Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation
7 March 2008
International Intelligence Fellows Program
www.oss.net
www.earth-intelligence.net
Words for Each Slide in Notes
Before We Begin….
The U.S. Intelligence Community Before & After 9/11
Collection Failure
Breakdown in Coverage and Language
Access
Digital
Analog
English
Language
NRO
NSA
Foreign
Languages*
Oral/Unpublished
FBIS
UN/STATE
CIA/DO
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
Processing Failure
Breakdown in Exploitation,
Dissemination
50%
Less Costly
Does Not Exist
More Satisfying
OSINT
0%
HUMINT
STATE
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
50%
What the Czar Does…
I am NOT making this up….
Analytic Matrix for
Understanding, Dialog &
Action Over Time
Affordable, Implementable 50-Year
Strategy for Using Public Intelligence to
Save Humanity & Earth
Credible, Complete
Plan for Integrating Public Information to
Create Public Understanding and MorallySound Sustainable Policies & Harmonized
Budgets at Every Level of Action Without
Centralizing Anything at All
URL: http://www.earth-intelligence.net, Click on about EIN for 10-page brochure.
Earth Intelligence Network: High-Level Threat Summary + Two
Breach of Trust Demands Electoral Reform
Insist on legislation passing by 4 July‘08
Poverty
Infectious
Disease
Environmental
Degradation
Inter-State
Conflict
• Without borders
• Kills rich & leaders
• Prevention critical
• Low cost medicine
• Changes that took
10,000 yrs now take 3
• Toxicity of everything
• Poisoned earth/water
• Security Council
members sell the guns
• Ban on arms exports
• Regional peace nets
Civil War
Genocide
Other Atrocities
Proliferation
• Corruption
• Dictators (42 of 44
supported by USA)
• Over basics of life
• Resource scarcity
• Lifetime of learned
hatreds
• Israel must adapt
• Child slavery
• Child prostitution
• By name kidnapping
• Murder for body parts
• Cluster bombs, land
mines, & small arms
• Peaceful energy
trumps nuclear bombs
Terrorism
Transnational
Crime
Corruption
Fraud
• One man’s bribe is a
community’s loss of all
• Open Money and
Open Books can fix
• Must improve salaries
across the board
• Apply Tobin Tax of
.0006 to all Federal
Reserve transactions
• IRS gets same books
as stockholders
• “True Costs” up front
• Pandemic
• 5 billion globally
• Increasing in USA
• Foundation for all
other threats
• Cannot win “war”
against a “tactic”
• Law enforcement can
resolve this
• Too much on military,
not enough on aid
• $2 trillion a year
• Vatican, Wall Street,
USG, Mafia all are
intertwined
• Drug cash is liquidity
Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Policy Summary
Debt.
$9 Trillion is “a lot,” Debt scales & incapacitates.
USA Insolvent. MUST HAVE a Balanced Budget 25 years out.
Agriculture
Diplomacy
Economy
Education
• Local & Organic
• Deep Root Farming
• Family/Community
Owned Farming
• Dogma kills
• Restore USIA
• Need global
information sharing
• End CEO Greed
• $10/hr minimum wage
• Full employment
• LOCAL supply chain
• Self-paced Online
• Apprenticeships
• Team Learning
• Learn to learn
Energy
Family
Health
Immigration
• Wind & Solar NOW
• Portable Hydrogen
• Two-way Grid
• Green capitalism
• One job per couple
• End overtime
• Community Centers
• Build neighborhoods
• Lifestyle
• Environment
• Natural Cures
• Generic at 1% of cost
• Enforce Labor Law
• GLOBAL standards
•Border Patrol +25,000
• National Service 2 yrs
Justice
Security
Society
Water
• Pardon all marijuana
offenders
• Wind down the
prison-slave complex
• Eliminate corporate
“personality” amnesty
• Wage peace not war
•Reduce the militaryindustrial complex
• Belief systems and
morality are core.
• Connect 5B poor
• Universal service
• Universal health care
• Preventive medicine
• English required for
citizenship & extended
residence
• Reflect True Cost
• Global Manhattan
Project to restore
aquifers, push salt back
• Regional Water
Authorities (Global)
Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Challengers Summary
Eight Challengers, Four Methods
Our only hope is to create an EarthGame™ the Challengers Can Use
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
• Demographic power
• Energy independent
• Macau connection to
China
• Energy Crisis
• Water Crisis
• Doing well on poverty
• Exporting wombs
• Water crisis
• Most complex mix
• IT rich, farm poor
• Merits investments
• Proving resilient
• Rich in resources
• Key to anti-piracy
• Could lead region
Iran
Russia
Venezuela
Wild Cards
• We overturned their
democracy
• Persians are not
ragheads
• Get over it & deal
• Putin on a roll
• Buffer on China only if
we keep it European
• Enormous potential
• Embrace & assist
• Populism is not
socialism
• Energy independent
• Charismatic leaders
can be ignorant
• Congo
•Malaysia
• Pakistan
• South Africa
• Turkey
Budget
Design
EarthGame™
“True Costs”
• Balanced budget
mandatory
• Medicare okay if go
with generic drugs
• Too much on spies &
military, shift $250B/yr
• Sustainable
• Cradle to Cradle
• Lease don’t buy
• Minimize shipping
• End absentee owners
• Public Health
• Reality plus budgets
plus active citizens
online levels the field
• For one third of war
costs, can eliminate all
ten high-level threats
• Every product and
service can be listed in
online database
• End-user can get true
costs at point of sale
via cell phone
Affordable NOW
First, get US to pay for Multinational Decision Support Centre and
ASG/DS
Second, creat $1 trillion a year Range of Gifts Table posted online
Third, host an annual Harmonized Giving Conference for Foundations,
Governments, and Corporations, with an individual donor table online.
