Beyond Blogs and Social Networks
New Technologies & New Ideas
December 1, 2005
Jonathan Carson
President & CEO
[email protected]
(646) 253-1901
BuzzMetrics Overview
About BuzzMetrics
•
Proprietary software to identify, gather, process millions of unaided online
conversations (forums, blogs, email lists, review sites, etc.)
•
BuzzMetrics has performed WOM research and planning for 50 F1000’s.
•
Clients include GM, HP, JetBlue, Comcast, Whirlpool, Mazda, 14 of top 15
pharmas, 7 of top 10 food companies, etc.
•
Recognized leaders: co-founders of Word of Mouth Marketing Association;
featured in CBS News, NY Times, WSJ, Economist, NPR, many more.
•
SEPTEMBER 2005: BuzzMetrics acquired by Trendum, emerging
competitor backed strategically and financially by VNU.
About WOMMA
2
•
Founded 2004; over 120 member companies.
•
Hugely successful inaugural conference in March 2005.
•
Main priorities: Standards & Metrics; Ethics guidelines; industry education.
[Private and Confidential]
How important are these
New Technologies & New Ideas?
How important are blogs?
A new blog is created every second
Source: Technorati
How important are social networks?
MySpace has 50% more traffic than Google
It should surpass MSN and AOL
within a few months
Only Yahoo will have more
Source: Comscore
How important are wikis?
Wikipedia is #1 online reference site
By a long shot
Double the traffic of #2 Dictionary.com
Five times the traffic of Encarta
Source: Hitwise
How important are podcasts?
5 million U.S. podcast users in 2005 (up 500%)
Forecasted to grow to 63 million by 2010
XM and Sirius have about 7mm subscribers…
… and a combined market cap of $16 billion
Source: Bridge Ratings, Yahoo! Finance
How important is photo sharing?
June 2205: Flickr had 19.5 million photos,
80% of which are shared publicly
At current growth rate, over 75 million photos
available for public download by end of 2005
Getty Images, world's largest image archive,
has 70 million images for sale…
…And a $5.7 billion market cap
Source: Internet News, Yahoo! Finance
How important are these
New Technologies?
?
The bigger point:
The role of consumers
in media and marketing
has fundamentally changed.
A powerful global conversation has begun. Through the Internet,
people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant
knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are
getting smarter—and getting smarter faster than most
companies.
These markets are conversations.
-- The Cluetrain Manifesto (1999)
Word of Mouth: Dominant new marketing force
Official WOMMA Definitions
What is “word of mouth”?
One consumer passing marketing-relevant information to
other consumers.
What is “word of mouth marketing”?
Any marketing effort designed to affect the ways in which one
consumer passes information to other consumers.
17
[Private and Confidential]
Why is WOM an important media channel?
Consumers trust WOM dramatically more than other media.
The website
Factors make you most
comfortable purchasing a
product?
- Mediaedge
Best source for advice on
a new product:
- Yankelovich
8%
Advertisement
15%
Newspaper/Magazine recommended it
22%
A friend recommended it
76%
Television
Newspaper/Magazine
21%
26%
Info services (e.g. Consumer Reports)
35%
Another consumer
67%
2005
1977
Best source for new ideas
about products:
- NOP
18
[Private and Confidential]
Editorial
47%
Editorial
40%
Advertising
53%
Advertising
50%
67%
Word of
Mouth
92%
Word of
Mouth
Why is online WOM becoming so powerful
1.) Channel is large and growing
•
44% of online U.S. adults – over 50 million Americans – are “content
creators” [Pew Internet]
•
Virtually all online consumers encounter consumer generated content.
•
8% of online adults blog; 27% of online adults read blogs [Pew Internet]
2.) Internet increases power of consumer influencers
•
Consumer influencers able to dramatically increase their reach.
•
Consumers seeking help from consumer experts can find them much more
easily.
3.) Consumer content increasingly dominates Internet
content.
19
[Private and Confidential]
Consumer content dominates Internet
Jupiter Research found that 26% of top search results for world’s
twenty largest brands is consumer-generated.
Other (affiliate, etc.),
22%
Corporate content,
18%
Media content, 12%
Consumer
generated content,
26%
Expert content, 22%
Source: Jupiter Research
20
[Private and Confidential]
FACT #1:
Consumers trust the opinion of other consumers
more than they trust
advertising,
spokespeople,
unbiased “expert” third parties,
or the traditional media.
FACT #2:
New technology tools have
made it remarkably easy
for consumers to create media
to share with other consumers.
FACT #3:
New technology tools have
also made it remarkably easy
for consumers to find the media
created by other consumers.
RAMIFICATION:
To effectively reach consumers in the future,
companies must enter into the global conversation.
What’s the first thing you do if you want to enter a
conversation?
You listen.
Four things you can do
by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz…
Four things you can do
by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz…
Case Study: Nutrition buzz
The Situation
Food co’s miss several major nutrition trends b/c have no way
to track grassroots, consumer-driven movements.
Opportunity
Study buzz on nutrition as predictive tool.
Solution
Identify 500 most influential nutrition consumers and study
nutrition issues they talk about most frequently.
