Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation 7 March 2008 International Intelligence Fellows Program www.oss.net www.earth-intelligence.net Words for Each Slide in Notes Before We Begin…. The U.S. Intelligence Community Before & After 9/11 Collection Failure Breakdown in Coverage and Language Access Digital Analog English Language NRO NSA Foreign Languages* Oral/Unpublished FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination 50% Less Costly Does Not Exist More Satisfying OSINT 0% HUMINT STATE SIGINT IMINT MASINT 50% What the Czar Does… I am NOT making this up…. Analytic Matrix for Understanding, Dialog & Action Over Time Affordable, Implementable 50-Year Strategy for Using Public Intelligence to Save Humanity & Earth Credible, Complete Plan for Integrating Public Information to Create Public Understanding and MorallySound Sustainable Policies & Harmonized Budgets at Every Level of Action Without Centralizing Anything at All URL: http://www.earth-intelligence.net, Click on about EIN for 10-page brochure. Earth Intelligence Network: High-Level Threat Summary + Two Breach of Trust Demands Electoral Reform Insist on legislation passing by 4 July‘08 Poverty Infectious Disease Environmental Degradation Inter-State Conflict • Without borders • Kills rich & leaders • Prevention critical • Low cost medicine • Changes that took 10,000 yrs now take 3 • Toxicity of everything • Poisoned earth/water • Security Council members sell the guns • Ban on arms exports • Regional peace nets Civil War Genocide Other Atrocities Proliferation • Corruption • Dictators (42 of 44 supported by USA) • Over basics of life • Resource scarcity • Lifetime of learned hatreds • Israel must adapt • Child slavery • Child prostitution • By name kidnapping • Murder for body parts • Cluster bombs, land mines, & small arms • Peaceful energy trumps nuclear bombs Terrorism Transnational Crime Corruption Fraud • One man’s bribe is a community’s loss of all • Open Money and Open Books can fix • Must improve salaries across the board • Apply Tobin Tax of .0006 to all Federal Reserve transactions • IRS gets same books as stockholders • “True Costs” up front • Pandemic • 5 billion globally • Increasing in USA • Foundation for all other threats • Cannot win “war” against a “tactic” • Law enforcement can resolve this • Too much on military, not enough on aid • $2 trillion a year • Vatican, Wall Street, USG, Mafia all are intertwined • Drug cash is liquidity Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Policy Summary Debt. $9 Trillion is “a lot,” Debt scales & incapacitates. USA Insolvent. MUST HAVE a Balanced Budget 25 years out. Agriculture Diplomacy Economy Education • Local & Organic • Deep Root Farming • Family/Community Owned Farming • Dogma kills • Restore USIA • Need global information sharing • End CEO Greed • $10/hr minimum wage • Full employment • LOCAL supply chain • Self-paced Online • Apprenticeships • Team Learning • Learn to learn Energy Family Health Immigration • Wind & Solar NOW • Portable Hydrogen • Two-way Grid • Green capitalism • One job per couple • End overtime • Community Centers • Build neighborhoods • Lifestyle • Environment • Natural Cures • Generic at 1% of cost • Enforce Labor Law • GLOBAL standards •Border Patrol +25,000 • National Service 2 yrs Justice Security Society Water • Pardon all marijuana offenders • Wind down the prison-slave complex • Eliminate corporate “personality” amnesty • Wage peace not war •Reduce the militaryindustrial complex • Belief systems and morality are core. • Connect 5B poor • Universal service • Universal health care • Preventive medicine • English required for citizenship & extended residence • Reflect True Cost • Global Manhattan Project to restore aquifers, push salt back • Regional Water Authorities (Global) Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Challengers Summary Eight Challengers, Four Methods Our only hope is to create an EarthGame™ the Challengers Can Use Brazil China India Indonesia • Demographic power • Energy independent • Macau connection to China • Energy Crisis • Water Crisis • Doing well on poverty • Exporting wombs • Water crisis • Most complex mix • IT rich, farm poor • Merits investments • Proving resilient • Rich in resources • Key to anti-piracy • Could lead region Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards • We overturned their democracy • Persians are not ragheads • Get over it & deal • Putin on a roll • Buffer on China only if we keep it European • Enormous potential • Embrace & assist • Populism is not socialism • Energy independent • Charismatic leaders can be ignorant • Congo •Malaysia • Pakistan • South Africa • Turkey Budget Design EarthGame™ “True Costs” • Balanced budget mandatory • Medicare okay if go with generic drugs • Too much on spies & military, shift $250B/yr • Sustainable • Cradle to Cradle • Lease don’t buy • Minimize shipping • End absentee owners • Public Health • Reality plus budgets plus active citizens online levels the field • For one third of war costs, can eliminate all ten high-level threats • Every product and service can be listed in online database • End-user can get true costs at point of sale via cell phone Affordable