DSS Mission Statement
• The Department of Safety and Security is
responsible for providing leadership, operational
support and oversight of the security
management system to enable the safest and
most efficient conduct of the programmes and
activities of the United Nations System.
• Observation: Information is the modern means
for achieving security, both for protection of UN
personnel, facilities, organizations, and
missions, and for the host member states and
indigenous or migrant populations.
DSS Deficiencies of Concern
•
•
•
•
•
Threat Risk Assessments are
delayed & incomplete
Threat Risk Assessments do not
reflect 360° UN System view nor
regional/adjacent threat
information
Threat Risk Assessments do not
have a well-founded directory of
Indicators, Accelerators, and
Triggers relevant to UN System
security.
UN Missions & individual UN
agencies or forces have no
integrated decision-support
mechanism helpful to one and all.
UN System has no global
directory of sources with defined
biases, sponsors, or agendas.
•
•
•
•
UN System is not perceived as
having an effective but totally
moral, legal, ethical information
system helpful to both the UN
System & Host Government.
UN System does not have safe,
efficient, or reliable (constant)
means of sharing helpful
information across all UN System
boundaries (agencies, countries,
missions, locations)
UN System information is not
efficiently acquired, exploited, or
shared
UN System has no means for
identifying relevant sources,
softwares, and services for
multinational information sharing
and internal analytics.
• UN System is not recognizing information as a major contributor to security.
DSS Host Overview
• We Must Connect
–
–
–
–
–
DPA
DPI
DPKO
DSS
All Other
• Participating Groups
–
–
–
–
–
–
UNIIIC
UNIFIL
ESCWA
DSS
UNTSO
UNDOF
• Three P’s
– Posture
– Perception
– Political Compromise
• Fundamentals
–
–
–
–
–
Food & Water
Shelter
Clothing
Education
Security
• JOC/JMAC useful model
• Member Nations creating
Open Source Intelligence units
(e.g. Scotland Yard) that have
been very effective in
achieving improved security.
Sharing Legal Ethical Information Can Enhance
Security & Performance for All
Nine Pillars of Vulnerability
Mitigation in UN System Security
• POLITICAL
COMPROMISE
• OPERATIONAL
PROCEDURES
• MEDIA MANAGEMENT
• PHYSICAL SECURITY
• MANDATE & MISSION
• TECHNICAL SECURITY
• POSTURE &
PERCEPTION
• HUMAN INTELLIGENCE
(Defensive Passive CounterSurveillance, Surveillance
Detection, NOT Offensive
Penetration)
• INFORMATION
MANAGEMENT
Information—Open, Legal, Ethical Information—is the Essential Means
for Mitigating All Nine UN System Vulnerabilities While Also Contributing
to UN System Efficiency in Every Organization, at Every Level, for Every
Function and Mission.
Conceptual Opportunity
• IOSAS
–
–
–
–
–
Integrated
Open
Source
Analytical
Support
• UNODIN
–
–
–
–
–
–
United
Nations
Open-Source
Decision-Support
Information
Network
Mission Joint Operations Centers and Force Joint Military Analysis Centers
exist now, at an elementary level as conceptualized by MajGen Cammaert.
Our endeavors will over time dramatically improve both JOC & JMAC concepts, doctrine, manning,
equipping, training, outsourcing, sourcing, & analytics. Our objective over the next 20 years is to
establish a global grid that makes the UN System the world’s best Early Warning, Multinational
Information Sharing, and Decision Support capability in support of peace and prosperity.
Information should be the nerves, blood, and brain of the UN System.
Goal of the Training Initiative
1
2
Open Source
Information
• The goal of this training
initiative is to find ways to
efficiently and effectively
navigate the broad
spectrum of open source
material available, and to
integrate pertinent
elements of the 80% into
the 20% available from
currently recognized
national and UN sources
into an Integrated Open
Source Analytic Support
(IOSAS) mechanism.
1. Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions
2. UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO
Three-Day Plan
Thursday
•
Introductions of Participants
•
Strategic View of Multinational
Information Operations
•
Discussion of Two Online
Guides with Links:
– www.oss.net/BASIC
– www.oss.net/LIBRARY
•
Discussion of Current Event
Information
•
Participant Identification of Top
Issues for Discussion
•
Sources & Methods (eg NATO)
•
How to Create a Wiki for Any
Mission (eg30 ExpertWiki)
NOTE: This gathering has three
purposes:
1. To introduce six UN Lebanon
groups to one another in person
for improved sharing & support.