27
[Private and Confidential]
Current trend: Death of Low Carb
90%
9%
80%
8%
70%
7%
60%
6%
50%
5%
40%
4%
30%
3%
20%
2%
10%
1%
0%
0%
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Influencer Panel
Conscientious Consumer
Head of Household
28
[Private and Confidential]
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Dieters
Nutrition Experts
Early Majority Panel
Q4 2004
Diabetics
Fitness Buffs
Q1 2005
Early Majority
Influencer Panel
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “Low Carb”
Current trend: Death of Low Carb
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “Atkins Diet”
80%
12%
70%
10%
60%
40%
6%
30%
4%
20%
2%
10%
0%
0%
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Influencer Panel
Conscientious Consumer
Head of Household
29
[Private and Confidential]
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Dieters
Nutrition Experts
Early Majority Panel
Q4 2004
Diabetics
Fitness Buffs
Q1 2005
Early Majority
Influencer Panel
8%
50%
Current trend: Death of Low Carb
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “South Beach Diet”
60%
8%
7%
50%
6%
5%
30%
4%
3%
20%
2%
10%
1%
0%
0%
Q4 2003
Q1 2004
Influencer Panel
Conscientious Consumer
Head of Household
30
[Private and Confidential]
Q2 2004
Q3 2004
Dieters
Nutrition Experts
Early Majority Panel
Q4 2004
Diabetics
Fitness Buffs
Q1 2005
Early Majority
Influencer Panel
40%
Current trend: Rise of portion control
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “portion control”
50%
1.2%
45%
1.0%
40%
0.8%
30%
25%
0.6%
20%
0.4%
15%
10%
0.2%
5%
0%
0.0%
Q4/2003
Q1/2004
Nutrition Panel
Dieters
Nutrition Experts
31
[Private and Confidential]
Q2/2004
Q3/2004
Conscientious Consumer
Fitness Buffs
Early Majority
Q4/2004
Q1/2005
Diabetes
Head of Household
Early Majority
Influencer Panel
35%
Current trend: Rise of portion control
Diets most frequently linked to portion control.
35%
33%
30%
27%
25%
20%
14%
15%
9%
10%
7%
5%
5%
3%
2%
1%
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[Private and Confidential]
B
32
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ie
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0%
Four things you can do
by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz….
Case Study: BuzzMetrics/Pew Political Buzz
Three primary research goals:
(1) Uncover learnings about political blogs.
(2) Study increasing ability of individuals
to instigate “civic storms”.
(3) Understand affect of civic storms
on National agenda.
34
[Private and Confidential]
Cross media channel analysis
1.) Political Blogs
•
40 A List political blogs.
•
18,000 posts.
2.) Citizen Chatter
•
15 discussion forums.
•
2.1 million comments.
3.) Mainstream Media
•
16 outlets, including print, TV, online, radio.
4.) Campaigns
•
35
Bush and Kerry blogs, newsrooms; DNC/RNC newsrooms.
[Private and Confidential]
Targeted discussion topic analysis
FIGURE: Top 20 Blogger Issues
Unaided research
environment allows highly
targeted topic analysis.
36
[Private and Confidential]
Freq.
%
Iraq: General Situation
183
13.1%
Horserace: Debate
176
12.6%
Horserace: Voters
172
12.3%
Horserace: Poll
165
11.8%
Social: Media
158
11.3%
Foreign Affairs: Terrorism
148
10.6%
Character Trait: Kerry
144
10.3%
Iraq: US Troops
111
7.9%
Character Trait: Bush
110
7.9%
Govt: Bush Admin
110
7.9%
Horserace: Swing States
91
6.5%
Iraq: WMD
87
6.2%
Govt: Intelligence
77
5.5%
Govt: Policy
75
5.4%
Iraq: Saddam
74
5.3%
Horserace: VP Candidate
57
4.1%
Horserace: Strategy
55
3.9%
Govt: Homeland Security
55
3.9%
Govt: Military
52
3.7%
Foreign Affairs: Europe
51
3.6%
TOTAL N
1,400
Some buzz storms are constant and intense
Buzz for “Iraq”
40%
100%
90%
80%
30%
60%
20%
50%
40%
30%
10%
20%
10%
0%
9/
1/
20
9/ 04
5/
20
9/ 04
9/
2
9/ 004
13
/2
9/ 004
17
/2
9/ 004
21
/2
9/ 004
25
/2
9/ 004
29
/2
10 004
/3
/2
10 004
/7
/
10 200
4
/1
1/
10 200
4
/1
5/
2
0
10
/1 04
9/
10 200
4
/2
3/
10 200
4
/2
7/
2
0
10
/3 04
1/
20
04
0%
Conservative Chatter
General Blogs
37
[Private and Confidential]
General Chatter
Liberal Blogs
Liberal Chatter
Kerry
Conservative Blogs
Bush
Campaign Output
Chatter & Blogs
70%
Other storms are brief and pass quickly
Buzz for “missing explosives controversy”
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10/23/04
10/27/04
10/31/04
General Blogs
General Chatter
Bush Campaign
38
[Private and Confidential]
11/4/04
11/8/04
Liberal Blogs
Liberal Chatter
Kerry Campaign
11/12/04
11/16/04
Conservative Blogs
Conservative Chatter
Media
11/20/04
Buzz origination can be dissected
Correlation between media channels
.45
.37
.41
LIB
CON
.54
.42
.39
.82
.26
.50
.65
.30
.78
.09
.34
KERRY
.26
MEDIA
.13
BUSH
.56
.45
.42
.40
.66
.45
.56
.34
.64
.22
.58
.81
[Private and Confidential]
CON
.34
.63
.34
.89
39
GEN
LIB
.63
.54
.38
.79
Buzz paths can be understood
Need to pursue our finding that topic preference
of bloggers correspond more with
those of the citizen chatterers
and MSM than the latter two
did with each other.