NOW First, get US to pay for Multinational Decision Support Centre and ASG/DS Second, creat $1 trillion a year Range of Gifts Table posted online Third, host an annual Harmonized Giving Conference for Foundations, Governments, and Corporations, with an individual donor table online. DSS Mission Statement • The Department of Safety and Security is responsible for providing leadership, operational support and oversight of the security management system to enable the safest and most efficient conduct of the programmes and activities of the United Nations System. • Observation: Information is the modern means for achieving security, both for protection of UN personnel, facilities, organizations, and missions, and for the host member states and indigenous or migrant populations. DSS Deficiencies of Concern • • • • • Threat Risk Assessments are delayed & incomplete Threat Risk Assessments do not reflect 360° UN System view nor regional/adjacent threat information Threat Risk Assessments do not have a well-founded directory of Indicators, Accelerators, and Triggers relevant to UN System security. UN Missions & individual UN agencies or forces have no integrated decision-support mechanism helpful to one and all. UN System has no global directory of sources with defined biases, sponsors, or agendas. • • • • UN System is not perceived as having an effective but totally moral, legal, ethical information system helpful to both the UN System & Host Government. UN System does not have safe, efficient, or reliable (constant) means of sharing helpful information across all UN System boundaries (agencies, countries, missions, locations) UN System information is not efficiently acquired, exploited, or shared UN System has no means for identifying relevant sources, softwares, and services for multinational information sharing and internal analytics. • UN System is not recognizing information as a major contributor to security. DSS Host Overview • We Must Connect – – – – – DPA DPI DPKO DSS All Other • Participating Groups – – – – – – UNIIIC UNIFIL ESCWA DSS UNTSO UNDOF • Three P’s – Posture – Perception – Political Compromise • Fundamentals – – – – – Food & Water Shelter Clothing Education Security • JOC/JMAC useful model • Member Nations creating Open Source Intelligence units (e.g. Scotland Yard) that have been very effective in achieving improved security. Sharing Legal Ethical Information Can Enhance Security & Performance for All Nine Pillars of Vulnerability Mitigation in UN System Security • POLITICAL COMPROMISE • OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES • MEDIA MANAGEMENT • PHYSICAL SECURITY • MANDATE & MISSION • TECHNICAL SECURITY • POSTURE & PERCEPTION • HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (Defensive Passive CounterSurveillance, Surveillance Detection, NOT Offensive Penetration) • INFORMATION MANAGEMENT Information—Open, Legal, Ethical Information—is the Essential Means for Mitigating All Nine UN System Vulnerabilities While Also Contributing to UN System Efficiency in Every Organization, at Every Level, for Every Function and Mission. Conceptual Opportunity • IOSAS – – – – – Integrated Open Source Analytical Support • UNODIN – – – – – – United Nations Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network Mission Joint Operations Centers and Force Joint Military Analysis Centers exist now, at an elementary level as conceptualized by MajGen Cammaert. Our endeavors will over time dramatically improve both JOC & JMAC concepts, doctrine, manning, equipping, training, outsourcing, sourcing, & analytics. Our objective over the next 20 years is to establish a global grid that makes the UN System the world’s best Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support capability in support of peace and prosperity. Information should be the nerves, blood, and brain of the UN System. Goal of the Training Initiative 1 2 Open Source Information • The goal of this training initiative is to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material available, and to integrate pertinent elements of the 80% into the 20% available from currently recognized national and UN sources into an Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) mechanism. 1. Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions 2. UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO Three-Day Plan Thursday • Introductions of Participants • Strategic View of Multinational Information Operations • Discussion of Two Online Guides with Links: – www.oss.net/BASIC – www.oss.net/LIBRARY • Discussion of Current Event Information • Participant Identification of Top Issues for Discussion • Sources & Methods (eg NATO) • How to Create a Wiki for Any Mission (eg30 ExpertWiki) NOTE: This gathering has three purposes: 1. To introduce six UN Lebanon groups to one another in person for improved sharing & support. 2. To identify global online and offline resources immediately available, free, to all participants.