2. To identify global online and
offline resources immediately
available, free, to all
participants.& their colleagues
3. To begin the process, with this
“Class Before One” of defining
how best to enhance UN
access to and exploitation of
multinational information among
DSS, DPA, DPI, IM.
Friday
•
Sources
– 24/7 Call-In Number
– Eight Sharing Tribes
– Source Directory
– Belief Systems
– Financial Sources
– Subscription Sources
– Password-Protected
•
Methods
– Internet Speed
– Online versus Personal
– Cultural Factors
– Creating Flow
– Forecasting
– Summaries & Opinions
•
Indicators, Accelerants, &
Triggers (Share & Improve)
•
Empowering Technologies
– Ingestion
– Sense-Making
– Sharing
– SILOBREAKER
•
Organizational Engineering
– The Boss
– The Source
– The Budget
– The Public
Saturday
• Security Risk Assessment
(Training Exercise)
- Brief Senior Person from
Each of Six UN Elements
- Establish missing Essential
Elements of Information (EEI)
- Discuss the needs of senior
officers (e.g. Commissioner,
spokesperson for UNIFIL)
• Open Dialog
• Challenge Questions
• Specify follow-up actions for
instructor and for participants
in next thirty days
• Instructor to develop a
proposed syllabus for UN
DSS open source decision
support information network
(UNODIN) and with help from
participants, a draft UN
Handbook on Early Warning,
Multinational Information
Sharing, and Decision
Support.
NOTE: all opinions are
personal and off the record.
Class Before One
• A training concept—before the first “official” class, there is
always a “Class Before One” that helps develop the need,
the solution, and the presentation.
• You are the Class Before One. Be very proud of this, each
of you is a UN System decision-support pioneer.
Imagine the UN System as a
Wealth Creation Network
Information Management is the
center of gravity for UN System.
Public Advantage I
Here in 2008!
We were here in 2006…
US public scared
back into reading
and thinking; 75K
amputees, GAO
declares USA
insolvent, 27
secessionist
movements,
“home rule” up,
and corporate
personality down.
Critical Junctures
9-11 & Katrina,
then multiple
policy failures
Public Advantage II
TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
OLD
SINGLE-CULTURE
SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS
DECIDE
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
Sustainable Reality-Based
Transpartisan Budgets
OBSCURE DETAIL
TIME
IMPACT
SHORT
TIME
IMPACT
LONG
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OPEN
SOURCES & METHODS
Localized
Resilience
PEOPLE
DECIDE
MULTI-CULTURAL &
TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
NEW
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
Public Advantage III
Expert Forum
Shared
Calendar
Shared
Rolodex
Distance
Learning
Virtual
Library
Shared
24/7 Plot
Virtual
Budget
Weekly Review
Public Advantage IV
National
Military
Law Enforcement
Targeting
Secrets
"Intelligence"
Investigation
Imagery
"Protected"
Open
Academic
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Pricing Information
Cost Information
Order of Battle
Mapping
Client Information
Undercover
Signals
Business
Privacy
External Information
Metrics
NGO-Media
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Citizen+
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Public Advantage V
This is the real “End Game”
Future Vision for Global Information
Sharing & Management
Organizations
Current Story
Lebanon:
Fatah al-Islam
No. 2 killed
Fateh Al-Islam
Al Qaeda
Gama´a al-Islamiyya
Fatah Party
Show More
Key Phrases
Refugee Camp
Terrorist Group
Martyrdom Allotment
Show More
Topics
Civil Disruption / Riots
Democratization
Land Forces
Documents matching your search Documents | Stories
Territorial Disputes All (67) | News (67) | Reports (0) | Blogs (0) | Audio/Video (0) | Fact Sheets (0)
Show More
Documents Sort by: Date | Relevance
Cities
While Gaza burns Haaretz 08/21/2007
Tripoli (Libya)
Quotes ...near the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared where Fatah Islam militants have been fighting
Beirut
Lebanese soldiers for more than two months. "Cabinet was informed by Interior Minister Hassan Sabei that Lebanese
security forces have killed the Fatah Islam's No 2 in the Abu Samra neighbourhood" in Tripoli, Aridi told reporters
Damascus
following a Cabinet meeting last night [08/07/2007] DDI News - Lebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy
ʿAmman
commander The group said it was bringing the 'good news to the Muslims of the martyrdom of a noble brother,'
Show More
Countries
Lebanon
Syria
United States
Israel
Show More
according to the statement. "We in the Fatah Islam movement and all the true mujahideen, pledge to God to avenge our
brother's blood from the infidels and the renegades" The authenticity of the statement, posted on a Web site which
commonly carries messages from Al Qaeda and other militant groups, could not be independently... [08/09/2007]
FOXNews.com - Fatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese Troops
•
•
www.silobreaker.com is the single best tool, free for now
Sense-making tools can be applied to both their content and yours.
Intelligence = Decision Support
• Intelligence is a process
that creates decisionsupport.
• It is NOT defined by
secret sources &
methods.
• The Brahimi Report,
Military Advisors to the
Secretary General, and
The High Level Threat
Panel all validate urgency
of creating a UN/NGO
global decision support
and multinational
information sharing
network.
