OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
11
Programme for International Student Assessment
Strong performers and
successful reformers in education
Lessons from global comparisons
Austin, 30 July 2012
Andreas Schleicher
Special advisor to the Secretary-General on Education Policy
Head of the Indicators and Analysis Division, EDU
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
13 October 2011
22
The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 yearold age groups, percentage (2009)
55-64-year-old population
About 39 million people
who attained tertiary level
25-34-year-old population
About 81 million people
who attained tertiary level
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
13 October 2011
33
The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 yearold age groups, percentage (2009)
55-64-year-old population
United States,
35.8
other, 12.9
Korea, 1.6
other, 14.5
United States,
20.5
Korea, 5.7
Australia, 1.7
Mexico, 1.8
Italy, 1.9
Spain, 2.1
Brazil, 3.5
Australia, 1.6
Mexico, 3.9
Japan, 10.9
Italy, 2.0
Spain, 3.5
France, 3.5
Brazil, 4.5
Canada, 4.2
United Kingdom,
5.3
Germany, 6.3
25-34-year-old population
France, 4.1
Japan, 12.4 Canada, 3.1
China, 6.9
United Kingdom,
4.4
China, 18.3
Germany, 3.1
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
13 October 2011
44
Public cost and benefits for a man obtaining tertiary education
(2007 or latest available year)
Public benefits
Public costs
193,584
168,649
United States
Germany
Belgium
Hungary
Slovenia
Finland
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Poland
OECD Average
Austria
Portugal
Korea
Ireland
Australia
Italy
Czech Republic
Canada
Japan
France
Norway
New Zealand
Sweden
Spain
Denmark
Turkey
167,241
166,872
155,664
100,177
95,322
95,030
94,125
91,036
89,705
89,464
89,034
85,917
84,532
82,932
81,307
79,774
67,411
63,701
Net present
43,419
value
46,482
37,542
29,582
28,621
21,724
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
In equivalent USD
How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
13 October 2011
55
65
Routine manual
60
Nonroutine manual
55
Routine cognitive
50
Nonroutine analytic
45
Nonroutine interactive
40
1960
1970
1980 The dilemma
1990 for education
2002 and training:
The skills that are easiest to teach and test are
also the ones that are easiest to digitise,
(Levy and Murnane)
automate and outsource
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
66
PISA 2009 in brief
PISA countries in 2001
2003
2000
2009
2006
1998

Coverage
world economy 83%
Over half
a million of
students…
81%
77%
86%
85%
87%

representing 28 million 15-year-olds in 74* countries/economies
… took an internationally agreed 2-hour test…
Goes beyond testing whether students can
reproduce what they were taught…
… to assess students’ capacity to extrapolate from what they
know and creatively apply their knowledge in novel situations

… and responded to questions on…


their personal background, their schools
and their engagement with learning and school
Parents, principals and system leaders provided data on…