& their colleagues 3. To begin the process, with this “Class Before One” of defining how best to enhance UN access to and exploitation of multinational information among DSS, DPA, DPI, IM. Friday • Sources – 24/7 Call-In Number – Eight Sharing Tribes – Source Directory – Belief Systems – Financial Sources – Subscription Sources – Password-Protected • Methods – Internet Speed – Online versus Personal – Cultural Factors – Creating Flow – Forecasting – Summaries & Opinions • Indicators, Accelerants, & Triggers (Share & Improve) • Empowering Technologies – Ingestion – Sense-Making – Sharing – SILOBREAKER • Organizational Engineering – The Boss – The Source – The Budget – The Public Saturday • Security Risk Assessment (Training Exercise) - Brief Senior Person from Each of Six UN Elements - Establish missing Essential Elements of Information (EEI) - Discuss the needs of senior officers (e.g. Commissioner, spokesperson for UNIFIL) • Open Dialog • Challenge Questions • Specify follow-up actions for instructor and for participants in next thirty days • Instructor to develop a proposed syllabus for UN DSS open source decision support information network (UNODIN) and with help from participants, a draft UN Handbook on Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support. NOTE: all opinions are personal and off the record. Class Before One • A training concept—before the first “official” class, there is always a “Class Before One” that helps develop the need, the solution, and the presentation. • You are the Class Before One. Be very proud of this, each of you is a UN System decision-support pioneer. Imagine the UN System as a Wealth Creation Network Information Management is the center of gravity for UN System. Public Advantage I Here in 2008! We were here in 2006… US public scared back into reading and thinking; 75K amputees, GAO declares USA insolvent, 27 secessionist movements, “home rule” up, and corporate personality down. Critical Junctures 9-11 & Katrina, then multiple policy failures Public Advantage II TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL OLD SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE SECRET SOURCES & METHODS Sustainable Reality-Based Transpartisan Budgets OBSCURE DETAIL TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG OBVIOUS DETAIL OPEN SOURCES & METHODS Localized Resilience PEOPLE DECIDE MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES NEW BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING Public Advantage III Expert Forum Shared Calendar Shared Rolodex Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared 24/7 Plot Virtual Budget Weekly Review Public Advantage IV National Military Law Enforcement Targeting Secrets "Intelligence" Investigation Imagery "Protected" Open Academic Secret Sensitive Private Open Pricing Information Cost Information Order of Battle Mapping Client Information Undercover Signals Business Privacy External Information Metrics NGO-Media Secret Sensitive Private Open Citizen+ Secret Sensitive Private Open Public Advantage V This is the real “End Game” Future Vision for Global Information Sharing & Management Organizations Current Story Lebanon: Fatah al-Islam No. 2 killed Fateh Al-Islam Al Qaeda Gama´a al-Islamiyya Fatah Party Show More Key Phrases Refugee Camp Terrorist Group Martyrdom Allotment Show More Topics Civil Disruption / Riots Democratization Land Forces Documents matching your search Documents | Stories Territorial Disputes All (67) | News (67) | Reports (0) | Blogs (0) | Audio/Video (0) | Fact Sheets (0) Show More Documents Sort by: Date | Relevance Cities While Gaza burns Haaretz 08/21/2007 Tripoli (Libya) Quotes ...near the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared where Fatah Islam militants have been fighting Beirut Lebanese soldiers for more than two months. "Cabinet was informed by Interior Minister Hassan Sabei that Lebanese security forces have killed the Fatah Islam's No 2 in the Abu Samra neighbourhood" in Tripoli, Aridi told reporters Damascus following a Cabinet meeting last night [08/07/2007] DDI News - Lebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy ʿAmman commander The group said it was bringing the 'good news to the Muslims of the martyrdom of a noble brother,' Show More Countries Lebanon Syria United States Israel Show More according to the statement. "We in the Fatah Islam movement and all the true mujahideen, pledge to God to avenge our brother's blood from the infidels and the renegades" The authenticity of the statement, posted on a Web site which commonly carries messages from Al Qaeda and other militant groups, could not be independently... [08/09/2007] FOXNews.com - Fatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese Troops • • www.silobreaker.com is the single best tool, free for now Sense-making tools can be applied to both their content and yours. Intelligence = Decision Support • Intelligence is a process that creates decisionsupport. • It is NOT defined by secret sources & methods. • The Brahimi Report, Military Advisors to the Secretary General, and The High Level Threat Panel all validate urgency of creating a UN/NGO global decision support and multinational information sharing network. Orientation, Not Micro-Training • You will learn more on your own, and by sharing with one another, than can be taught here in three days • www.oss.net/BASIC has the primary links • www.oss.net/LIBRARY has 30,000 pages from 750+ speakers, this