Orientation, Not Micro-Training
• You will learn more on your own, and by sharing
with one another, than can be taught here in
three days
• www.oss.net/BASIC has the primary links
• www.oss.net/LIBRARY has 30,000 pages from
750+ speakers, this directory can be sorted and
also searched
• Consider viewing the lectures and movies first,
especially the lectures on Analysis & New Rules,
and the movie on Creating the World Brain.
Analysis is a Profession
• Four D’s
–
–
–
–
Discovery
Discrimination
Distillation
Delivery
• If you do nothing else,
read the Analytic
Tradecraft booklet by
Jack Davis, easily
accessed online, free, via
www.oss.net/BASIC.
• Facts Are Not Enough
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
History
Cultural Context
Adjacent Players
Localized Indicators,
Accelerators, Triggers
Sharing 24/7
Cast a Wide Net
Wild Cards Abound
Thinking Matters More
Than Technology
Ten High-Level Threats
• Poverty
• Infectious Disease
• Environmental
Degradation
• Inter-State Conflict
• Civil War
•
•
•
•
•
Genocide
Other Atrocities
Proliferation
Terrorism
Transnational Crime
Every Mission Confronts These Ten Threats One Way or Another—
Avoid Narrow Focus, Always See the Forest, Not Just The Tree in Front of You
Open Sources & Ten Threats
• Economic and social threats including
– poverty,
– infectious disease and
– environmental degradation
95%
99%
95%
90%
• Inter-State conflict
• Internal conflict, including
– civil war,
– genocide and
– other large-scale atrocities
• Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and
biological weapons (proliferation)
• Terrorism
• Transnational organized crime
75%
90%
80%
95%
95%
75%
80%
80%
On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address
the ten high-level threats, but the UN System’s Information Management is not.
Scotland Yard OSINT
1. Created Open Source Branch in SO-11 in 1995
2. This helped put more terrorists and arms smugglers in jail faster and
cheaper (instead of 3000 Euro for a surveillance team, 30 Euro for an
address)
3. Unanticipated bonus: increased property and financial assets that could
be confiscated from convicted organized crime bosses.
Eastern Congo
Twelve Action Areas
•
•
•
•
•
•
Agriculture
Diplomacy
Economy
Education
Energy
Family
•
•
•
•
•
•
Health
Immigration/Migration
Justice
Security
Society
Water
Every Mission Has Narrow Channels and Deep Bureaucracies.
Information Sharing is a Proper Ethical Means for Enhancing Effectiveness.
If Any Action Area is Overlooked, Boss Needs to Know This.
Analysis Cannot Do It All
Prediction/Prevention
You
1.
2.
3.
4.
Improve Sources
Improve Sharing
Improve Analysis
Improve Decisions by
Supported Bosses
Retaliation
Self protection
Everyone
Else
Environmental Security
Model for Analytic Purpose
Surprise
Casualty
Potential
Probability
Hezbollah, Iran, Regional Surprise
Warning, meaning, need, elsewhere
Probability: High
Damage: Very High
Surprise: Strikes
Outside of Lebanon,
Not by Hezbollah
Israel 9-11 in Tel Aviv
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
14 Aug 07 News Release
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah
promises “surprise” if Israel
attacks Lebanon again.
Hezbollah has not been
disarmed—15,000 rockets
remain hidden (other source)
Lebanon divided, Israeli
soldiers still captive, situation is
volatile
Direct negotiations could help,
truth & reconciliation
Israel may not appreciate full
extent of Iranian ability to
provide supporting attacks, e.g.
exploding buildings in Tel Aviv,
cutting of US land supply line
from Kuwait to Baghdad,
Sunburn missile attack against
Maritime Force.
Israel, not Iran or Syria, is the
most likely to take unilateral
violent action that will trigger
the “surprise.”
Why Analysts Are Special
I
N
F
O
R
M
A
T
I
O
N
Available
Information
Actionable
Intelligence
The New
Intelligence
Gap: the
difference
between what
you can know
and what you
can use!
TIME
Complex Organizations are Drowning in Information.
Analytic Tradecraft, Applied by Analysts, is the Solution.
Levels of Analysis: Threat Changes!
STRATEGIC
Integrated
Application
Military Sustainability
Geographic Location
Civil Allies
OPERATIONAL
Selection of
Time and Place
Military Availability
Geographic Resources
TACTICAL
Application of
Finite Resources
Military Reliability
Geographic Terrain
TECHNICAL
Isolated
Capabilities
Civil Stability
Civil Psychology
Military Lethality
Geographic Atmosphere
Civil Infrastructure
Over time and space
Channels & Borders
Of strategic value
Quantities & Distribution
Internally available for use
Volatility of sectors
Training & Maintenance
Mobility implications
Cohesion & Effectiveness
Military Systems One by One
Climate Manipulation
Civil Power, Transport,
Communications,
Finance
This is very important. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis,
and the threat is distinct, more on this shortly, in relation to the UN Mission, fixed
facilities, mobile units, and individuals with both fixed homes and mobile platforms.
