From stochastic optimization to
housing permits
Navigating the pot-holes to implementation in the real-world
Seventh New Jersey Universities
Homeland Security Research Consortium Symposium
November 20, 2006
Rutgers University
Warren Powell
Sophia Kim ‘06
CASTLE Laboratory
Princeton University
http://www.castlelab.princeton.edu
© 2005 Warren B. Powell, Princeton University © 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 1
Hurricane Katrina – A Predicted Tragedy
 FEMA (2001): “A major hurricane hitting New Orleans is
one of the three likeliest, most catastrophic disasters facing
the country.”
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 2
How can we help?
 Better infrastructure
» Stronger bridges, dams and levees
 Better forecasting
» Provide more advance warning
 Better evacuation procedures
» Reverse flow lanes to increase network capacity
» Buses and ambulances for those who need them
 Getting resources to those who need them:
» Food and water
» Medicine and medical personnel
» Security (police, national guard)
» Housing (“FEMA trailers”)
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 3
Trailers vs. Mobile Homes
Trailers
 Portable
 Less expensive than a
mobile home.
 Can be placed in disaster
zones
 Immediate set-up and
operation
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 4
FEMA trailers
 Pre-positioning FEMA trailers to respond to
disasters
» How much to buy?
» When?
» Where to place them?
 After the disaster:
» Getting the trailers to those who need them as quickly
as possible.
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 5
Measuring the uncertainty
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 6
Two-stage problems
 Two-stage resource allocation under uncertainty
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 8
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 9
Two-stage stochastic program
First-stage
acquisition and
positioning costs.
Second stage costs
and decisions
Probability of a
scenario
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 10
Computing probabilities
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 12
Alternate trailer locations
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 13
As storage locations are moved closer to the manufacturer, it is
cheaper to order more trailers
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 14
Implementing the second stage solution
 Step 1: Learn the actual demand
» Forecast demand as hurricane approaches
» Measure actuals as they are happening
 Step 2: Ship trailers to where they are needed
 Step 3: Incur costs
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 15
Forecasting demand
 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH
UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE
CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS
LONGER.
AT LEAST HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND
WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW
RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...ALL WINDOWS
WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
THE VAST MAJORITY...OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL
BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL
MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
 Message received by Brian Williams on his Blackberry
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 16
Forecasting demand
 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH
UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE
CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS
LONGER.
AT LEAST HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND
WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW
RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...ALL WINDOWS
WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
THE VAST MAJORITY...OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL
BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL
MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
 Message received by Brian Williams on his Blackberry
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 17
Information
The concept of an air drop of supplies was one we apparently
introduced to the director of FEMA during a live interview on
Nightly News on Thursday evening.
He responded by saying that he'd been unaware of the
thousands gathered at the Convention Center.
Later that evening an incredulous Ted Koppel on ABC was
left with no choice but to ask if the FEMA director was
watching the same television coverage as the rest of the
nation.
Brian Williams, Sept 5 2005
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 21
Implementing the second stage solution
 Step 1: Learn the actual demand
 Step 2: Ship trailers to where they are needed
» Where to move them to?
• Need locations, housing permits
» Logistics
• Need drivers, tractors and trailers
» Decisions
• Need someone to actually make the decision
 Step 3: Incur costs
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 22
Decisions
From MSNBC:
For nine days a mobile communications unit has been sitting in Germany
with a chartered plane standing by, ready to provide desperately
needed equipment for first responders. Company officials complain
they’ve placed hundreds of calls and can still get no answer from
FEMA. “This is the most frustrating exercise in futility I’ve had in my
entire professional life,” says satellite services provider Uri Bar-Zemer.
Last Friday, Mississippi asked FEMA for 20,000 trailers for temporary
housing. On Monday, when nothing had happened, Sen. Trent Lott of
Mississippi asked President Bush to intervene personally. The next day
he was told that 400 trailers were on the way.
“Just put it anywhere,” Lott said Tuesday, “Just get them there. We’ll put
them in the right place!”
Thursday, NBC News found hundreds of trailers still sitting in a facility in
Georgia.
“I believe that this response has been chaotic, indecisive and has caused
the loss of lives that was unnecessary and unacceptable,” says Bullock.
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 23
Decisions
From MSNBC:
For nine days a mobile communications unit has been sitting in Germany
with a chartered plane standing by, ready to provide desperately
needed equipment for first responders. Company officials complain
they’ve placed hundreds of calls and can still get no answer from
FEMA. “This is the most frustrating exercise in futility I’ve had in my
entire professional life,” says satellite services provider Uri Bar-Zemer.
Last Friday, Mississippi asked FEMA for 20,000 trailers for temporary
housing. On Monday, when nothing had happened, Sen. Trent Lott of
Mississippi asked President Bush to intervene personally. The next day
he was told that 400 trailers were on the way.
“Just put it anywhere,” Lott said Tuesday, “Just get them there. We’ll put
them in the right place!”
Thursday, NBC News found hundreds of trailers still sitting in a facility in
Georgia.
“I believe that this response has been chaotic, indecisive and has caused
the loss of lives that was unnecessary and unacceptable,” says Bullock.
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 24
Implementing the second stage solution
 Step 1: Learn the actual demand
 Step 2: Ship trailers to where they are needed
 Step 3: Incur costs
» Real costs
• Transportation, fuel, housing
» Human costs
© 2006 Warren B. Powell
Slide 27
How can we help?
Descargar

Modeling languages - Rutgers University