directory can be sorted and also searched • Consider viewing the lectures and movies first, especially the lectures on Analysis & New Rules, and the movie on Creating the World Brain. Analysis is a Profession • Four D’s – – – – Discovery Discrimination Distillation Delivery • If you do nothing else, read the Analytic Tradecraft booklet by Jack Davis, easily accessed online, free, via www.oss.net/BASIC. • Facts Are Not Enough – – – – – – – – History Cultural Context Adjacent Players Localized Indicators, Accelerators, Triggers Sharing 24/7 Cast a Wide Net Wild Cards Abound Thinking Matters More Than Technology Ten High-Level Threats • Poverty • Infectious Disease • Environmental Degradation • Inter-State Conflict • Civil War • • • • • Genocide Other Atrocities Proliferation Terrorism Transnational Crime Every Mission Confronts These Ten Threats One Way or Another— Avoid Narrow Focus, Always See the Forest, Not Just The Tree in Front of You Open Sources & Ten Threats • Economic and social threats including – poverty, – infectious disease and – environmental degradation 95% 99% 95% 90% • Inter-State conflict • Internal conflict, including – civil war, – genocide and – other large-scale atrocities • Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation) • Terrorism • Transnational organized crime 75% 90% 80% 95% 95% 75% 80% 80% On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN System’s Information Management is not. Scotland Yard OSINT 1. Created Open Source Branch in SO-11 in 1995 2. This helped put more terrorists and arms smugglers in jail faster and cheaper (instead of 3000 Euro for a surveillance team, 30 Euro for an address) 3. Unanticipated bonus: increased property and financial assets that could be confiscated from convicted organized crime bosses. Eastern Congo Twelve Action Areas • • • • • • Agriculture Diplomacy Economy Education Energy Family • • • • • • Health Immigration/Migration Justice Security Society Water Every Mission Has Narrow Channels and Deep Bureaucracies. Information Sharing is a Proper Ethical Means for Enhancing Effectiveness. If Any Action Area is Overlooked, Boss Needs to Know This. Analysis Cannot Do It All Prediction/Prevention You 1. 2. 3. 4. Improve Sources Improve Sharing Improve Analysis Improve Decisions by Supported Bosses Retaliation Self protection Everyone Else Environmental Security Model for Analytic Purpose Surprise Casualty Potential Probability Hezbollah, Iran, Regional Surprise Warning, meaning, need, elsewhere Probability: High Damage: Very High Surprise: Strikes Outside of Lebanon, Not by Hezbollah Israel 9-11 in Tel Aviv • • • • • • • 14 Aug 07 News Release Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah promises “surprise” if Israel attacks Lebanon again. Hezbollah has not been disarmed—15,000 rockets remain hidden (other source) Lebanon divided, Israeli soldiers still captive, situation is volatile Direct negotiations could help, truth & reconciliation Israel may not appreciate full extent of Iranian ability to provide supporting attacks, e.g. exploding buildings in Tel Aviv, cutting of US land supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad, Sunburn missile attack against Maritime Force. Israel, not Iran or Syria, is the most likely to take unilateral violent action that will trigger the “surprise.” Why Analysts Are Special I N F O R M A T I O N Available Information Actionable Intelligence The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! TIME Complex Organizations are Drowning in Information. Analytic Tradecraft, Applied by Analysts, is the Solution. Levels of Analysis: Threat Changes! STRATEGIC Integrated Application Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place Military Availability Geographic Resources TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources Military Reliability Geographic Terrain TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Civil Stability Civil Psychology Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, Finance This is very important. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis, and the threat is distinct, more on this shortly, in relation to the UN Mission, fixed facilities, mobile units, and individuals with both fixed homes and mobile platforms. Creating an Analysis Cell Central discovery, distributed exploitation Senior All-Source Collection Manager Internet Specialist Commercial Online Expert Primary Research External Contracts All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager • Six people can leverage global open sources for an entire Ministry or Service or Command • This reduces duplication while increasing decision support to all bosses • Saves money and creates value that can be shared with host country and others Seven Tribes (Eight) Religions, Clans, Labor Unions, Citizen Observers National NGOs Military Media Academic Law Enforcement Business New Decision-Support Paradigm OLD • NGO’s Don’t “Do” • Policy Over Intelligence • Unilateral • Mostly Secret • Technical Emphasis • Collection Emphasis • One-language filter • Mistakes hidden • Short-term thinking NEW • Brahimi Report ++ • Intelligence Over Policy • Multilateral • Mostly Public • Human Emphasis • Analysis