*
school policies, practices, resources and institutional factors
that help explain performance differences .
Data for Costa Rica, Georgia, India, Malaysia, Malta, Mauritius, Venezuela and Vietnam will be published in December 2011
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
99
What 15-year-olds can do
Shanghai-China
High reading performance
Singapore
New Zealand
Japan
Australia
Belgium
Poland, Switzerland
United States
Germany, Sweden
France, Ireland
Hungary, United Kingdom
Suburban schools
Urban schools
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
10
10
Macao-China
Slovenia
Slovak Republic, Czech Republic
Luxembourg, Israel
Austria
Dubai (UAE)
Average performance
of 15-year-olds in
540.000
Korea
reading – extrapolate
Finland
Hong Kong-China
and apply
Canada
520.000
Performance distribution in US
18% do not reach baseline Level 2
Netherlands
Northeast
(16%, when
excluding immigrants)
Norway
Estonia
Midwest
Iceland
(Finland 6%, Canada 9%)
500.000
Liechtenstein
Chinese Taipei
DenmarkEconomic cost: 72 trillion $
Portugal
10% are top performers
Italy
West
Latvia
Greece
(Shanghai 20%)
South
480.000
Spain
Croatia
Lithuania
Turkey
460.000
Russian Federation
Chile
Serbia
440.000
55
45
35
25
… 17 countries perform below this line
Low reading performance
High reading performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
11
11
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Average performance
15-year-olds
Highof
average
performancein
science – extrapolate
High social equity
and apply
Strong socioeconomic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable
distribution of learning
opportunities
Low average performance
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High social equity
Low reading performance
High reading performance
Australia
2009
Belgium
Canada
High average performance
High average performance
Chile
Czech Rep Large socio-economic disparities
High social equity
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Strong socioSocially equitable
Italy
economic impact on
distribution of learning
Japan
student performance
opportunities
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Low average performance
Low average performance
Sweden
High social equity
SwitzerlandLarge socio-economic disparities
UK
55
45
35
25
15
US
Low reading performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
12
12
2009
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
High reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
High average performance
High average performance
Chile
Czech Rep Large socio-economic disparities
High social equity
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Strong socioSocially equitable
Italy
economic impact on
distribution of learning
Japan
student performance
opportunities
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Low average performance
Low average performance
Sweden
High social equity
SwitzerlandLarge socio-economic disparities
UK
US
Low reading performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
13
13
2009
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
Poland
United States
Sweden
Finland
Mexico
Ireland
Iceland
Norway
Hungary
Czech Republic
Austria
Italy
Denmark
Netherlands
France
New Zealand
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
Percentage points
United Kingdom
Australia
Japan
Greece
Germany
Luxembourg
Korea
Belgium
Switzerland
Spain
Portugal
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
14
14
High performing systems often prioritize the
quality of teachers over the size of classes
Contribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costs
per student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004)
Salary as % of GDP/capita
Instruction time
1/teaching time
1/class size
Difference with OECD average
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
High reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
High average performance
High average performance
Chile
Czech Rep Large socio-economic disparities
High social equity
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Strong socioSocially equitable
Italy
economic impact on
distribution of learning
Japan
student performance
opportunities
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Low average performance
Low average performance
Sweden
High social equity
SwitzerlandLarge socio-economic disparities
UK
US
Low reading performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
15
15
2009
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
High reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
High average performance
High average performance
Chile
Czech Rep Large socio-economic disparities
High social equity
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Strong socioSocially equitable
Italy
economic impact on
distribution of learning
Japan
student performance
opportunities
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Low average performance
Low average performance
Sweden
High social equity
SwitzerlandLarge socio-economic disparities
UK
US
Low reading performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
16
16
2000
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
High reading performance
Australia
Belgium
Canada
High average performance
High average performance
Chile
Czech Rep Large socio-economic disparities
High social equity
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Strong socioSocially equitable
Italy
economic impact on
distribution of learning
Japan
student performance
opportunities
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Low average performance
Low average performance
Sweden
High social equity
SwitzerlandLarge socio-economic disparities
UK
US
Low reading performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
17
17
2000
Durchschnittliche
Schülerleistungen im
Bereich Mathematik
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
18
18
Changes in performance by type of task
Increase
percentage correct
10
9
OECD
8
Japan
7
6.5
6
5
4
Japan
3
2
1
0
0.8
OECD
1.7
1.7
Japan
OECD
Multiple-choice - reproducing
knowledge
Open-ended - constructing
knowledge
School performance and socio-economic background
United States
Private school
Public school in rural area
Public school in urban area
643
Student performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
19
19
350
-2
Disadvantage
-1
0
1
PISA Index of socio-economic background
2
Advantage
PISA
30
20
10
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
%
80
70
60
0
Shanghai-China
Hong Kong-China
Korea
Macao-China
Singapore
Finland
Japan
Turkey
Canada
Portugal
Chinese Taipei
Poland
New Zealand
Spain
Liechtenstein
Estonia
Netherlands
Italy
Switzerland
Latvia
Australia
OECD average
France
Belgium
Ireland
Iceland
Mexico
United States
Greece
Thailand
Croatia
Tunisia
Norway
Hungary
Sweden
Slovenia
Indonesia
Denmark
Chile
United Kingdom
Israel
Colombia
Germany
Brazil
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Austria
Russian Federation
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Serbia
Jordan
Albania
Argentina
Dubai (UAE)
Romania
Bulgaria
Panama
Montenegro
Kazakhstan
Peru
Azerbaijan
Qatar
Kyrgyzstan
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
20
20
Percentage of resilient students among
disadvantaged students
Resilient student: Comes from the bottom
quarter of the socially most disadvantaged
students but performs among the top quarter of
students internationally (after accounting for
social background)
50
40
Less than 15% resilient
students among
disadvantaged students
More than 30% resilient
students among
disadvantaged students
Between 15%-30% of resilient
students among
disadvantaged students
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
13 October 2011
21
21
Policy
Policies and practices
R
R
System
E
School
Equity
Learning climate
Discipline