40
[Private and Confidential]
Bloggers used buzz to keep Rathergate alive
* 9/10 – 9/19: Conservative bloggers stayed with the forgery topic more than
liberals.
* 9/21: Interest for all groups surges in response to CBS apology.
15%
6
10%
4
5%
2
0%
0
41
[Private and Confidential]
Conservative Chatter
Bush
Liberal Blogs
Kerry
/2
/2
0
04
10
30
/2
0
9/
28
/2
0
9/
26
/2
0
9/
24
/2
0
9/
22
/2
0
9/
20
/2
0
9/
18
/2
0
9/
16
/2
0
9/
14
/2
0
9/
12
/2
0
04
9/
10
/2
0
9/
9/
8/
20
Liberal Chatter
Media Articles
Conservative Blogs
Campaign Output & Media
8
04
20%
04
10
04
25%
04
12
04
30%
04
14
04
35%
04
16
04
40%
04
18
04
Chatter & Blogs
FIGURE: Conversation share of Rathergate issue.
45%
Four things you can do
by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz….
Case Study: Large appliance manufacturer
The Situation
1. Manufacturer begins to receive fan mail for a washing
machine.
2. Seriously. They were shocked too.
3. Beyond fan mail, anecdotal reports of evangelism filter in.
Manufacturer turns to online to better understand this
phenomenon.
43
•
How big was it?
•
Who were these consumers?
•
What was driving this?
•
How could they leverage it?
[Private and Confidential]
Surprising findings about existing buzz igniters
WOM Strategy Takeaway
» Focus in on & amplify organic interest in product among males.
Who Are The Most Passionate Owners?
Unknown
3%
Female
49%
Source: BuzzMetrics Research
44
[Private and Confidential]
Male
48%
Understand why buzz already happening
WOM Strategy Must
» Natural desire to share ‘war stories’ and proof points.
What Do Passionate Owners Talk About?
Provide Usage Reports
23%
Misc Duet Banter
18%
Promote/Sway
14%
Complementary products
13%
Provide Usage Tips
8%
Seek/Provide Product Info
7%
Seek Tech Support
5%
Request Features
4%
Give Tech Support
4%
Seeks Usage Tips
3%
FL/TL debates
2%
0%
45
[Private and Confidential]
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Source: BuzzMetrics Research
“I have played with my machine in the past.
Testing its limitations.”
That Home Site, 2003-10-08
“The stuff you can wash is amazing. Stuffed
animals…antique quilts, comforters, electric
blankets, 22 towels (it is true)....
I'm still much in love.”
Epinions – Washing Machines, 2003-09-22
Marketing programs amplify natural buzz
Examples of what people report challenging the machine with:
» 3' x 5' area rug
» Satin dance/drill uniform
» 10 yard piece of fabric
» Sleeping bags
» Stuffed animals
The Result:
» 22 towels
» Cat/Pet Bedding
Sponsorships & grassroots activities
» Sneakers
with key little league/youth sport
» Little league uniforms
» Little league uniforms
» Little league uniforms
47
[Private and Confidential]
organizations.
Four things you can do
by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz….
Case Study: Oprah Car Giveaway
How strongly are consumers linking GM to the Oprah event?
90%
84%
80%
74%
70%
64%
60%
50%
56%
46% 46%
40%
36%
30%
20%
14%
14%
8%
10%
10%
12%
12%
4%
6%
0%
0%
GM Segment
Source: BuzzMetrics Research
49
[Private and Confidential]
General Auto Segment
GM
Pontiac
Competitive Auto
Segment
G6
No Link
General Interest
Buzz tracking is crucial
AT FIRST:
“Bottom line: It was a win-win situation for Oprah and Pontiac. For whatever Pontiac
paid, they'll get their money back and more.”
Car and Driver Forums, 2004-09-15
BUT THEN:
“The G6 should be renamed the Pontiac Oprah. Because of its close association with
Oprah, this will be a chick car and not a guy's car.”
GMInsidenews.com, 2004-09-16
“It would've been nice for Oprah or GM to pay for EVERYTHING.”
Free Republic, 2004-09-22
“So they sell the car, pay the 7G's and then use the other 20G's left to buy a different
car. They can get a Civic for 14, which is a better car anyway.”
Runners World, 2004-09-22
50
[Private and Confidential]
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