Emphasis • Multi-lingual filters • Mistakes acknowledged • Long-term thinking Open Source Intelligence I Lessons of History China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. I Lessons of History • Neither the academics nor the government have done well here. • We need to fund both specialists in history, and a massive digitization project for Chinese, Islamic, other key histories. Open Source Intelligence II Multinational Burden Sharing II Global Coverage Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning • No one has the time, money, or ability to cover the world. • We must find new means of sharing the burden of collection, translation, digitization of global open sources in 33+ languages. • The Internet is vital. Open Source Intelligence III Leveraging the Private Sector III National Intelligence Harness distributed intelligence of Nation • We must establish open protocols for linking and leveraging the other tribes: military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO-media, and religious. • A global intelligence federation is needed. This Is Reality: We Go For The Green! Information-Sharing & Decision-Support Targeting Signals Imagery Order of Battle Secrets Mapping "Intelligence" "Protected" Open Undercover Investigation Privacy Metrics Secret Sensitive Private Open Client Information Pricing Information Cost Information External Information Secrets "Intelligence" Secret Sensitive Private Open "Protected" Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Open Facing Reality • Amilcar Cabral, African freedom fighter (1924-1973): Hide nothing from the masses of our people. Tell no lies. Expose lies whenever they are told. Mask no difficulties, mistakes, failures. Claim no easy victories. ... Our experience has shown us that in the general framework of daily struggle, this battle against ourselves, this struggle against our own weaknesses ... is the most difficult of all. • Henry Stiller, DG of Histen Riller, at French Information Congress, IDT ’93: 95% de l’information don’t une enterprise a besoin peut s’aquiris par des moyens honorables. • Tony Zinni, former CINCCENT: 80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20%, if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge. • Daniel Elsberg, speaking to Henry Kissinger: The danger is, you’ll become like a moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no matter how much experience they have in their particular areas that may be much greater than yours” [because of your blind faith in the value of your narrow and often incorrect secret information]. • Ted Shackley, Clandestine & Covert Operations Leader: In short, the collapse of the communist system in Central Europe has created a new situation for intelligence collectors. I estimate, based in part on my commercial discussions since 1990 in East Germany, Poland, Albania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, that 80 percent of what is on any intelligence agency’s wish list for this area as of 1991 is now available overtly. Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Enhancing Performance I Data standards and sharing matter Open Human It’s the back and forth that allows DNA to define life. • From north to south, Imagery east to west, if the Signals information is not entered digitally and according to some agreed upon standard, it will not be shared and will not contribute to UN early warning or decision support. Tip of the hat to the Director of the NIA in South Africa for this important insight. Enhancing Performance II 24/7 Geospatial “Plot” is Vital • There is no substitute for a 24/7 watch center that has a geospatial “plot” and can combine a knowledge of intelligence sources with a real-world depiction of locations, vehicles, targets, and individuals. Enhancing Performance III Fail in Isolation, Thrive in Combination • We are our own worst enemy. • Compartmentation and security are the enemy of timely intelligence. • Sources achieve their greatest effect when combined, not when “Okay, so maybe I was wrong not isolated. to tell you about my source--but you should have told me first…...” The Big Picture Four processing quadrants IV - Organizational Intelligence Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Organizational Memory System EXTERNAL CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) Patents, Etc. Data Visualization III - External Information Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring Customer Monitoring Trade Secrets Meta-Data Government Monitoring E-Commerce TECHNICAL Automated Analysis Project/Group Management Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Data Conversion Vendor Reporting Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Expert Hires “Just Enough, Just in Time” Business Intelligence Institutionalized Local Knowledge HUMAN Training Personal Brand Cell # Churning (Rotationals) Internal Reporting PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Trip Reports INTERNAL I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work Processing Quadrant #1 Knowledge Management INTERNAL • Internal Reporting • Vendor Reporting • Project Management • Data Conversion • Automated Analysis • Know what you know • Do not