The future of export led growth: is the
financial crisis revealing its limits?:
Latin America and the Caribbean
Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace
29 June 2009
Jorge Máttar
Director a. i.
ECLAC México
Contents
1. Background: from import substitution to
export promotion.
2. Trade and output perfomance.
3. Impact of the international crisis in LAC.
4. Final remarks and perspectives.
LAC exports growth is comparable to SEA.
From 1990 X growth in LAC is the fastest
Average annual growth rates of exports, 1980-2006
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Área del euro América Latina Sudeste de
y el Caribe
Asia
Source: WB
África
subsahariana
Mundo
LAC: two-digit growth rates of exports after
1990, but imports are more dynamic
Average annual growth rates, 1990-2008
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Argentina
Brasil
Chile
Costa Rica
Exportaciones
El Salvador
Importaciones
México
Rep.
Dominicana
And economic growth has not been as high
as it was expected
Average annual growth rates of GDP, 1990-2007
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Fuente: CEPAL, los datos del PIB están en dólares constantes
Rep.
Dominicana
Nicaragua
México
Guatemala
El Salvador
Costa Rica
Colombia
Chile
Brasil
Argentina
0.0
Xs are more dynamic than GDP…until mid
2000s: the end of X-led growth?
Annual growth rate
14.0
7.0
12.0
6.0
10.0
5.0
8.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Exportaciones
PIB
Note that trends are very influenced by Mexico´s trade performance.
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-1.0
1993
-4.0
1992
0.0
1991
-2.0
Current situation and perspectives
• International crisis already affecting LAC
international trade.
• Effects depend on macroeconomic
strengths (fiscal, monetary, Xrate, foreign debt), trade
patterns and modalities of insertion into
the world economy:
– Trade: goods, services, even labor.
– FDI.
– Integration; regional cooperation, open regionalism.
The exposure to trade varies in LAC
Degree of openness (X/GDP)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
1985: Xs/PIB
30.0
2005: Xs/PIB
20.0
10.0
0.0
Source ECLAC. Exports includes only goods.
World trade will fall in 2009: the effect is not
the same in LAC
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: Canasta de
exportaciones de bienes, 2006
(En porcentajes)
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: Distribución
geográfica de las exportaciones de manufacturas,
2006
(En porcentajes)
100
100
90
90
25,9
80
80
70
54,8
55,6
85,2
50
38,1
64,6
55,9
60
50
40
40
74,1
30
20
28,5
70
74,7
60
9,5
45,2
30
44,4
71,5
20
25,3
10
90,5
14,8
0
61,9
35,4
44,1
10
0
América
Latina y el
Caribe
América
del Sur
Manufacturas
Centroamérica
México
El Caribe
Productos básicos
A mérica
Latina y el
Caribe
A mérica del
Sur
Países desarrollados
Centro américa
M éxico
El Caribe
Economías emergentes
… the same at the country level…
EXPORTACIONES DE BIENES
HACIA PAÍSES DESARROLLADOS, 2006
En porcentajes del PIB
EXPORTACIONES DE BIENES SEGÚN DESTINO, 2006
En porcentajes del PIB
México
México
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Honduras
Chile
Chile
Costa Rica
Perú
Venezuela (Rep. Bol. de)
Brasil
Honduras
Bolivia
Perú
Uruguay
Nicaragua
Ecuador
Bolivia
Colombia
Colombia
Uruguay
Argentina
Argentina
El Salvador
Brasil
Nicaragua
Panamá
Paraguay
Guatemala
Guatemala
El Salvador
Venezuela (Rep. Bol. de)
Paraguay
Panamá
0
5
Países desarrollados
10
15
20
25
Países en desarrollo
30
0
5
Primarios
10
15
Manufacturas
20
Terms of trade will be less favourable in
South America
AMÉRICA LATINA (19): TÉRMINOS DE INTERCAMBIO, 2008-2009
En tasas de variación anual
24
20,9
20
16
12
8
5,9
4,6
4,9
4
2,1
2,8
0
-4
-3,4
-8
-7,5
-12
-16
-5,3
-7,5
-12,8
-20
-18,6
-24
-28
-27,2
-32
-30,5
América Latina (19 países)
América del Sur (10 países)
Mercosur (4 países)
2008
Chile+Perú
2009
Bolivia+Colombia+Ecuador+
Venezuela (Rep. Bol. de)
Centroamérica (8 países)
(Estimaciones para 2009)
México
Effects on exports performance will also depend
on the diversification of markets
(share of exports)
Países
Argentina
Brasil/1
Paraguay
Uruguay
América Latina
40.8
25.5
60.2
36.0
Estados Unidos
16.5
17.7
3.3
19.1
Unión Europea
13.7
22.5
6.1
17.8
Asia
13.7
14.6
5.8
7.8
Bolivia
Colombia
Ecuador/1
Perú/1
65.6
32.6
30.4
20.4
13.5
41.6
49.0
24.7
6.3
13.6
12.2
17.6
9.4
4.3
2.0
20.9
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
22.7
40.5
46.7
26.1
34.3
43.2
16.6
37.0
46.0
38.3
17.5
4.3
5.9
21.4
14.2
14.7
0.5
3.7
3.4
2.8
México/1
República Dominicana/1/2
Chile
Panamá/1
Venezuela
Cuba
5.2
5.2
17.3
18.1
7.8
22.9
84.3
73.3
15.7
40.2
54.6
0.0
4.6
14.3
24.8
31.7
6.1
30.1
2.2
5.3
32.5
6.6
4.2
4.5
/1 El dato se refiere al promedio de los años 2005-2007, para el resto de los paises el promedio es
para los años 2004-2006
/2 Los datos de República Dominicana se tomaron a partir de datos espejo
Fuente: CEPAL
Intra-regional trade as a means to face fall in
global trade?
