Oldham chapter are available at:
www.neweconomymanchester.com
Dr Alexander Roy
Head of Economic Analysis
[email protected]
Building Economic Resilience Across Greater
Manchester
Oldham road show event
The Emerging Strategic Context
Baron Frankal
Director for Economic Strategy
THEMES
• A new national economic development
landscape starting to become clear
• The Greater Manchester Strategy (GMS)
• Greater Manchester Local Enterprise
Partnership (LEP)
• Greater Manchester Combined Authority (CA)
• Conclusions
THE NEW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
LANDSCAPE
Winding down RDAs
Employment - New approach to welfare reform - Single Work Programme
Skills - Freeing up learning and training providers from central targets
Emerging central approach to business support, innovation, trade and
investment
Localism – Yet a role for functional economic areas through Local
Enterprise Partnerships – economic development, transport, planning,
regeneration
LOCAL GROWTH WHITE PAPER:
OPPORTUNITIES
•
Business support – potential for GM to deliver
•
Growth Hub – tentative proposal for joint bid with regional partners
•
Technology and Innovation Centre – potential high profile GM bid
•
International trade and inward investment – drive agenda, with
opportunities for GM LEP input and delivery
•
Monitor / drive regional transition work underway on business support,
sector support, land assets, research, EU
•
Tourism and marketing
•
Central role in Regional Growth Fund bids
•
Working with HCA on regeneration and securing housing delivery
GREATER MANCHESTER STRATEGY (GMS)
•
A solid foundation on which to build
•
Based on MIER and other evidence
•
Widespread consultation
•
GMS agreed by AGMA Executive Board, August 2009
•
Central government signs up in Agreement in December 2009 and
implementation
•
All bodies now implementing GMS
begins
GMS STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
• Focus on Early Years to maximise impact of interventions
• Better Life Chances in the most deprived areas
• Increase the proportion of highly skilled people
• Attract, retain and nurture the best talent
• Significantly improve transport
• Expand and diversify economic base
• Increase international connectivity of GM’s firms
• A Low Carbon Economy – GM specialising in built environment
• The Housing Market – Attractive and sustainable places to live
• More effective governance
• Building a Sense of Place
GMS & OLDHAM
• GMS provides focal point for collaboration
• Oldham - playing a key role in contributing to the implementation of the GMS
• Build on work underway in the Early Years and Better Life Chances pilots and
other GMS work streams such as Low Carbon, in which Oldham has played a
leading role
• Anticipation of difficult times through public service reform agenda and
realising benefits of collaboration
GREATER MANCHESTER COMBINED
AUTHORITY
• The GMCA ‘scheme’ was approved by all of GM’s ten local authorities in
April 2010 and submitted to Government
• 15 week consultation by CLG & DfT – majority of responses were
positive
• Proposition went to the Secretary of State for Communities and Local
Government recommending that plans for a CA in GM go ahead
• Government has now approved plans approval with draft order to be
laid before Parliament
GM LEP PROPOSAL
•
Submitted and now confirmed as a front runner
•
Shadow LEP now established and meeting monthly
•
Establish full LEP by April 2011
•
Recruitment process
•
Membership
TIMELINE
6th Sept
End Sept
Proposal
Submitted
Start Dec
Shadow GM
LEP & CA est.
Front-runner
LEPs announced
Negotiations with Government continue
GM Partners establish
shadow LEP infrastructure
Partners (shadow LEP)
implement appointment
process to full LEP
Partners (shadow LEP)
manage full consultation
April
GM LEP & CA
operational
PROPOSAL FOR GM LEP & CA TO OVERSEE
•
Research and strategy development
•
Science and innovation
•
Inward investment and international trade
•
Employment and skills
•
Business support for new business and growth
•
Marketing and tourism
•
European funding
•
Low carbon economy
•
Planning, housing and transport
RESPONSIBILITY, RESOURCES AND
CHALLENGES
•
Ongoing discussions with central government departments through Senior
Officials Group
•
Regional transition work underway
•
Employment and skills – influencing of strong centralised agenda that is
emerging
•
European Funding, RGF, Evergreen, TIF
CONCLUSIONS
• Changing landscape - regional structures abolished and new partnerships at a sub
regional level
• Combined Authority – primary accountable body that has potential to take on
responsibility for coordinating economic development and regeneration and
transport provision across Greater Manchester
• Local Enterprise Partnership established and potentially powerful tool to realise GM
aspirations
• Greater Manchester needs to focus activity on those strategic priorities through the
GMS that will bring long term sustainable growth
• It will be crucial to stimulate private sector-led economic development, whilst at the
same time mitigating the effects of public sector fiscal contraction where possible
Building Economic Resilience
Closing remarks
Michele Carr
Assistant Director Economic Development and Planning
Oldham Council
Closing remarks
• We are operating in a rapidly changing operating context
• The LEA has shown that we will face opportunities and
challenges ahead
• We need to ensure that Oldham DNA is embedded in the
Manchester family
• We need to ensure that “act-locally” and think “sub-regionally” in
a coherent way.
Q&A Session
Panel
• Michele Carr (Chair) - AD Economic Development & Planning,
Oldham Council
• Baron Frankal - Director of Strategy, Commission for the New
Economy
• Alex Roy - Head of Economic Analysis, Commission for the New
Economy
Networking………….
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