lose data, insights, links • Integrate people, projects, vendors, times, places, objects • Optimize application of technology to internal information Processing Quadrant #2 Collaborative Work INSIGHT • Employee Brand Names • Rolodexes • E-Mail Directories • Cell Telephone Networks • Trip Reports • Rotationals • Training • • • • • • • • Human Capital Inherent in People Who They Know How They Know When They Know What They Do Who They Tell How They Feel Processing Quadrant #3 External Information Acquisition EXTERNAL • Local knowledge • Expert hires “just enough, just in time” • Customer monitoring • Government monitoring • Technology monitoring • Environment monitoring • Legal, ethical, open! • Peter Drucker says this (external) must be the focal point for the next 50 years of innovation • OLD: spend on bodies & technology • NEW: spend on external information services in all languages, from all sources, all the time Processing Quadrant #4 Organizational Intelligence MEMORY • Intellectual Property • Organizational Memory • Meta-Data • History of Information • Electronic/Human Links • Survive Human Turnover • • • • Data standards Data entry mandated Storage & retrieval Historical access without legacy system training • Employee shoeboxes integrated/not lost ProcessingFinished Intelligence and Reporting Desktop: Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Analytic Toolkit Desktop Publishing and Word Processing A Collaborative Work B C Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Clustering and Linking of Related Data Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Eighteen ComputerAssisted Capabilities Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Graphic and MapBased Visualization of Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Automated Foreign Language Translation Structured Argument Analysis Modeling and Simulations Detection of Changing Trends Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Detection of Alert Situations Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Desktop No Easy Solutions, Not Integrated Plan **Powerize Extend Other CATALYST Elements? Excaliber Copernic Collect **C-4-U Scout SYSTRAN+? Topic **CI Spider GMS, Athens **E-Sense Google I2 Analyst Notebook Aerotext **Corporate Intelligence Service **Knowledge.Works OSALAT Information Portal, Silobreaker Comprendium **WisdomBuilder Identifier, SIFT, Analyst Workbench CrimeLink OnTopic, Labrador **Plumtree Corporate Portal **TextAnalyst **Strategy! Intelligent Miner Groove? For Text **Wincite **Market Signal Analyzer Share Analyze EDGE? ClearForest Suite DARPA STRONG ANGEL? Report ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report Content Extractor MindMap? USSOCOM OSINT TOOLS • These are the specific products used now. They are not integrated. • Collection: Copernic Pro (Internet search and download engine); Teleport Pro • • • (Internet spider); Convera Spider (Spider -- downloads all or selected parts of a website); Inxight StarTree / Crawler (Internet web site relationship mapper) Process: Copernic Summarizer (Summarizes individual files); SummIT! (Specialty summarizer embedded within Retrievalware and Semio); Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for determination of relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval); Apptek Machine Translation Database (Ibase / Ibridge) ((database for analyst notebook)); Inxight Categorizer (Smart categorizer) Analyze: Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for predetermination or relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval) Visualize: Webtas (Allows you to put data into a timeline with corresponding map information); Analyst Notebook (De-facto standard product for link product development but manual in nature— Talend Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) is better tool); Spire (Visualization application with "terrain" map view of data; MapInfo (Mapping package); ARCView / ArcIMS (Mapping package); Propeller (data linages (primarily communications focused); Intranet Brain (Web site mapping); EnFish Onespace (Indexing engine for analyst pc's Rule 7 “Two levels down” is the new standard State Targets -Lots of Assets Organizational Targets -Very Few Assets Individual Targets -Virtually No Assets • Nation-states are old targeting standard • New standard is at the province, company, and individual level • This is a double order of magnitude increase in the difficulty of being adequate Rule 13 Cross-fertilization matters more Consumer Collector Analyst Source • Old approach: consumer to analyst to collector to source-the linear paradigm • New approach is the diamond paradigm where collectors and analysts help consumers talk directly to sources Rule 15 Collaborative Work & Informal Deals Rise • Intelligence collectors and analysts will have personal “brands” • Peer to peer networks will form quickly to tackle new problems • Electronic access more important than physical location Rule 18 Collection doctrine more sophisticated • FIND the data if you FIND -- free, internal already know it • GET the data if it can be GET -- free, allies gotten free from an ally or NATO or the church BUY -- low cost • BUY the data from the private sector