Latin American Carbon Forum
San José–Costa Rica
“Carbon trading beyond 2012; new
approaches and emerging market
instruments”
Juan Mata Sandoval
irector General de Políticas de Cambio Climático
SEMARNAT
27 de septiembre 2011
Programa Especial de Cambio Climático 2009-2012
Publicado en DOF el 28 de agosto de 2009
MITIGACIÓN
•Corto plazo: Define acciones de mitigación que
reducirán 51 Mt CO2e/año en 2012 (6% respecto a
linea de base (786 Mt CO2e)
•Largo plazo: establece líneas generales para
mitigación hacia 2030-2050.
•Todas las NAMAs cuentan con recursos federales
y se complementan con recursos del MDL para
algunas metas (5-10%)
•Se requiere apoyo para implementar mejoras en
MRV.
Elaborado por: DGPCC- SEMARNAT
PECC. Long-term vision
Mexican mitigation pathway
The long-term
aspirational goal…
• Is not a legally
binding
commitment
• It is conditioned to:
• Int. Finance
(markets
included)
• Technology
transfer
• International
agreements
The indicative goal states that, if the international community were determined to
successfully face the immense challenge that climate change poses, Mexico would be
ready to fulfill its corresponding part.
PECC. Mitigation goals
Annual reductions by 2012: 50.7 MtCO2e
Waste
11%
Energy supply
36%
Agriculture,
forests and
other land uses
30%
Energy use
23%
Sectors with CDM participation: Power,
buildings, and waste 5-10%
Avance al 3er bimestre 2011 y prospectivas
2011 y 2012
Al tercer bimestre 2011:
• Se han reducido 34.80 MtCO2e/año
• 68.69% de avance respecto a meta 2012 (50.66 MtCO2e/año)
Prospectiva al 2012
• Se espera un ligero sobre cumplimiento de la meta total (51.41
MtCO2e/año = 101%)
68.69% =
34.80
MtCO2e/año
Meta PECC
100% = 50.66
MtCO2e/año
Generación de energía
Consumo de energía
Prospectiva 2011
38.53 MtCO2e/año
AFOLU
Desechos
Prospectiva 2012
51.41 MtCO2e/año
CDM projects in Mexico (08/11/2011)
Registered projects: 3,355
Emitted CERs
World total : 685.48 MtCO2e
Country
Emitted CERs
Corea, 2%
Malasia 3%
Otros,
19%
México 4%
Brasil, 6%
India, 21%
China,
45%
China
57.8%
India
14.7%
South Korea
10.9%
Brazil
8.2%
Mexico
1.3%
Others
7.0%
CDM Projects in Mexico
 Mexico has 131 registered projects, mostly from waste management in swine
farms (74).
 Around 67% of the CERs* obtained are from 1 project of HFCs incineration
processes.
Registered Projects
Category
CERs obtained
Expected CERs
No. of projects
tCO2e/year
No. of projects
tCO2e/year
Wind
3
708,301
11
3,036,660
Hydroelectric
3
371,567
3
118,844
Industrial gases emissions
2
6,258,704
2
2,540,280
Methane fugitive emissions
-
-
1
82,645
Waste management in swine farms
25
1,514,162
74
2,253,434
Waste management in dairy farms
2
15,316
17
160,441
Municipal Landfill sites
3
393,683
16
1,942,406
Municipal waste water treatment
-
-
1
15,153
Energy Efficiency
1
120,859
4
273,002
Fuel Substitution
-
-
1
47,043
Programmatic CDM
-
-
1
24,283
39
9,382,592
131
10,494,191
TOTAL**
* CERs: Certified EmissionsstReduction
** Last updated on August 31 , 2011
The size of the Challenge
 Mexico,s voluntary pledge stated in the Copenhagen Accord
“up to 30% reduction of national GHG emissions from baseline
by 2020”
 Equals to approx. 264 MtonCO2e/year reduction from baseline
by 2020
 5 times the effort of PECC (4 year program) in 8 years.
 Will require massive domestic and international financial
assistance
 Carbon market will be a key player (at least 1/3 of the effort ~90
MtonCO2/year)
 Will the markets generate that level of demand? (ETS won´t be
bying CER´s from Mexico post 2012).
 Will the effort sold to the markets still be accounted for
national voluntary pledge?
Some issues to be solved
 Solve accountability issues between voluntary pledges
and reductions sold to the market (prevent double
counting)
 Capacity of players (DNA, project developers, DOE´s,
etc) should be build up using lessons learned from the
CDM cycle.
 MRV systems should be fostered, at the same time
registry of new mechanisms should flexibilize without
damaging accountability
 Private sector involvement on mitigationa national
efforts
 Promote more participation of public sector in the
carbon markets
NAMAs potenciales en México
Vivienda
• Estudio para apoyar a México en la identificación de acciones de eficiencia
energética en el sector habitacional que se sustenten en el esquema de una
NAMA.
Transporte
• Identificar propuestas de posibles NAMAs
• desarrollar una NAMA de un proyecto de transporte existentes o en
desarrollo.
Industria del CEMENTO
• Incremento relación clinker en mezcla
• reemplazo de combustibles con alto contenido de carbono
Industria del ACERO
• Regulaciones para nuevas instalaciones productivas
• Medidas de eficiencia energética para instalaciones en operación
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