Creating an Analysis Cell
Central discovery, distributed exploitation
Senior All-Source
Collection Manager
Internet
Specialist
Commercial
Online Expert
Primary
Research
External
Contracts
All-Source Analyst/
Presentation Manager
• Six people can leverage
global open sources for an
entire Ministry or Service or
Command
• This reduces duplication
while increasing decision
support to all bosses
• Saves money and creates
value that can be shared
with host country and
others
Seven Tribes (Eight)
Religions, Clans,
Labor Unions,
Citizen Observers
National
NGOs
Military
Media
Academic
Law Enforcement
Business
New Decision-Support Paradigm
OLD
• NGO’s Don’t “Do”
• Policy Over Intelligence
• Unilateral
• Mostly Secret
• Technical Emphasis
• Collection Emphasis
• One-language filter
• Mistakes hidden
• Short-term thinking
NEW
• Brahimi Report ++
• Intelligence Over Policy
• Multilateral
• Mostly Public
• Human Emphasis
• Analysis Emphasis
• Multi-lingual filters
• Mistakes acknowledged
• Long-term thinking
Open Source Intelligence I
Lessons of History
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
I
Lessons of History
• Neither the
academics nor the
government have
done well here.
• We need to fund both
specialists in history,
and a massive
digitization project for
Chinese, Islamic,
other key histories.
Open Source Intelligence II
Multinational Burden Sharing
II
Global Coverage
Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning
• No one has the time,
money, or ability to
cover the world.
• We must find new
means of sharing the
burden of collection,
translation, digitization
of global open sources
in 33+ languages.
• The Internet is vital.
Open Source Intelligence III
Leveraging the Private Sector
III
National Intelligence
Harness distributed
intelligence of Nation
• We must establish
open protocols for
linking and leveraging
the other tribes:
military, law
enforcement,
business, academic,
NGO-media, and
religious.
• A global intelligence
federation is needed.
This Is Reality: We Go For The Green!
Information-Sharing & Decision-Support
Targeting
Signals
Imagery
Order of Battle
Secrets
Mapping
"Intelligence"
"Protected"
Open
Undercover
Investigation
Privacy
Metrics
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Client Information
Pricing Information
Cost Information
External Information
Secrets
"Intelligence"
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
"Protected"
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Open
Facing Reality
•
Amilcar Cabral, African freedom fighter (1924-1973): Hide nothing from the
masses of our people. Tell no lies. Expose lies whenever they are told. Mask no
difficulties, mistakes, failures. Claim no easy victories. ... Our experience has shown
us that in the general framework of daily struggle, this battle against ourselves, this
struggle against our own weaknesses ... is the most difficult of all.
•
Henry Stiller, DG of Histen Riller, at French Information Congress, IDT ’93:
95% de l’information don’t une enterprise a besoin peut s’aquiris par des moyens
honorables.
•
Tony Zinni, former CINCCENT: 80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got
from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20%, if
I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified
intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge.
•
Daniel Elsberg, speaking to Henry Kissinger: The danger is, you’ll become like a
moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no
matter how much experience they have in their particular areas that may be much
greater than yours” [because of your blind faith in the value of your narrow and often
incorrect secret information].
•
Ted Shackley, Clandestine & Covert Operations Leader: In short, the collapse of
the communist system in Central Europe has created a new situation for intelligence
collectors. I estimate, based in part on my commercial discussions since 1990 in
East Germany, Poland, Albania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, that 80 percent of
what is on any intelligence agency’s wish list for this area as of 1991 is now
available overtly.
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Enhancing Performance I
Data standards and sharing matter
Open
Human
It’s the
back and
forth
that
allows
DNA to
define
life.
• From north to south,
Imagery east to west, if the
Signals information is not
entered digitally and
according to some
agreed upon
standard, it will not
be shared and will
not contribute to UN
early warning or
decision support.
Tip of the hat to the Director of the NIA in South Africa for this important insight.
Enhancing Performance II
24/7 Geospatial “Plot” is Vital
• There is no substitute
for a 24/7 watch
center that has a
geospatial “plot” and
can combine a
knowledge of
intelligence sources
with a real-world
depiction of locations,
vehicles, targets, and
individuals.
Enhancing Performance III
Fail in Isolation, Thrive in Combination
• We are our own worst
enemy.
• Compartmentation and
security are the enemy
of timely intelligence.
• Sources achieve their
greatest effect when
combined, not when
“Okay, so maybe I was wrong not
isolated.
to tell you about my source--but
you should have told me first…...”
The Big Picture
Four processing quadrants
IV - Organizational Intelligence
Out-Sourcing of
Information
Processing
Organizational
Memory System
EXTERNAL
CHUNKS
(Intellectual Property)
Patents, Etc.