Teacher behaviour

Parental pressure

Teacher-student
relationships

Dealing with heterogeneity
Grade repetition




Prevalence of tracking
Expulsions



Ability grouping
(all subjects)



Standards /accountability
Nat. examination

OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
22
22
What does it all mean?
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
13 October 2011
23
23

A commitment to education and the belief
that competencies can be learned and
therefore all children can achieve
Universal educational standards and
personalisation as the approach to
heterogeneity in the student body…
… as opposed to a belief that students have
different destinations to be met with different
Lessons
from PISA
expectations,
and selection/stratification
as
the approach to heterogeneity
on successful

Clear articulation who is responsible for
ensuring student success and to whom

education systems
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
24
24

Clear ambitious goals that are shared across
the system and aligned with high stakes
gateways and instructional systems
Well established delivery chain through which
curricular goals translate into instructional
systems, instructional practices and student
learning (intended, implemented and achieved)

High level of
metacognitive
Lessons
from
PISAcontent of
instruction

on successful
education systems
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
25
25

Capacity at the point of delivery
Attracting, developing and retaining high quality
teachers and
school PISA
leaders and a work
Lessons
from
organisation in which they can use their
on successful
potential

Instructional leadership
and human resource
education
systems
management in schools

Keeping teaching an attractive profession

System-wide career development

FIN, Sahl, SIN
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
26
26

Incentives, accountability, knowledge management

Aligned incentive structures
For students


How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature of
the incentives operating on students at each stage of their education
Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and
study hard
Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing well
Lessons from PISA
For teacherson successful
Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation
systems
Improveeducation
their own performance







and the performance of their colleagues
Pursue professional development opportunities
that lead to stronger pedagogical practices
A balance between vertical and lateral accountability
Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge and
spread innovation – communication within the system and
with stakeholders around it
A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act
School autonomy, accountability
and student performance
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
27
27
Impact of school autonomy on performance in systems with and without
PISA score in reading
accountability arrangements
500
495
490
School autonomy in resource
allocation
Schools with more autonomy
480
Schools with less autonomy
Systems with more
accountability
Systems with less
accountability
System’s accountability arrangements
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
28
28
Public and private
schools
Observed performance difference
Government schools
Government dependent private
Difference after accounting for socio-economic
Government independent private
background of students and schools
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Australia
Austria
Canada
Chile
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
Argentina
Brazil
Hong Kong-China
Indonesia
Jordan
Russian Federation
Shanghai-China
Singapore
Chinese Taipei
Score point difference
Private schools
perform better
Public schools
perform better
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
29
29
Local responsibility
and system-level prescription
Trend in OECD countries
System-level prescription
‘Tayloristic’ work organisation
Schools today
The industrial
model, detailed
prescription of
what schools do
Schools
tomorrow?
Building capacity
Finland today
Every school an
effective school
Schools leading reform
Teachers as ‘knowledge workers’
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
30
30
Lessons from PISA
on successful
education systems

Investing resources where they can make
most of a difference


Alignment of resources with key challenges (e.g.
attracting the most talented teachers to the
most challenging classrooms)
Effective spending choices that prioritise high
quality teachers over smaller classes
CHN
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
31
31
A learning system
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA



An outward orientation to keep the system
Lessons from PISA
learning, technology, international benchmarks
as the ‘eyes’ and ‘ears’ on
of the
system
successful
Recognising challenges and potential future
threats to current success, learning from them,
designing responses and implementing these
education systems
SIN
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
32
32
 Coherence of policies and practices




Alignment of policies
across all aspects of the system
Coherence of policies
over sustained periods of time
Consistency of implementation
Fidelity of implementation
(without excessive
control) from
Lessons
PISA
on successful
education systems
CAN
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
33
33
Education reform trajectories
The old bureaucratic system
Some students learn at high levels
Student inclusion
The modern enabling system
All students need to learn at high levels
Curriculum, instruction and assessment
Routine cognitive skills, rote learning
Learning to learn, complex ways of
thinking, ways of working
Teacher quality
Few years more than secondary
High-level professional knowledge workers
Work organisation
‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical
Flat, collegial
Accountability
Primarily to authorities
Primarily to peers and stakeholders
OECD Programme for
International Student Assessment
PISA
Strong performers and successful reformers
Andreas Schleicher
Austin, 30 July 2012
34
34
Find out more about PISA at…
 OECD www.pisa.oecd.org
– All national and international publications
– The complete micro-level database

U.S. White House www.data.gov

Email: [email protected]
Thank you !
… and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
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