Public Policy Outlook for
K-12 Instructional Materials
Jay Diskey
Executive Director
AAP School Division
[email protected]
www.aapschool.org
November 2009
2009: The Good, Bad & Ugly
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Recession & Recovery?
State policy impacts
Stimulus Spending
Obama Administration
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Publishers (AAP)
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2010: The Year Ahead
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State Policy Outlook
National/Federal Outlook
Digital transitions
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Publishers (AAP)
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K-12 by the Numbers
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U.S. K-12 school enrollment: 55 million
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Adoption states = 20 (5,400 school districts)
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Non-adoption states = 30 (10,000 districts)
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Total K-12 expenditures = $520 billion annually
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K-12 instructional materials market: $7B to $8B
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K-12 “Core” IM market = $4 billion
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Publishers (AAP)
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K-12 Expenditures
Noninstruction
4%
Support Services
36%
Salaries
44%
Instructional Materials
1%
Source: Census Bureau, NCES, Stifel Nicolaus
Tuition/Other
1%
Purchased Svcs
2%
Employee Benefits
12%
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Publishers (AAP)
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K-12 Net Sales Growth 1989-2008
20.0%
14.8%
14.4%
15.0%
13.3%
11.2%
11.4%
10.3%
10.5%
10.0%
7.8%
6.2%
5.0%
3.3%
2.1%
1.4%
2.7%
2.1%
2.5%
0.1%
0.0%
-5.0%
-4.4%
-5.0%
-5.8%
-7.0%
-10.0%
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8
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0
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2
3
4
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198 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
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Publishers (AAP)
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2009 K-12 Net Sales YTD
(thru August)
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Basal Adoption Net Sales: -35.2%
Basal Non-Adoption Net Sales: -15.6%
Total Basal:-26.1%
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Total Supplemental Net Sales: 2.2%
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Total Basal & Supplemental Net Sales: -21.4% YTD
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Publishers (AAP)
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2009 K-12 IM Market in Review
The worst U.S. economy in 70 years led to:
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Postponement of California’s K-8 reading
adoption & second-year purchase of math. Also,
disruption of the state’s adoption process.
Incomplete implementation of Florida’s language
arts/literature adoption.
Adoption postponements in Kentucky, Oregon,
North Carolina, New Mexico.
Significant funding cut in Illinois.
Consideration of “open source” (OER) initiatives
in several key states.
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Publishers (AAP)
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California Meltdown
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Reading adoption not fully implemented.
Two-year purchase requirement eliminated.
IM funding is “flexible” as long as Williams
sufficiency requirements are met.
IM adoption schedule is frozen through 2013-14
year.
Curriculum Commission unfunded.
Governor new “digital initiative” (i.e. OER)
further clouds the outlook on California.
California is, in effect, an “open territory” with
limited funding.
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Publishers (AAP)
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A Look at 2010
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2010 adoption calendar looks better.
Large adoptions in Texas and Florida are
on track.
Uncertainty over state revenue.
Challenges at the Federal/National levels.
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Publishers (AAP)
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State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases)
STATE
SUBJECTS
Alabama:
K-12 Math, Health, PE, Technology, Career/Technical
Arkansas:
K-12 Fine Arts, Special Education, Agriculture, Family and Consumer Education 9-12
Career and Technology Education
California:
Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008
Florida:
K-12 Math
Georgia:
K-12 Foreign Language, ESOL, 9-12 English Language Arts
Idaho:
Humanities: Interdisciplinary, World Languages, Dance, Music, Drama/Theater, Art,
PE, Health, Drivers Education, Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency
Indiana:
1-12 Math
Kentucky:
P-12 Math
Louisiana:
Agriscience, Business Education, Marketing, Family & Consumer Science, Health
Occupations, Technology Education, Trade & Industrial
Mississippi:
High School Redesign Courses
Nevada:
K-12 Math, Secondary Language Arts, Secondary Health
New Mexico:
K-8 Language Arts/Reading, CORE Reading Intervention, Modern, Classical and Native
Languages
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Publishers (AAP)
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State Adoptions 2010 (scheduled purchases)
STATE
SUBJECT
North Carolina:
6-8 Math, Foreign Languages, Sign Language, Spanish for Native Speakers, Agriculture
Education, Exploring Biotechnology, K-8 ESL
Oklahoma:
K-12 + AP Math
Oregon:
9-12 Science, Math
South Carolina:
K-5 Language Arts, 9-12 Math, Science, Social Studies,PE, Graphic Communication,
Information Technology,
Marketing Management, Business Management and
Administration, AP Computer Science
Tennessee:
English Language Arts, ESL, Communication, Foreign Languages
Texas:
K-1 ELA/SLA and Reading, 2-5 Reading, 6-8 Reading (elective), 6-12 Literature,
6 Span.Literature, ESOL I and II, 9-12 English Language Proficiency
Teachers Editions AP English Language, English Literature, IB
Standard and Higher Level
Standards,
Language Studies,
Utah:
K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring
Virginia:
History and Social Sciences
West Virginia:
K-12 Math, Vocational Agriculture, Family & Consumer Science