Data
Visualization
III - External Information
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Government Monitoring
E-Commerce
TECHNICAL
Automated Analysis
Project/Group
Management
Heterogeneous
Search & Retrieval
Data
Conversion
Vendor Reporting
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Expert Hires
“Just Enough,
Just in Time”
Business
Intelligence
Institutionalized
Local
Knowledge
HUMAN
Training
Personal Brand
Cell #
Churning
(Rotationals)
Internal Reporting
PERSONALITY
(Insight/Intuition)
Trip
Reports
INTERNAL
I - Knowledge Management
II - Collaborative Work
Processing Quadrant #1
Knowledge Management
INTERNAL
• Internal Reporting
• Vendor Reporting
• Project Management
• Data Conversion
• Automated Analysis
• Know what you know
• Do not lose data,
insights, links
• Integrate people,
projects, vendors,
times, places, objects
• Optimize application
of technology to
internal information
Processing Quadrant #2
Collaborative Work
INSIGHT
• Employee Brand Names
• Rolodexes
• E-Mail Directories
• Cell Telephone Networks
• Trip Reports
• Rotationals
• Training
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Human Capital
Inherent in People
Who They Know
How They Know
When They Know
What They Do
Who They Tell
How They Feel
Processing Quadrant #3
External Information Acquisition
EXTERNAL
• Local knowledge
• Expert hires “just
enough, just in time”
• Customer monitoring
• Government monitoring
• Technology monitoring
• Environment monitoring
• Legal, ethical, open!
• Peter Drucker says
this (external) must
be the focal point for
the next 50 years of
innovation
• OLD: spend on
bodies & technology
• NEW: spend on
external information
services in all
languages, from all
sources, all the time
Processing Quadrant #4
Organizational Intelligence
MEMORY
• Intellectual Property
• Organizational Memory
• Meta-Data
• History of Information
• Electronic/Human Links
• Survive Human Turnover
•
•
•
•
Data standards
Data entry mandated
Storage & retrieval
Historical access
without legacy system
training
• Employee shoeboxes
integrated/not lost
ProcessingFinished Intelligence and Reporting
Desktop:
Revision Tracking
and Realtime Group
Review
Analytic Toolkit
Desktop
Publishing and
Word Processing
A
Collaborative
Work
B
C
Interactive Search
and Retrieval of
Data
Clustering and
Linking of
Related Data
Conversion of
Paper Documents
to Digital Form
Eighteen
ComputerAssisted
Capabilities
Production of
Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Notetaking and
Organizing Ideas
Graphic and MapBased Visualization
of Data
Statistical Analysis
to Reveal
Anomalies
Automated
Foreign Language
Translation
Structured
Argument
Analysis
Modeling and
Simulations
Detection of
Changing Trends
Processing Images,
Video, Audio,
Signal Data
Detection of Alert
Situations
Automated Extraction
of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing
and Converting
Data Formats
Processing Desktop
No Easy Solutions, Not Integrated
Plan
**Powerize
Extend
Other
CATALYST
Elements?
Excaliber
Copernic
Collect
**C-4-U Scout
SYSTRAN+?
Topic
**CI Spider
GMS, Athens **E-Sense
Google
I2 Analyst Notebook
Aerotext **Corporate Intelligence Service
**Knowledge.Works
OSALAT Information Portal,
Silobreaker
Comprendium
**WisdomBuilder
Identifier, SIFT,
Analyst Workbench
CrimeLink
OnTopic, Labrador
**Plumtree Corporate Portal
**TextAnalyst **Strategy! Intelligent Miner
Groove?
For Text
**Wincite
**Market Signal Analyzer
Share
Analyze
EDGE?
ClearForest Suite
DARPA STRONG ANGEL?
Report
** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report
Content Extractor
MindMap?
USSOCOM OSINT TOOLS
• These are the specific products used now. They are not integrated.
• Collection: Copernic Pro (Internet search and download engine); Teleport Pro
•
•
•
(Internet spider); Convera Spider (Spider -- downloads all or selected parts of a
website); Inxight StarTree / Crawler (Internet web site relationship mapper)
Process: Copernic Summarizer (Summarizes individual files); SummIT!