TASK -- expensive • TASK organic collectors as a last resort Rule 21 Strategic intelligence matters more PAST FUTURE NOW OPTIONS • Estimative intelligence must be restored as one of the primary objectives of analysis • Intelligence must support preventive action (in advance of the threat’s maturing), and budget trade-off decisions Security Risk Assessment • Political: History, Incidents, UNIFIL Vital • Media: Local, Regional, International • Security: Mission, Facilities, Units in Motion, Individuals (Vulnerabilities & Mitigation) • Important Points of Mention – Place for anything not fitting template – Distinguish between facts and opinions • DIME: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic (UN needs pro-active media strategy, media play, good & bad, vital) SRA Process and Stages – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Introduction Stage One: Programme Assessment Stage Two: Threat Assessment A. Situational Awareness B. Determination of Threats Stage Three: Vulnerability Assessment A. Vulnerabilities B. Strengths Stage Four: Risk Analysis Stage Five: Select Options A. General Options B. Improved Minimum Operating Standards (MOSS) Stage Six: Make Decisions A. Step One: Determine Priorities and Create a Timeline B. Step Two: Determine Funding and Resource Needs Stage Seven: Implementation Stage Eight: Review and Monitoring A B C 1 2 3 4 1: Mission 2. Facilities 3. Movement 4. Individuals A: Beirut B. North C: South Remember: the Threat CHANGES Depending on the Level of Analysis (e.g. Local versus Provincial versus National) Amazon Could Be World Brain All Information, All Languages, All the Time One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit Expert Forum Shared Calendar Distance Learning Shared Rolodex OPG VPN Shared 24/7 Plot Virtual Library Virtual Budget Weekly Review Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams 360° 24/7 All Languages…. UN Could Monetize Its Information Become the Earth Intelligence Network Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich Brazil China European Union Indonesia India Indonesia Russia Real-world Real-time Dollars & Sense USA Venezuela Wild Card(s) Outputs: Sustainable Solutions for Ten High-Level Threats Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All Levels Integrated Open-Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) within Missions & Centers Evolved into the Universal Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN) Academic Expert Published Authors Amazon Expert Published Authors STRATEGIC VIEW Multinational Information Sharing Activity IO/NGO & Indigenous Practitioners Coalition Civil Affairs Units OPERATIONAL VIEW Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 IDEN: Military as hub does not resonate—why not civilians? Robert: Military is “core” force, only integrated force able to move, do, and communicate. Military Hubs Key to low-cost free offline digitization and localized acquisition. Host Govt Host Academia CCC M4IS (Two-Way Reach-Back) BIG PIPE Host LEA Coalition Military Hub at Home Spoke at CCC Free Online Access & Call Centers Host Business Directly responsive to USG Inter-Agency Directly responsive to UN/NGOs in S&R Decision-Support, Predictive Analysis, on Irregular Threats Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Host NGO Host Media Host Civil • Advocacy Groups • Labor Unions • Religions & Tribes Regional Information Center C hie f o f C e nter S ing a po re D ep uty fo r C o lle ction D e pu ty for Pro ce ssing D e pu ty for An a lysis A u stra lia M a laysia C hina O S IN T D igitization W a rn ing H U M IN T Tran slation E stim a tive IM IN T V isua liza tion C ou n tries S IG IN T A n alytic Su p po rt Issu es Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan Copyright OSS.Net © 2007 Deputy for Covert Action Thailand Political Compromise • • • • • • • Implications for safety and security Forget about “national” analysis Focus on regions, tribes, clans, families. Grasp history as a foundation. Visualize competing equities. Value transparency and integrity. The UN System must always be perceived as moral and free of bias. Media Management • Media is not just the broadcast “main” media but also the Internet, sermons, and other forms of narrowcast. • Monitoring the media is an essential aspect of situational awareness. • “Spin” is misunderstood as manipulation. The UN System must focus on getting its message into all forms of media, this is a vital aspect of “intangible” security. Mandate & Mission • The UN mandates and mission are inherently flawed for lack of adequate decision support, inclusive of a grasp of history and a nuanced understanding of all regional actors. • Security comes from accuracy of understanding, before and during the mission. Posture & Perception • Posture defines perception. A lack of clear communication to every actor of relevance to the UN System is a death wish. • Posture is a message. • Perception is the mission. • Every action the UN System takes to communicate its goodness, its good works, is one less bullet, one less bomb. Information Management • The UN System is operating at less than 20% of capacity for two simple reasons: – Lack of 100MB Internet access for