30
30
Comunidad Andina (5)
MERCOSUR
Mercado Común Centroamericano
CARICOM
25
25
América Latina y el Caribe
20
20
15
15
10
10
Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de cifras oficiales de los países. Los datos del Mercado Común
Centroamericano excluyen las exportaciones de Maquila.
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
2001
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1993
1994
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1986
1987
1985
1984
1983
0
1982
0
1981
5
1980
5
Intra-regional trade is more intensive in
manufacturing than exports to the rest of the world
(Exports structure, 2006)
100%
80%
60%
Recursos naturales
Manufacturas
40%
20%
0%
MERCOSUR CAN
MCCA CARICOM
Comercio intrasubregional
Source: ECLAC.
MERCOSUR CAN
MCCA CARICOM
Comercio extrasubregional
LAC also exports labor … and
remittances are falling
Small economies are the most affected by fall in
remittances
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: TRANSFERENCIAS CORRIENTES (CRÉDITO), 2007
En porcentajes del PIB y millones de dólares
7,000
35
Millones de dólares
Porcentajes del PIB
Venezuela
Brasil
Argentina
Uruguay
Panamá
Chile
Perú
México
Colombia
0
Costa Rica
0
Paraguay
5
Granada
1,000
Ecuador
10
R. Dominicana
2,000
Bolivia
15
Belice
3,000
Guatemala
20
Nicaragua
4,000
El Salvador
25
Jamaica
5,000
Honduras
30
Haití
6,000
Guyana
Millones de dólares
40
24 423
millones
Porcentajes del PIB
8,000
… some countries already show a sharp
decline
REMESAS
tasas de crecimiento interanuales (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-1 0
-1 5
-2 0
1er. trim. 2008
E c uado r
3do. trim. 2008
N ic a ragu a
G ua te m a la
3er. trim. 2008
E l S a lv ado r
R ep . D o m in ic an a
4to. trim. 2008
M é xic o
J a m a ic a
Fall in tourism will be more severe for small
economies in the Caribbean
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: EXPORTACIÓN DE SERVICIOS ASOCIADOS AL TURISMO, 2007
En porcentajes del PIB
América Latina y el Caribe
Trinidad and Tobago
Suriname
San Vincent and the
Santa Lucia
San Kitts and Nevis
Jamaica
Guyana
Granada
Dominica
Belice
Barbados
Bahamas
Caribe
Mexico
Republica Dominicana
Panama
Nicaragua
Honduras
Haiti
Guatemala
El Salvador
Costa Rica
Centroamérica
Venezuela (R.B.)
Uruguay
Peru
Paraguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Chile
Brazil
Bolivia
Argentina
América del Sur
40.8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FDI decline will also be more significant for
small economies
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: INVERSIÓN EXTRANJERA DIRECTA NETA, 2008
En porcentajes del PIB
24.7%
21.8%
Antigua y Barbuda
Granada
16.0
15.9
San Vicente y las Granadinas
Saint Kitts y Nevis
Dominica
14.6
9.5
Belice
Panamá
7.8
7.0
6.5
Bahamas
Costa Rica
5.4
5.1
5.0
Chile
Peru
Rep. Dominicana
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
Honduras
Uruguay
Nicaragua
Colombia
2.8
2.3
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.3
0.9
0.7
Mexico
Bolivia
Guatemala
Brasil
Argentina
Ecuador
Paraguay
El Salvador
Haití
Venezuela
-1.2
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Final remarks
• X-led growth did not produce expected results in
terms of GDP growth.
• Lack of policies for strengthening linkages
between X and domestic production,
competitiveness, other productive development
polices.
• Present slump in world trade is expected to last
several years =>
• LAC can no longer rely on a strategy based on X
alone. A more balanced approach is needed…
Final remarks 2
• Diversify markets and product mix.
• Intra-regional trade and other integration
modalities.
• Domestic markets (medium and large
economies).
• Innovation, competitiveness & productive
development policies.
• Strengthening linkages between large and
SMI.
Thank you
[email protected]
www.cepal.org
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