(Specialty summarizer embedded within Retrievalware and Semio); Convera
Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder
(Categorizing entity extractor, allows for determination of relationships between
known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy
(Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval);
Apptek Machine Translation Database (Ibase / Ibridge) ((database for analyst
notebook)); Inxight Categorizer (Smart categorizer)
Analyze: Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine);
Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for predetermination or
relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.);
Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for
methodological retrieval)
Visualize: Webtas (Allows you to put data into a timeline with corresponding map
information); Analyst Notebook (De-facto standard product for link product
development but manual in nature— Talend Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) is
better tool); Spire (Visualization application with "terrain" map view of data; MapInfo
(Mapping package); ARCView / ArcIMS (Mapping package); Propeller (data linages
(primarily communications focused); Intranet Brain (Web site mapping); EnFish
Onespace (Indexing engine for analyst pc's
Rule 7
“Two levels down” is the new
standard
State Targets -Lots of Assets
Organizational Targets -Very Few Assets
Individual Targets -Virtually No Assets
• Nation-states are old
targeting standard
• New standard is at
the province,
company, and
individual level
• This is a double order
of magnitude increase
in the difficulty of
being adequate
Rule 13
Cross-fertilization matters more
Consumer
Collector
Analyst
Source
• Old approach:
consumer to analyst
to collector to source-the linear paradigm
• New approach is the
diamond paradigm
where collectors and
analysts help
consumers talk
directly to sources
Rule 15
Collaborative Work & Informal Deals Rise
• Intelligence collectors
and analysts will have
personal “brands”
• Peer to peer networks
will form quickly to
tackle new problems
• Electronic access
more important than
physical location
Rule 18
Collection doctrine more sophisticated
• FIND the data if you
FIND -- free, internal already know it
• GET the data if it can be
GET -- free, allies
gotten free from an ally
or NATO or the church
BUY -- low cost
• BUY the data from the
private sector
TASK -- expensive • TASK organic collectors
as a last resort
Rule 21
Strategic intelligence matters more
PAST
FUTURE
NOW
OPTIONS
• Estimative
intelligence must be
restored as one of
the primary
objectives of analysis
• Intelligence must
support preventive
action (in advance of
the threat’s
maturing), and
budget trade-off
decisions
Security Risk Assessment
• Political: History, Incidents, UNIFIL Vital
• Media: Local, Regional, International
• Security: Mission, Facilities, Units in Motion,
Individuals (Vulnerabilities & Mitigation)
• Important Points of Mention
– Place for anything not fitting template
– Distinguish between facts and opinions
• DIME: Diplomatic, Information, Military,
Economic (UN needs pro-active media strategy,
media play, good & bad, vital)
SRA Process and Stages
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Introduction
Stage One: Programme Assessment
Stage Two: Threat Assessment
A. Situational Awareness
B. Determination of Threats
Stage Three: Vulnerability Assessment
A. Vulnerabilities
B. Strengths
Stage Four: Risk Analysis
Stage Five: Select Options
A. General Options
B. Improved Minimum Operating Standards (MOSS)
Stage Six: Make Decisions
A. Step One: Determine Priorities and Create a Timeline
B. Step Two: Determine Funding and Resource Needs
Stage Seven: Implementation
Stage Eight: Review and Monitoring
A
B
C
1
2
3
4
1: Mission
2. Facilities
3. Movement
4. Individuals
A: Beirut
B. North
C: South
Remember: the Threat CHANGES Depending on the Level of Analysis
(e.g. Local versus Provincial versus National)
Amazon Could Be World Brain
All Information, All Languages, All the Time
One-Stop
Shop
Displaces
Intermediaries
& Triples Profit
Expert Forum
Shared
Calendar
Distance
Learning
Shared
Rolodex
OPG
VPN
Shared
24/7 Plot
Virtual
Library
Virtual
Budget
Weekly Review
Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams
360° 24/7 All Languages….
UN Could Monetize Its Information
Become the Earth Intelligence Network
Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic
Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information
Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich
Brazil
China
European Union
Indonesia
India
Indonesia
Russia
Real-world
Real-time
Dollars & Sense
USA
Venezuela
Wild Card(s)
Outputs: Sustainable Solutions for Ten High-Level Threats
Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All Levels
Integrated Open-Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) within Missions & Centers
Evolved into the Universal Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN)
Academic
Expert
Published
Authors
Amazon
Expert
Published
Authors
STRATEGIC VIEW
Multinational
Information
Sharing
Activity
IO/NGO &
Indigenous
Practitioners
Coalition
Civil
Affairs
Units
OPERATIONAL VIEW
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
IDEN: Military as hub does not resonate—why not civilians?
Robert: Military is “core” force, only integrated force able to move, do, and
communicate. Military Hubs Key to low-cost free offline digitization and localized
acquisition.
Host Govt
Host
Academia
CCC M4IS
(Two-Way Reach-Back)
BIG
PIPE
Host LEA
Coalition Military
Hub at Home
Spoke at CCC
Free Online Access
& Call Centers
Host
Business
Directly responsive to USG Inter-Agency
Directly responsive to UN/NGOs in S&R
Decision-Support, Predictive Analysis, on Irregular Threats
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Host
NGO
Host
Media
Host Civil
• Advocacy Groups
• Labor Unions
• Religions & Tribes
Regional Information Center
C hie f o f C e nter
S ing a po re
D ep uty fo r C o lle ction
D e pu ty for Pro ce ssing
D e pu ty for An a lysis
A u stra lia
M a laysia
C hina
O S IN T
D igitization
W a rn ing
H U M IN T
Tran slation
E stim a tive
IM IN T
V isua liza tion
C ou n tries
S IG IN T
A n alytic Su p po rt
Issu es
Deputy for Counterintelligence
Japan
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Deputy for Covert Action
Thailand
Political Compromise
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Implications for safety and security
Forget about “national” analysis
Focus on regions, tribes, clans, families.
Grasp history as a foundation.
Visualize competing equities.
Value transparency and integrity.
The UN System must always be perceived
as moral and free of bias.
Media Management
• Media is not just the broadcast “main”
media but also the Internet, sermons, and
other forms of narrowcast.
• Monitoring the media is an essential
aspect of situational awareness.
• “Spin” is misunderstood as manipulation.
The UN System must focus on getting its
message into all forms of media, this is a
vital aspect of “intangible” security.
Mandate & Mission
• The UN mandates and mission are
inherently flawed for lack of adequate
decision support, inclusive of a grasp of
history and a nuanced understanding of all
regional actors.
• Security comes from accuracy of
understanding, before and during the
mission.