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Publishers (AAP)
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State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases)
STATE
SUBJECTS
Alabama
K-12 Social Studies
Arkansas
K-12 English Language Arts
California
Williams Settlement – Materials adopted before July 1, 2008
Florida
K-12 Science
Georgia
K-12 Social Studies, Fine Arts, Health & PE
Idaho
Social Studies, Economics, Character Education, Psychology, Sociology,
Computer Applications, Limited English Proficiency
Indiana
1-12 Science, Health
Kentucky
P-12 Practical Living and Vocation Studies
Louisiana
K-12 Science, Computer Education, CTE Journey to Careers
Mississippi
Literature, Reading
Nevada
Elementary Language Arts, Secondary Language Arts and Health
New Mexico
Social Studies, Library/Reference, NM and Native American Art and Culture
North Carolina
NO ADOPTION/EVALUATION PROCESS
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Publishers (AAP)
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State Adoptions 2011 (scheduled purchases)
STATE
SUBJECTS
Oklahoma
K-12 + AP: Language Arts
Oregon
K-12 Second Languages
South Carolina
K-5 Health and Safety, 9-12 Math, Social Studies, K-12 Self-Contained Educable Mentally
Disabled, Business Management and Administration, Information Technology, Human
Services, Health Science, Industrial Systems and Technology
Tennessee
Math, Computer Science
Texas
PreK Systems, 2-8 ELA, 2-6 SLA, 6-8 Speech, English I-IV, K-8 ESL, 1-2 Spell
(consumable), 3-6 Spell (nonconsumable), 1-3 Handwriting, 6-8 Speech
Utah
K-6 Language Arts, Math plus Agriculture and C&T in the Spring
Virginia
Math
West Virginia
K-12 Social Studies
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What’s Ahead for State Budgets?
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State tax collections for the 2Q ‘09 showed a
record drop of –16.6%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
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48 states face budget shortfalls.
(Source: Center for Budget
& Policy Priorities)
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State budget gaps total 24% as a share of total
state budgets. (Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities)
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Publishers (AAP)
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Use of Federal Stimulus Funds
in the K-12 Classroom
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52%
28%
23%
17%
12%
10%
10%
Save teaching positions.
Professional development.
Classroom technology.
Classroom equipment.
School repairs.
Software/machines.
Textbooks.
(Source: AASA)
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Publishers (AAP)
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Additional Challenges for 2010
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New administration in Washington.
OER – “open educational resources.”
Transition to digital materials.
Piracy.
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Publishers (AAP)
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Federal/National Challenges
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Common national standards.
No Child Left Behind reauthorization.
Race to the Top innovation fund.
Obama Administration themes.
Influence of national foundations.
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Publishers (AAP)
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OER Defined
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Open educational resources (OER) are
instructional materials freely available for
use, remixing and distribution.
The term “OER" was first adopted at
UNESCO’s 2002 Forum on the Impact of
Open Courseware for Higher Education in
Developing Countries (funded by the
Hewlett Foundation).
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Publishers (AAP)
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OER Providers & Proponents
www.curriki.org
 www.ck12.org
 www.merlot.org
 www.opened.creativecommons.org
 www.oercommons.org
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Publishers (AAP)
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OER Claims & Characteristics
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Free!
Usually digital/electronic. Belief that digital
should be “free.”
Open license allows for collaboration and
remixing.
Easy to update.
Foundation funding and now government
funding.
Adoption of OER could save states and districts
money (maybe, but at what cost?).
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Publishers (AAP)
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OER Drawbacks
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Are the OER materials developed by trusted,
known, expert sources?
Are the materials accurate?
Are the materials aligned with state standards?
Are they based on current research?
Can OER provide a comprehensive curriculum
with content, scope & sequence?
Are the materials really “open” or are the
collaborations a form of collective piracy?
Do schools have the technology infrastructure to
go fully digital?
What about the MSST?
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Publishers (AAP)
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Current OER Initiatives
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Schwarzenegger's “digital” initiative.
Texas (H.B. 2488) “Hochberg Bill.”
Virginia “flexbook” initiative.
Washington state/Gates Foundation
initiative.
Federal student loan bill (Sec. 505).
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Publishers (AAP)
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OER & Digital Implications
for Manufacturers
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Further erosion of traditional K-12 print
market.
Implications for state funding and
adoptions.
MSST issues.
But, print-on-demand opportunities will
likely increase.
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Publishers (AAP)
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Wrap Up
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Publishers (AAP)
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Contact
Jay Diskey
Executive Director
AAP School Division
[email protected]
www.aapschool.org
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Publishers (AAP)
28
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Public Policy Outlook for K-12 Instructional Materials