every UN employee at work and at rest. – Lack of access to the 80% of the open source information needed to be effective at the strategic, operational (regional), tactical, and technical levels. • Information is security. Information is efficiency. Information will define the UN System of the future. Operational Procedures • The threat to the UN System is as follows: • • • • • • • • Internal bureaucracy and big egos/small minds Lack of full access to all relevant information Recalcitrant Member Nations Organized opposition groups Internal espionage from Member Nations Lack of employee training and situational awareness Lack of focus by managers at all levels Lack of funding or influence over external funds • Information management can resolve all of these deficiencies. Physical Security • Physical security of fixed installation is the most tangible mission of DSS, and also the least important. • Virtual security is much more important and demands total situational awareness and total efficiency. • Morality, and the perception of the UN System as unbiased and totally for the good of the community being served, is the ultimate security. Technical Security • Defensive surveillance detection, and especially alert human intelligence able to observe and detect hostile surveillance of UN System sites and individuals, is the single most essential function of DSS. • Technical surveillance detection requires both constant audio-visual coverage, and constant human and technical review of the captured images and sounds. Human Intelligence • DSS is best served by having the most intelligent, dedicated, and intuitive humans on the planet. • There is no higher moral duty than to serve the UN System by protecting its missions, facilities, movements, and individuals. • Security is not about guns. • Security is about minds in constant action. Information Peacekeeping #1 Changing What Nations Spend Money On, While Focusing $1T in Charitable Funding for Ten Threats & Twelve Action Areas th er s Health O Culture R us sia Education pe Assistance Eu ro Intelligence U SA Diplomacy 0 500 Military • Public intelligence can change public spending priorities • Less on military, more on everything else • Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace Information Peacekeeping #2 Changing When & How We Intervene • Public warning can change public policy – – – – – – More Prevention More Peacekeeping More Education More Long-Term Aid Less Corruption Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. “Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles. Information Peacekeeping #3 Changing Who Does the Thinking & the Deciding on Public Budgets ® Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman • Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values • Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action • Berto Jongman’s map is Reference A--we must all support him. Information Peacekeeping #4 Changing How the World Views Intelligence Expert Forum Shared Calendar Shared Rolodex Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared 24/7 Plot Virtual Budget Weekly Review Information Peacekeeping #5 Changing the Strategic Focus • Connectivity everywhere • Content is digitized • Coordination of standards and investments • C4 Security across all eight tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets Information Peacekeeping #6: Creating Infinite Wealth for the Five Billion at the Bottom of the Pyramid • Representative Books: – End of Poverty – Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid (Prahalad) – Revolutionary Wealth – Infinite Wealth – Wealth of Knowledge – Wealth of Networks – How to Change the World • Major Lecture: – “Open Everything” at http://www.oss.net/GNOME • Today’s economy: – Seven Trillion/Year – Focused on 1B “Rich” – Two Trillion Illicit • Tomorrow’s economy: – Ten Trillion/Year – Focused on 5B Poor – Transparent Budgets Eliminate Corruption – “Green” Capitalism • “True Cost” Known • Cradle to Cradle • Re-Use Not Re-Cycle Recommendations for Tribunal • 100MB Internet access for every employee, at work and at home, is vital to both security & efficiency. • Budget for outsourcing commercial decisionsupport, e.g. threat evaluation of The Hague (three groups: entrenched anti-Tribunal families; potential host families for incoming terrorists; and discreetly approached friendly families who can provide Early Warning. • Establish a 24/7 Watch Center with a widelypublicized email address and telephone number with Arabic speaker always on duty even if from home. Recommendation for UN • The Coalition Coordination Center is immediately available as the world’s first multinational information sharing and analytic support center. • All you have to do is get each of your Missions to the UN to raise the need for such a center which will not use secret sources or methods. United Nations Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, Decision Support • Brahimi Report applies • Secretary General needs global decision support network instead of 77 libraries & isolated data bases • Information can prevent conflict, create stabilizing wealth and possibly fund all future UN operations through monetization of information.