Posture & Perception
• Posture defines perception. A lack of
clear communication to every actor of
relevance to the UN System is a death
wish.
• Posture is a message.
• Perception is the mission.
• Every action the UN System takes to
communicate its goodness, its good
works, is one less bullet, one less bomb.
Information Management
• The UN System is operating at less than
20% of capacity for two simple reasons:
– Lack of 100MB Internet access for every UN
employee at work and at rest.
– Lack of access to the 80% of the open source
information needed to be effective at the
strategic, operational (regional), tactical, and
technical levels.
• Information is security. Information is
efficiency. Information will define the UN
System of the future.
Operational Procedures
• The threat to the UN System is as follows:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Internal bureaucracy and big egos/small minds
Lack of full access to all relevant information
Recalcitrant Member Nations
Organized opposition groups
Internal espionage from Member Nations
Lack of employee training and situational awareness
Lack of focus by managers at all levels
Lack of funding or influence over external funds
• Information management can resolve all of
these deficiencies.
Physical Security
• Physical security of fixed installation is the most
tangible mission of DSS, and also the least
important.
• Virtual security is much more important and
demands total situational awareness and total
efficiency.
• Morality, and the perception of the UN System
as unbiased and totally for the good of the
community being served, is the ultimate security.
Technical Security
• Defensive surveillance detection, and
especially alert human intelligence able to
observe and detect hostile surveillance of
UN System sites and individuals, is the
single most essential function of DSS.
• Technical surveillance detection requires
both constant audio-visual coverage, and
constant human and technical review of
the captured images and sounds.
Human Intelligence
• DSS is best served by having the most
intelligent, dedicated, and intuitive humans on
the planet.
• There is no higher moral duty than to serve
the UN System by protecting its missions,
facilities, movements, and individuals.
• Security is not about guns.
• Security is about minds in constant action.
Information Peacekeeping #1
Changing What Nations Spend Money On,
While Focusing $1T in Charitable Funding for
Ten Threats & Twelve Action Areas
th
er
s
Health
O
Culture
R
us
sia
Education
pe
Assistance
Eu
ro
Intelligence
U
SA
Diplomacy
0
500
Military
• Public intelligence can
change public spending
priorities
• Less on military, more
on everything else
• Global intelligence can
create global security
forces and funds for
sustaining Earth and
Peace
Information Peacekeeping #2
Changing When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can
change public policy
–
–
–
–
–
–
More Prevention
More Peacekeeping
More Education
More Long-Term Aid
Less Corruption
Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.
“Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles.
Information Peacekeeping #3
Changing Who Does the Thinking &
the Deciding on Public Budgets
®
Conflict Facts for 2002
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with
permission © 2002 A. Jongman
• Public, not elites,
must be the final
judge of global
security values
• Public intelligence will
enable public
understanding/action
• Berto Jongman’s map
is Reference A--we
must all support him.
Information Peacekeeping #4
Changing How the World Views Intelligence
Expert Forum
Shared
Calendar
Shared
Rolodex
Distance
Learning
Virtual
Library
Shared
24/7 Plot
Virtual
Budget
Weekly Review
Information Peacekeeping #5
Changing the Strategic Focus
• Connectivity
everywhere
• Content is digitized
• Coordination of
standards and
investments
• C4 Security across all
eight tribes--public
safety at same level
as safety of secrets
Information Peacekeeping #6:
Creating Infinite Wealth for the Five
Billion at the Bottom of the Pyramid
• Representative Books:
– End of Poverty
– Fortune at the Bottom of the
Pyramid (Prahalad)
– Revolutionary Wealth
– Infinite Wealth
– Wealth of Knowledge
– Wealth of Networks
– How to Change the World
• Major Lecture:
– “Open Everything” at
http://www.oss.net/GNOME
• Today’s economy:
– Seven Trillion/Year
– Focused on 1B “Rich”
– Two Trillion Illicit
• Tomorrow’s economy:
– Ten Trillion/Year
– Focused on 5B Poor
– Transparent Budgets
Eliminate Corruption
– “Green” Capitalism
• “True Cost” Known
• Cradle to Cradle
• Re-Use Not Re-Cycle
Recommendations for Tribunal
• 100MB Internet access for every employee, at
work and at home, is vital to both security &
efficiency.
• Budget for outsourcing commercial decisionsupport, e.g. threat evaluation of The Hague
(three groups: entrenched anti-Tribunal families;
potential host families for incoming terrorists;
and discreetly approached friendly families who
can provide Early Warning.
• Establish a 24/7 Watch Center with a widelypublicized email address and telephone number
with Arabic speaker always on duty even if from
home.
Recommendation for UN
• The Coalition
Coordination Center is
immediately available as
the world’s first
multinational information
sharing and analytic
support center.
• All you have to do is get
each of your Missions to
the UN to raise the need
for such a center which
will not use secret
sources or methods.
United Nations
Early Warning, Multinational Information
Sharing, Decision Support
• Brahimi Report applies
• Secretary General needs
global decision support
network instead of 77 libraries
& isolated data bases
• Information can prevent
conflict, create stabilizing
wealth and possibly fund all
future UN operations through
monetization of information.
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